Dow's Q3 2025 Earnings Report (October 27, 2025)

The stock price has been depressed for a full year—falling two tiers. After the Q3 2025 earnings release, it surged 13%. Has there been any fundamental change? ・First, revenue was weak: the Q2 guidance for this quarter was $10.2 billion. ・Second, GAAP EPS turned positive only due to two non-recurring items; operating profit failed to cover interest expenses. ・On the positive side, the loss was narrower than expected—the company’s cost-cutting and capital expenditure reductions have proven effective. Has the chemical industry reached a downward inflection point? ・On the supply side, Dow believes capacity restraint has begun across all regions—including China: “We've got speculation on the closures of about 13 million metric tons from a combination of additional capacity in Asia, Japan and Korea to the tune of about 5 million tons and China from the [anti-evolution] policies to the tune of about 7 million tons.” ・On the demand side, Dow sees overall demand remaining weak—unchanged from last quarter. It hopes interest rate cuts will stimulate construction starts.

Q3 2024 Performance of 21 Chemical Enterprises: Dow, Wacker, Wanhua, Sinopec, CNOOC, etc.

Jinggong Technology: In Q3 2024, it achieved revenue of RMB 219 million, down 27.04% year-on-year; net loss was RMB 25.15 million, widening by 155.73% year-on-year. For the first three quarters of 2024, Jinggong Technology’s total revenue amounted to RMB 1.12 billion, up 5.51% year-on-year; attributable net profit was RMB 73.03 million, down 47.96% year-on-year. Shandong Heda: In Q3 2024, Shandong Heda achieved revenue of RMB 500 million, up 16.78% year-on-year; attributable net profit was RMB 74.12 million, up 2.06% year-on-year; non-GAAP attributable net profit was RMB 63.22 million, down 10.86% year-on-year; basic EPS was RMB 0.22 per share. From January to September 2024, Shandong Heda’s total revenue reached RMB 1.435 billion, up 21.78% year-on-year; attributable net profit was RMB 198 million, down 13.72% year-on-year; non-GAAP attributable net profit was RMB 180 million, down 21.45% year-on-year; basic EPS was RMB 0.50 per share, down 13.43% year-on-year. Shanghai Petrochemical: For the first three quarters of 2024, total revenue was RMB 6.5995 billion, down 5.53% year-on-year. Cost of sales stood at RMB 5.5023 billion, down 6.67% year-on-year; other costs—including expenses—amounted to RMB 1.0813 billion, down 3.37% year-on-year. After deducting cost of sales and various expenses from total operating revenue, attributable net profit was RMB 34.539 million—turning profitable after losses in the prior year. Tinci Materials: For the first three quarters of 2024, total operating revenue was RMB 8.863 billion—RMB 3.261 billion lower than the same period last year, representing a 26.90% year-on-year decline. Attributable net profit was RMB 338 million—RMB 1.413 billion lower than the same period last year, representing an 80.69% year-on-year decline. Tongcheng New Materials: For the first three quarters of 2024, revenue was RMB 2.425 billion, up 10.45% year-on-year; attributable net profit was RMB 439 million, up 25.31% year-on-year. In Q3 alone, operating revenue was RMB 849 million, up 2.72% year-on-year and up 6.89% quarter-on-quarter; attributable net profit was RMB 125 million, down 1.13% year-on-year but down 25.65% quarter-on-quarter. Gross margin for the first three quarters of 2024 was 25.44%, up 1.48 percentage points year-on-year; gross margin for Q3 2024 was 25.31%, up 2.32 percentage points year-on-year. Wanhua Chemical: In Q3 2024, total revenue was RMB 5.0537 billion, up 12.48% year-on-year. Total revenue for the first three quarters was RMB 14.7604 billion, up 11.35% year-on-year. Revenue breakdown included: polyurethane product lines—RMB 5.4245 billion; petrochemical product lines—RMB 6.1978 billion; fine chemicals and new materials product lines—RMB 1.9999 billion. Net profit for Q3 was RMB 291.9 million, down 29.41% year-on-year—primarily driven by year-on-year declines in product prices and year-on-year increases in key raw material costs. Satellite Chemical: In Q3 2024, revenue was RMB 1.287 billion, up 9.89% year-on-year; total revenue for the first three quarters was RMB 3.228 billion.

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