The chain reaction has begun: India slaps Trump in the face.

2. The U.S. reduced tariffs on Indian goods from 25% to 18% (and scrapped the additional 25% punitive tariff on Indian purchases of Russian oil); 3. India pledged to buy over $500 billion worth of U.S. energy products, agricultural goods, and other commodities. Interestingly, when Trump announced these core terms, Modi merely expressed delight that the U.S. would lower tariffs—making no mention whatsoever of the other conditions. Sometimes, silence speaks louder than words; sometimes, quietude reveals greater wisdom than argument. Yet now, a new problem has emerged. Under Trump’s terms, India bears multiple obligations—for instance, halting purchases of Russian oil, buying $500 billion in U.S. goods, and accepting an 18% tariff rate. Following a U.S. Supreme Court ruling, Trump’s emergency response was to immediately impose an additional 10% tariff—even after later revising it downward to 15%, that rate remains below 18%. India doesn’t even need to negotiate: its maximum tariff burden is now just 15%. So why would it still accept the original terms—and voluntarily bind itself with extra constraints? Does the U.S. really take India for a fool? Yet outright rejection—and demanding renegotiation—would surely provoke Trump, and India may well lack the nerve to do so. After much deliberation, it opted instead to postpone. According to Indian officials, 'The decision to postpone the visit was made following consultations between officials of both countries,' and 'the meeting will be rescheduled on a date convenient to both sides.' In the chess game of interests, delay itself is a statement; observation itself is a form of strategic maneuvering. But just hours after Trump singled out India as certain to pay tariffs, India postponed its delegation’s visit—what else could this possibly be but slapping Trump in the face? Finally, how should we assess this? Three preliminary observations: First, Trump’s ‘winning’ diplomacy versus Modi’s ‘winning’ diplomacy. When Trump announced he had reached an agreement with Modi, many observers grew skeptical: Would India truly halt its imports of Russian oil? Trump loudly proclaimed the deal worldwide; Modi stubbornly refused to comment—leaving the world utterly uncertain whether Trump had persuaded Modi—or whether Modi had simply hoodwinked Trump. In diplomatic language, the most melodious promises often conceal the deepest reservations. Many media outlets noted that global oil prices barely moved following the announcement—an anomaly. As experts put it, 'This may indicate skepticism in oil markets about the actual significance of the India-U.S. agreement.' Even if a formal agreement were struck, 'India might ignore sanctions and continue buying Russian oil—as it has done for years—using numerous methods to circumvent them…' Now, before India has even taken concrete action, America’s own position has already faltered. Trump’s ‘winning’ diplomacy versus Modi’s ‘winning’ diplomacy—the suspense remains very much alive. Second, poor Japan—truly frustrated. This past weekend, Japan’s mood was stirred to restless agitation. On the international political stage, some countries’ tragedy lies in lacking even the right to voice disappointment aloud. I observed that, shortly after the U.S. Supreme Court ruling, Japan’s Kyodo News Agency cited White House officials as saying the U.S. would cancel its 15% 'reciprocal tariff' on Japan, replacing it with a new uniform global rate of 10%. Japan quietly rejoiced. But just hours later, Trump abruptly announced raising the tariff back to 15%. Japan’s joy proved premature. Yet recall: Japan only secured that 15% tariff by agreeing to numerous extra conditions—including investing $550 billion in the U.S. In Trump’s own words, this effectively meant Japan would hand Trump $550 billion to spend.

Can Trump force India to abandon Russian oil? After Modi capitulates, who’s next?

Summary: Donald Trump claimed that Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi assured him India would halt imports of Russian oil in the short term, responding to U.S. pressure aimed at cutting off Russia’s energy revenues. India relies on Russian oil for 34% of its imports—a low-cost source helping narrow its current-account deficit. In August, the U.S. imposed an additional 25% tariff on Indian imports linked to Russian oil purchases. Though New Delhi has long argued for energy diversification, it recently softened its stance, pledging to halve its Russian oil imports. Meanwhile, the U.S. plans to levy a 500% tariff on Chinese goods and establish a 'Ukraine Victory Fund,' escalating the trade storm. China’s Foreign Ministry condemned Washington’s unilateral bullying and vowed countermeasures. On October 16, UPI reported that former President Donald Trump stated Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi had assured him his country would cease importing Russian oil. Trump claimed India had agreed to stop purchasing Russian oil amid Washington’s efforts to pressure Russia—by severing Kremlin access to vital energy revenue—to end its war in Ukraine. Trump also said he would seek similar commitments from China. On Wednesday, October 15, Trump told reporters he had received a pledge from Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi that India would begin halting purchases of Russian oil 'in the short term.' Notably, India and China are currently Russia’s two largest seaborne crude oil importers. Trump sought to leverage ongoing U.S.-India trade negotiations to pressure India on the Russian oil issue. In August, citing India’s continued purchases of Russian oil, he announced additional trade tariffs on India. Yet Modi has thus far refused to yield on this issue. For months, Indian officials have maintained that purchasing Russian energy is vital to India’s national security. India’s move to halt Russian energy imports would mark a major shift in stance by one of Russia’s largest energy customers—and could significantly undermine Russia’s war effort in Ukraine. I. Why has Russian oil been a flashpoint between the U.S. and India? Citing India’s continued imports of Russian oil, Trump imposed an additional 25% tariff on Indian goods in August—bringing India’s total tariff burden to 50%. Yet he took no comparable action against China, which remains a major importer of Russian oil. According to data released by China’s General Administration of Customs, China imported a record 109 million tons of Russian crude oil last year—accounting for nearly 20% of its total energy imports. By contrast, India imported 88 million tons of Russian oil in 2024—37.8% of its total energy imports of 232.5 million tons. While China imported more Russian oil in absolute volume, its share is roughly half of India’s. Moreover, much of China’s imports arrive via long-term pipeline contracts, whereas India’s entire Russian oil import volume consists of short-term seaborne contracts—making India’s dependence on Russian oil nearly double that of China. Based on this, New Delhi accused Washington of selectively targeting India in its latest round of tariffs. Some observers suggest Trump’s stance partly reflects his frustration with India’s unwillingness to meet specific U.S. demands in current trade talks—and also reflects his grasp of commercial logic: short-term contracts are far easier to alter than long-term ones.

Trump Waives Russia Sanctions, Easing India's Energy Woes and Boosting Trade Deal Chances

Oct 19, 2026

US President Trump waived key Russia-related sanctions, easing India's energy import concerns and potentially facilitating a US-India trade deal. The move avoids steep tariffs on Indian goods while addressing geopolitical tensions over Russian oil purchases.

reuters

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Trump Waives Russia Sanctions, Easing India's Energy Woes and Boosting Trade Deal Chances

Trump Waives Russia Sanctions, Easing India's Energy Woes and Boosting Trade Deal Chances

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