What do J.P. Morgan and BNP Paribas now forecast for the ECB's December 2023 monetary policy decision, and how does this differ from their prior expectation?

J.P. Morgan and BNP Paribas now forecast a 25-basis-point interest rate hike by the European Central Bank in December, citing persistent inflation risks and elevated energy prices; both brokerages had previously expected the ECB’s tightening cycle to end without a December rate increase.

According to BNP Paribas, what economic conditions justify the likelihood of 'second-round effects' and support a December rate hike?

BNP Paribas analysts state that 'the persistence of the energy shock and the resilience of the economy make second-round effects more likely to materialise', which strengthens the case for further tightening, including a potential December hike.

J.P. Morgan, BNP Paribas Forecast December ECB Rate Hike as Energy Risks Linger

Sep 3, 2026

J.P. Morgan and BNP Paribas revised forecasts to predict a December ECB rate hike driven by persistent energy price pressures and inflation risks. Elevated oil prices above $95 per barrel continue to influence euro zone borrowing costs and monetary policy expectations.

reuters

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J.P. Morgan, BNP Paribas Forecast December ECB Rate Hike as Energy Risks Linger

J.P. Morgan, BNP Paribas Forecast December ECB Rate Hike as Energy Risks Linger

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