2025 Belt and Road Initiative: Overview of Key Russian Industries, Market Expansion Strategies, and Bank Guarantee Policies

Industry Analysis In light of Russia’s industrial layout, national development plans, and external market conditions, three core infrastructure sectors—oil & gas, power, and transportation—exhibit differentiated development trends. As a critical credit-enhancement instrument for cross-border cooperation, bank guarantees permeate all stages of projects—from tendering and contract execution to construction and post-completion maintenance—posing comprehensive compliance challenges for China-Russia infrastructure collaboration. Each sector, shaped by its unique industrial characteristics, policy constraints, and practical operational scenarios, has thus given rise to industry-specific risks related to project performance and guarantee risk management. I. Oil & Gas Infrastructure Sector Russia possesses exceptional oil and gas resource endowments and relies heavily on this sector as a cornerstone of state fiscal revenue. Following the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Western enterprises have continuously withdrawn from the domestic Russian market, resulting in pronounced technological gaps in high-end exploration and liquefied deep-processing segments. The sector as a whole is under mounting pressure. In the first half of 2025, profits of Russia’s leading oil & gas companies declined sharply: Rosneft’s profits fell over 60% year-on-year; Lukoil’s profits halved; and Gazprom’s profits dropped 54% year-on-year. These declines stem primarily from falling international oil prices, OPEC+ production increases, and the cumulative impact of multilateral Western sanctions—including the EU’s floating price cap mechanism, implemented in 2025, which further compresses Russia’s international pricing power and profitability in oil & gas exports. To bolster export competitiveness, Russia abolished its oil export tariff entirely starting January 2024 and has shifted its industrial development focus decisively toward the Asia-Pacific market, deepening cross-border energy technology cooperation and capacity localization. Regionally, Russia’s oil & gas infrastructure investment is accelerating toward two strategic zones: the Far East and the Arctic—with liquefied natural gas (LNG) emerging as the core investment theme. In March 2024, Russia completed the Far East gas pipeline interconnection project, linking the “Power of Siberia” mainline with the regional “Sakhalin–Khabarovsk–Vladivostok” pipeline network—significantly enhancing eastern Russia’s gas transmission capacity and integration efficiency with Asia-Pacific markets. In the Arctic, the flagship “Arctic LNG 2” project continues steady progress despite Western equipment sanctions and restrictions on core technologies, relying on modular construction and domestically sourced equipment substitution. Under Russia’s national “Energy Strategy until 2035,” the government encourages private capital and foreign investment in Far Eastern and Arctic oil & gas projects through tax incentives, dedicated fiscal subsidies, and preferential land-use policies. China-Russia cooperation across the full oil & gas value chain continues to deepen, spanning upstream exploration and development, midstream storage and transportation infrastructure, downstream refining and petrochemical processing, and low-carbon technology R&D. PetroChina is deeply involved in the development of Russia’s Dukhan oilfield, providing mature drilling technologies and complete equipment packages; China National Chemical Engineering’s Baltic Chemical Complex has entered the second-phase equipment installation stage—upon completion, it will achieve an annual polyethylene output of 3 million tonnes; and the China-Russia joint venture Amur Gas Chemical Plant—planned to produce 1.8 million tonnes of methanol annually—is a benchmark refining & petrochemical project in the Far East. In storage and transportation, the “Power of Siberia” pipeline has achieved a peak gas transmission capacity of 38 billion cubic meters per year. In technology, both sides signed a memorandum of understanding on intelligent oil & gas systems and low-carbon emission reduction technologies, jointly developing specialized solutions—including polar drilling and carbon capture technologies adapted to Arctic operating conditions—effectively offsetting the negative impacts of Western sanctions and reinforcing bilateral energy security.

International Energy Agency (IEA): Global Oil Supply to Become Severely Oversupplied by End of This Decade

Commodity Report (Based on IEA Data) Due to voluntary production cuts, OPEC+’s share of global oil supply declined to 48.5% this year—the lowest level since the alliance’s formation in 2016. In the short term, weak oil deliveries in OECD countries during March led to a slight contraction in global demand. Consequently, the IEA revised down its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2024 from 1.1 million barrels per day (bpd) to 960,000 bpd. For 2025, the IEA adjusted its oil demand growth forecast downward from 1.2 million bpd to 1.0 million bpd, citing sluggish economic growth, rising electric vehicle adoption, and improved fuel efficiency. Global oil demand is projected to average 103.2 million bpd in 2024 and 104.2 million bpd in 2025. On Wednesday, Brent crude traded at approximately USD 82 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) traded near USD 78 per barrel. Earlier this week, both benchmark crude prices rose about 3%, as traders appeared to be buying on dips following a sharp price decline triggered by OPEC+’s announcement of a phased exit from production cuts. Oil prices currently enjoy solid support, with market participants expecting robust summer fuel demand and continued OPEC+ production restraint to cause a notable supply deficit in the third quarter. Nonetheless, bearish sentiment still dominates the market, as the prospect of U.S. interest rates remaining elevated for longer continues to dampen oil demand outlooks. Compared to the IEA’s forecasts, OPEC’s demand projections are significantly higher: OPEC expects global oil demand to grow by 2.2 million bpd in 2024 and 1.8 million bpd in 2025. The IEA raised its overall oil supply forecasts, now projecting global supply to average 102.9 million bpd in 2024 and 104.7 million bpd in 2025—up from prior estimates of 102.7 million bpd and 104.5 million bpd, respectively. The agency stated that non-OPEC+ countries will continue to lead global supply growth, with output expected to increase by 1.4 million bpd in 2024 and 1.5 million bpd in 2025. If voluntary cuts remain in place, OPEC+ output is expected to fall by 740,000 bpd in 2024—but rebound with a 320,000-bpd increase in 2025. OPEC+ previously agreed to extend its 2.2-million-bpd voluntary cut through September 2024 and indicated plans to phase out these cuts gradually between October 2024 and September 2025, subject to market conditions. Meanwhile, the IEA reported that Russia’s crude oil exports rose by 100,000 bpd in May to 7.7 million bpd, while export revenues declined 0.6% month-on-month to USD 16.8 billion. With Russia strengthening compliance with the OPEC+ agreement, its oil output is expected to fall by 260,000 bpd in 2024—to 10.7 million bpd—but stabilize broadly by 2030, supported by the Vostok Oil project in the Arctic. The IEA noted that medium-term global demand forecasts face multiple risk factors, including economic growth expectations, oil price trajectories, and the pace of global electric vehicle adoption. If you want to read the following magazines or more newspapers and magazines, please chat with kingmember_sf （+V）for more information

Russia Starts Exports from Arctic Vostok Oil Project in Boost to Long-Term Production

Sep 24, 2026

Rosneft has commenced commercial oil exports from its Arctic Vostok Oil project via the Bukhta Sever terminal. Initial volumes average 150,000 bpd, with plans to reach 1 million bpd by 2030 despite sanctions.

reuters

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Ukraine Says It Hit Two Major Oil Refineries in Russia Overnight

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Ukraine Escalates Drone Strikes on Russian Energy Infrastructure

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Ukraine Attacks Russian Energy Sites - What Has Been Hit?

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Russian oil firms should process 30% of crude oil at home, Kommersant reports

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Ukraine Resumes Attacks on Oil Refineries Deep Inside Russia