Special Report on the Fertilizer Industry Chain!

Over the past two weeks, apart from the real estate sector—which has sustained strong performance—the fertilizer industry has been the only other market segment showing consistent strength. The reason is straightforward: geopolitical conflicts have tightened global fertilizer supply, pushing fertilizer prices to record highs. Today, we’ll provide a brief overview of the fertilizer industry. Fertilizers are primarily used in agricultural production and landscape construction. They are chemically manufactured substances containing one or more essential nutrients required for crop growth. There are three main types: nitrogen-based fertilizers, phosphorus-based fertilizers, and potassium-based fertilizers—along with compound fertilizers combining these elements. Put simply, without these fertilizers, crop growth and yields would suffer significantly. Thus, insufficient fertilizer supply affects not only the fertilizer industry itself but also food production—and ultimately has profound global implications. Take potash (potassium fertilizer) as an example. Potash is the most geographically concentrated of the three major fertilizers, with over 80% of global reserves located in just four countries: Canada, Russia, Belarus, and Ukraine. Meanwhile, the largest demand comes from Brazil, China, and India.

Russia Suspends Fertilizer Exports; African Agriculture Under Pressure—Now Is the Optimal Time for Chinese Enterprises to Build Fertilizer Production Capacity in Africa

③ A Competitive Vacuum Has Emerged: With Russia preoccupied domestically and Gulf producers constrained by regional bottlenecks, this represents the best opportunity in the past five years for Chinese enterprises operating in Africa to establish local fertilizer production capacity. When will the Dorogobuzh plant resume full operations? The answer determines whether your next procurement decision should be price-locking or waiting—see the end of this article for an emergency self-checklist for fertilizer operations in Africa. ▌Triple Pressures Converge—How Large Is This Supply Gap? Russia’s export suspension contains a technical detail buried in its official announcement that warrants attention. In February, the Dorogobuzh plant—owned by Acron Group in Smolensk—was struck by Ukrainian drones, resulting in at least seven fatalities and halting production indefinitely. This single facility accounts for 11% of Russia’s national ammonium nitrate output. (Editor’s quiet note: Losing 11% of production capacity overnight—while spring planting must proceed—essentially forced this export ban.) Officially, Russian authorities cite the need to ‘ensure domestic spring sowing requirements.’ Behind this statement lies a confluence of surging export demand and damaged domestic capacity—leaving Russia no choice but to prioritize its own needs first. This is the only logically coherent explanation. Amid these three converging pressures, global average fertilizer prices have already risen 27% since the start of the year, with nitrogen fertilizer prices surging 30–40% (Global Sovereign Advisors, March 15, 2026). Three independent supply constraints have simultaneously activated—a structural tightening that will not automatically dissipate upon the scheduled April 21 export resumption. Having outlined the triple pressures, let’s now explain why Africa is uniquely vulnerable—not because it consumes more fertilizer, but precisely the opposite. ▌Why Africa Represents the World’s Most Fragile Link Sub-Saharan Africa’s per-hectare fertilizer usage stands at only 7% of that in the United States and 5% of China’s. Low usage does not equate to low import dependence. Virtually all fertilizer is imported, while local production capacity is negligible. Following the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war in 2022, the International Fertilizer Association estimated that fertilizer consumption across sub-Saharan Africa (excluding South Africa) declined by up to 25%, reverting to mid-2010s levels. That earlier shock stemmed from a single disruption. This time, two additional complications arise. Morocco and Mozambique are direct export destinations for Russian ammonium nitrate. Morocco serves as a regional hub for agro-input imports across North Africa, while Mozambique—having just entered a major natural gas development cycle—has seen its entire regional distribution network disrupted by this sudden supply cutoff. (Editor’s quiet note: Mozambique had just advanced its natural gas project, only to face fertilizer supply cuts—truly unfortunate timing.) Price transmission in Africa is far more volatile than elsewhere. While global average prices rose 27%, retail prices in Kenya or Nigeria typically surge further due to transport costs, customs clearance fees…

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