Why did Inpex raise its full-year 2026 net profit forecast, and what are the new and previous estimates?

Inpex raised its full-year 2026 net profit forecast to a range of 350 billion yen to 450 billion yen ($2.2 billion–$2.9 billion) from a previous estimate of 330 billion yen, citing higher expected crude oil prices and a weaker yen amid the Middle East crisis. The revised outlook implies an 11% drop to a 14% increase from the previous year, and the company adopted a range-based outlook due to uncertainty over the Middle East conflict.

How has the closure of the Strait of Hormuz affected Inpex’s production forecast and Japan’s energy supply strategy?

Due to lower crude output in Abu Dhabi following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, Inpex cut its annual production forecast to 630,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day on an equity interest basis from 655,000 barrels projected in February. Before the Iran war began in February, Japan relied on the Middle East for 95% of its crude imports, and the effective closure forced Japan to seek alternatives; Inpex responded by prioritising energy supplies to Japanese buyers, shipping condensate from its Ichthys LNG project in Australia to Japan on a priority basis and diverting crude from an Azerbaijani oil field to Japan after the Iran war erupted.

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