Eli Lilly, $1 Trillion

In Q2 2025, tirzepatide achieved quarterly sales of $8.58 billion—historically surpassing semaglutide’s $8.034 billion—marking a pivotal shift in market leadership. In Q3, Mounjaro’s sales reached $6.52 billion, up 109% year-on-year; its weight-loss version Zepbound generated $3.588 billion, up 185% year-on-year. Combined sales of the two drugs for the first three quarters exceeded $24.837 billion, with full-year revenue projected to surpass $35 billion. Although semaglutide still held a narrow lead in cumulative sales for the first three quarters—approximately $25.462 billion—Novo Nordisk repeatedly lowered its full-year guidance, revising expected growth from 8–14% down to just 8–11%. In contrast, Eli Lilly expressed strong confidence, raising its full-year revenue forecast from $60–62 billion to $63–63.5 billion—well above market expectations. In terms of market share, tirzepatide has already pulled ahead of semaglutide. Data show that as of September 2025, Eli Lilly held 57.9% of the U.S. GLP-1 drug market—16 percentage points higher than Novo Nordisk. FactSet analysts project that Mounjaro and Zepbound will collectively exceed $40 billion in annual sales by 2026, and approach $60 billion by 2030—potentially making tirzepatide the best-selling pharmaceutical in history. 02 After the Trillion-Dollar Milestone Eli Lilly’s trillion-dollar market capitalization rests largely on investor expectations of the vast potential of the weight-loss drug market. However, recent U.S. government interventions targeting drug pricing have injected uncertainty into this high-growth sector. On November 6, 2025, both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly announced agreements with the U.S. government to lower prices for their respective GLP-1 drugs. Novo Nordisk pledged to reduce semaglutide’s pricing starting in 2026 and expand access under Medicare Part D, Medicaid, and for cash-paying patients. Then, on November 17, it further announced that the out-of-pocket price for semaglutide would drop to $349 per month—and that, effective immediately through March 2026, U.S. patients could obtain each dose for a limited-time price of just $199. Eli Lilly announced that, beginning April 1, 2026, Medicare beneficiaries will pay no more than $50 per month for tirzepatide. This intensifying price war has directly impacted market expectations for overall industry scale. Asad Haider, Head of Healthcare Research at Goldman Sachs, recently revised his forecast: GLP-1 injectable weight-loss drugs are now expected to reach approximately $95 billion in annual U.S. sales by 2030—down roughly 26.9% from his prior estimate of $130 billion. He attributes this downward revision to evolving trends in drug pricing, patient treatment duration, and eligible patient populations. While agreeing to price cuts, Eli Lilly is simultaneously pushing for accelerated FDA approval of its oral tirzepatide (orforglipron). Notably, in its official statement, Eli Lilly explicitly included both the already-approved Zepbound and the yet-to-be-approved oral formulation within the scope of its pricing commitment—a strategic move intended to clarify its product portfolio strategy and strongly signal its expectation for orforglipron’s swift regulatory approval and commercial launch.

A New Development from a Pharma Giant!

Hello everyone, I’m Hai Rongjun. This morning, Novo Nordisk—the U.S.-listed pharma giant with a $1 trillion market cap—unveiled a new narrative: clinical data show its weight-loss drug reduces cardiovascular disease risk by 20% versus placebo. The announcement instantly shattered the valuation ceiling for biotech firms. Following the news, Novo Nordisk’s and Eli Lilly’s market caps rose to $423.6 billion and $495.1 billion respectively—combined gains totaling $126.2 billion (roughly ¥880 billion), equivalent to 3.5 times the market cap of Hengrui Medicine. Weight-loss drugs occupy a unique space—partly consumer goods. Their customer base is exceptionally broad, unlike oncology or diabetes drugs, which serve relatively narrow, defined patient populations. Moreover, supply remains constrained due to the complexity and high barriers of clinical development—not just anyone can enter this space. As a quasi-consumer product, weight-loss drugs are generally excluded from insurance reimbursement. But Novo Nordisk reframed the story: these drugs don’t just help people lose weight—they treat disease, specifically cutting cardiovascular risk by 20%. The market’s logic is clear: this new evidence may accelerate inclusion of weight-loss indications into U.S. Medicare reimbursement lists—and thereby dramatically boost adoption. Novo Nordisk even prepared a presentation illustrating how obesity elevates risks for numerous chronic conditions: diabetes (+243%), coronary heart disease (+69%), hypertension (+113%), and dyslipidemia (+74%). It noted that the U.S. spends over $1.37 trillion annually on obesity-related costs—and that obese individuals’ lifetime healthcare expenses are 2.7 times those of healthy individuals. The implicit message? “Medicare, please step up and fund this.” And Wall Street bought the argument. Nasdaq has never been sweeter: on one side, AI—the true dragon—lifting every stock it touches; on the other, the weight-loss drug sector—not only serving cosmetic goals but delivering real therapeutic value. A quick tally of major U.S. pharma companies’ market caps (in RMB): Eli Lilly: ¥3.5 trillion Novo Nordisk: ¥3 trillion AbbVie: ¥1.9 trillion Novartis: ¥1.5 trillion Sanofi: ¥1 trillion Merck & Co.: ¥1.9 trillion AstraZeneca: ¥1.5 trillion Bristol Myers Squibb: ¥0.9 trillion Pfizer: ¥1.5 trillion Roche: ¥1.7 trillion The pessimistic view: A stark contrast with China’s A-share pharmaceutical stocks—buffeted by multiple headwinds—with no one to appeal to. The optimistic view: Valuation ceilings have reopened. China’s largest innovative drug company, Hengrui Medicine, currently stands at ¥256.5 billion; BeiGene follows at ¥165.6 billion. Surely, China can produce a ¥1 trillion-cap pharma company. The surge in U.S. pharma stocks directly stimulated A-share markets today—pharmaceuticals led all sectors, with weight-loss drug-related stocks and CDMO/CXO firms posting the strongest gains. CanSino Biologics surged 20%—a massive single-day jump.

Advil-Maker Haleon Boosts US Sales by Targeting Consumers on Weight-Loss Drugs

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Haleon boosted US sales by partnering with retailers like CVS to stock items addressing GLP-1 weight-loss drug side effects. The strategy yielded a 24% sales lift per store in Q1 amid rising demand for managing nausea and digestive issues.

reuters

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Haleon Secures Improved Shelf Space at Walmart and Target to Boost Market Share

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Advil-Maker Haleon Boosts US Sales by Targeting Consumers on Weight-Loss Drugs

Advil-Maker Haleon Boosts US Sales by Targeting Consumers on Weight-Loss Drugs

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