Prediction for the 2026 U.S. Senate midterm elections

Seat 1: North Carolina North Carolina is a slightly Republican-leaning swing state, where the Republican base outnumbers the Democratic base by 1–4 percentage points. Yet it remains the easiest seat for Democrats to flip. Former Democratic Governor Roy Cooper is a formidable candidate—highly visible in the state, well-funded, and positioning himself as a moderate, making him the strongest Democratic contender locally. In contrast, Republican candidate Chuck Walther has low name recognition and only middling qualifications; he lacks standout achievements and fails to attract significant centrist support—though he also has no major liabilities and is expected to hold his base. Cooper is favored to win. Prediction: Lean Democratic—Democrats 50%–53%, Republicans 45.5%–48.5%. Seat 2: Maine Maine is a light-blue state, with Democrats holding a 6–10-point advantage in base support over Republicans. However, Senator Susan Collins is no ordinary candidate: she has served in the Senate since 1997 and has repeatedly defeated strong Democratic challengers—even during Republican “headwind” years like 2008 and 2020—consistently outperforming polls. Her long-standing image as a moderate and deep local roots are her greatest strengths. On the Democratic side, chaos reigns: candidate Jackson was hastily elevated by party elites without undergoing a primary process, suffers from low name recognition, and faces serious questions about legitimacy. Earlier, Democratic nominee Plaisted withdrew amid scandal. Collins is favored to retain her seat. Prediction: Slight lean Republican—Democrats 46%–49%, Republicans 49%–52%. Seat 3: Georgia Georgia is a classic swing state—once solidly red, it has gradually turned bluer since 2008, though Republicans still hold a narrow ~1-point edge in base support. Democratic incumbent Jon Ossoff is exceptionally strong, far outpacing Republican challenger Mike Collins in fundraising and media attention. Yet Ossoff’s Senate record is notably progressive, and he frequently criticizes Republican colleagues—unlike many Democratic senators from swing states who engage in cross-party cooperation and avoid personal attacks on opponents. His lack of any discernible moderation leaves Republican base voters with little choice but to reluctantly back Collins—even if unenthusiastic—even as Collins benefits from the strong performance of the Republican gubernatorial candidate. Collins may lose, but likely not by a wide margin; a runoff is plausible. Prediction: Lean Democratic—Democrats 49%–52%, Republicans 46%–49%; ~40% chance of a runoff. Seat 4: Michigan Michigan is a slightly Democratic-leaning swing state—once moderately blue, it turned red after 2016, yet Democrats still maintain a 2–5-point base advantage. However, Democrats nominated Farid Abdel-Sayed, an extremely progressive Muslim candidate who has expressed sympathy toward extremist religious groups—an inflammatory stance that has handed Republicans an opening. Their candidate, Rogers, is a high-quality contender with years of service in the House and broad support among moderates. Still, Democrats’ deep institutional roots and superior grassroots mobilization in Michigan remain formidable: since Reagan, no Republican has won a presidential or Senate race in the state except Donald Trump. Democrats may prevail through sheer institutional strength and base loyalty—but Rogers’ chances are equally substantial.

Will the U.S. Congress vote on legislation limiting the president’s war powers have practical significance? What internal governmental problems does it expose?

Its practical significance is limited: even with Democratic senators plus potentially defection from some Republicans, the two-thirds supermajority (67 votes) required to override a presidential veto remains highly unlikely in the Senate. That said, with midterm elections approaching, Democrats may leverage this issue for political messaging and campaign mobilization. Don’t underestimate the U.S. Congress: in theory, its powers vastly exceed those of the president. Yet Congress comprises over 500 members split across two chambers—making coordinated action difficult. Thus, presidents rely on support from their own party’s legislators to advance priorities—but must reciprocate with favors and concessions in return. A president lacking congressional backing struggles to achieve much at all. This explains why the current president actively campaigns for fellow party candidates nationwide: endorsements, rallies, and fundraising help secure legislative allies essential for governing. Since George Washington—the nation’s only founding-era president elected as an independent—no U.S. president has been elected or governed effectively as an independent. Running as an independent means near-certain electoral defeat—and even if somehow elected, governing would be nearly impossible: just confirming cabinet nominees requires Senate approval, and that alone would pose an insurmountable hurdle.

Senate Permitting Vote Unlikely Before Election, Whitehouse Says

1 day ago

Senator Sheldon Whitehouse indicated that a vote on key energy permitting reform is unlikely before the election, potentially delaying benefits for the oil, gas, and renewable energy sectors despite near-term deal prospects.

bloomberg

2026-09-24

Senate Permitting Vote Unlikely Before Election, Whitehouse Says

Senate Permitting Vote Unlikely Before Election, Whitehouse Says

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