Natural Uranium Price Review and Forecast

1. The uranium market is dominated by long-term bilateral contracts between nuclear power plants and producers; long-term contract prices better reflect the true supply-demand fundamentals of natural uranium. The uranium market is primarily structured around long-term bilateral contracts between nuclear power plants and uranium producers, with the spot market playing a supplementary role. (1) Long-term contract prices account for approximately three-quarters of total transactions: nuclear power plants directly sign 3–15-year supply contracts with uranium mining producers, typically at prices above spot market levels. Under normal circumstances, nuclear power plants have an average refueling cycle of about 18 months; their uranium inventories include working inventories (uranium in the enrichment or fuel fabrication stages) and strategic inventories (forward-looking reserves held to mitigate supply disruption risks). (2) Spot contract prices account for roughly one-quarter of transactions, with delivery periods within one year; these prices are more heavily influenced by traders and financial capital. In 2000, the main market participants—utilities and mining companies—accounted for 95% of spot market activity. By 2005, this share had declined to two-thirds; by 2011, it fell to one-third; and it has since stabilized at 30–40%. The remainder comes from the financial sector—traders and financial institutions entering the market—contributing higher liquidity and volatility to spot pricing. A rebound in long-term contract volumes signals genuine improvement in the fundamental dynamics of the natural uranium market—and substantial further growth potential remains. Following the Fukushima accident, uranium prices remained depressed for an extended period, with virtually no new long-term contracts signed. Utilities met uncovered demand through spot-market purchases, while most natural uranium producers relied on pre-Fukushima long-term contracts to sustain sales. From 2022 to 2024, long-term contract signings rebounded significantly, reaching 52,600 tonnes in 2024 (half purchased by China). The signing of new long-term contracts reflects resurgent long-term demand from nuclear utilities, spurred by rising spot uranium prices—marking a genuine turnaround in the natural uranium market’s fundamentals and injecting real momentum for revival. Moreover, long-term contract volumes remain below pre-2010 levels, indicating considerable room for future growth. 2. Historical Review and Forecast of Natural Uranium Prices—From a Long-Term Perspective, Current Conditions Represent Uranium’s Third Bull Market Since 1968, natural uranium prices have undergone three distinct bull markets. (1) The first bull market spanned January 1973 to May 1978. The OPEC oil embargo exposed vulnerabilities in global energy security, prompting countries to substitute nuclear power for oil-fired generation. Between 1973 and 1978, 441 new nuclear reactors were constructed globally, sharply boosting uranium demand and driving uranium prices up by 629%. The ensuing nuclear construction boom triggered uranium production capacity expansion—but from the 1980s onward, slowing electricity demand growth, stricter safety regulations, and inventory overhang caused uranium prices to decline steadily through the mid-1990s. (2) The second bull market ran from December 2000 to June 2007. Driven by proactive national nuclear development plans and supply disruptions, uranium prices entered an upward trajectory, peaking at $136 per pound in 2007—the all-time high—representing a 1,801% increase during this cycle. In 2008, the subprime mortgage crisis erupted, causing uranium prices to plummet rapidly to $40–$50 per pound. Prices then recovered gradually, reaching $70 per pound by 2010.

Making Uranium Great Again—Morgan Stanley’s Commentary on U.S. Nuclear Power Plans

Trump aims to revive U.S. nuclear power; Wall Street heavyweights are bullish on uranium price trends. On June 3, according to Windchaser Trading Desk, Morgan Stanley stated in its latest research report that strengthened U.S. nuclear power planning reinforces the theme of nuclear renaissance and provides long-term demand support for the uranium market, maintaining its positive outlook for uranium prices in 2025. Morgan Stanley commodity strategists, including Amy Gower, noted that the 400-gigawatt nuclear capacity target underscores a policy pivot by the Trump administration toward supporting nuclear power—a trend that strengthens the long-term demand outlook for uranium. Given the time-intensive nature of nuclear capacity development, the direct impact on uranium demand remains limited in the near term. However, the initiative may reignite investor interest—particularly via uranium ETF demand. Such demand has been largely absent since late 2023; the new policy framework is expected to support spot-market procurement. Notably, according to prior reporting by Windchaser Trading Desk, Goldman Sachs believes the global uranium mining supply system faces severe challenges. On one hand, many existing mines are aging and resources are increasingly depleted; on the other, new project lead times are lengthy. This trend will accelerate beginning in 2025, culminating in a global uranium shortfall of 130 million pounds by 2040. The Grand Blueprint for U.S. Nuclear Expansion According to reports, on May 23, President Trump signed four executive orders aimed at accelerating U.S. nuclear construction. The most prominent among them sets a target of achieving 400 gigawatts of nuclear capacity by 2050—quadrupling the United States’ current operating capacity of 100 gigawatts. The plan also includes a 5-gigawatt power upgrade for existing capacity (equivalent to approximately 900 tonnes of uranium demand—about 1% of projected 2030 demand), initiating construction of 10 new large-scale reactors by 2030, and shortening reactor licensing timelines to 18 months. Morgan Stanley notes that, in global comparative terms, the U.S. 2050 target would make its nuclear reactor construction program 24% larger than China’s current plans. This goal extends the tripling-of-nuclear-capacity target set by over 20 countries at the COP28 summit in 2023. History Versus Reality Morgan Stanley points out that realizing this ambitious target would require the U.S. to initiate construction of 20 average-sized nuclear reactors annually—a formidable challenge.

Nuclear Revival Spurs CME to Move Ahead on Physical Uranium Contracts

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CME Group is finalizing a physical uranium futures contract backed by Solstice Advanced Materials amid surging nuclear demand. Uranium prices have tripled over six years as governments expand atomic power to meet energy needs.

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Nuclear Revival Spurs CME to Move Ahead on Physical Uranium Contracts

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