Trump says he is 'very seriously considering a diesel export ban'; Goldman Sachs analyzes the 'five impacts' of such a ban.

【Answer 1】 As U.S. diesel prices hit an all-time high, Trump personally confirmed he is seriously considering an export ban—and Goldman Sachs promptly modeled the transmission pathways should such a ban take effect. On Sunday, September 27, while attending the Presidents Cup golf tournament near Chicago, U.S. President Trump responded to ongoing speculation about a potential diesel export ban, stating he is 'very seriously' considering prohibiting U.S. diesel exports. He told reporters: 'This sometimes causes a slight increase in gasoline prices for cars, so we are very seriously looking into this—we may do it.' According to Bloomberg, over the past week, National Economic Council Director Hassett, Treasury Secretary Bessent, and U.S. Trade Representative Greer have been analyzing the potential short-term impacts of a diesel export ban—underscoring the seriousness with which the administration is treating this option. Goldman Sachs’ research report characterizes this as a scenario that is 'very possible—but not our base case.' The firm models that, in the short term, the ban would suppress U.S. diesel prices (by roughly $0.25 per gallon weekly), but if sustained for 9–10 weeks until storage tanks fill up, it would instead push gasoline prices upward (by roughly $0.30 per gallon weekly) while also lifting diesel prices in Europe. Why is this being discussed now? The potential ban is driven by multiple factors: One, record-high prices: The U.S. retail diesel average has surged to $6.50 per gallon—the highest on record. Disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz have disturbed global fuel flows, while Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries have further tightened supply. Against this backdrop, the U.S. has become the world’s 'last supplier' of diesel. Two, surging exports: According to Goldman Sachs’ report, U.S. net diesel exports have climbed from ~1.1 million barrels per day in 2025 to ~1.6 million barrels per day in recent months—with last month’s weekly export volume briefly nearing a record-high ~2 million barrels per day. Record-high global diesel refining margins have incentivized refiners to keep expanding exports. Three, pressure from agricultural-state lawmakers: Diesel powers farm machinery, freight trains, trucks, and delivery vehicles. Lawmakers from several agricultural states have urged Trump to restrict diesel exports during the peak harvest season. Goldman Sachs modeling: The ban is 'very possible'—and could begin in October In its September 26 report titled 'Modeling Potential U.S. Diesel Export Restrictions,' Goldman Sachs analysts Daan Struyven and others conducted a quantitative analysis of a hypothetical scenario: The ban would begin in early October 2026 and last at least through December (i.e., the 90-day ban widely discussed in media reports). Analysts note this is a scenario that is 'very possible—but not our base case.' Impact One: Short-term decline in U.S. diesel prices Goldman Sachs believes U.S. diesel prices will face mild downward pressure in the initial phase of the ban. Specific estimate: With storage tanks still having spare capacity, each additional week of the ban would reduce the U.S. retail diesel average by approximately $0.25 per gallon—nearly 4% of the current $6.50-per-gallon level. The logic chain: export disruption → domestic inventory buildup → wholesale price pressure → retail price decline. Impact Two: The longer the ban lasts, the more expensive gasoline becomes This is the most noteworthy counterintuitive effect highlighted in the firm’s analysis. Diesel, gasoline, and jet fuel are highly interlinked in the refining process, with limited flexibility to shift output ratios.

Trump’s aggression toward Iran pushes up U.S. oil prices.

【Answer 2】 According to the latest data from AAA, the national average stands at $6.06 per gallon—up 21 cents just over the past week. Last Friday, prices broke above the previous record of $5.82 per gallon, set in June 2022 following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Tracking U.S. regular gasoline and diesel prices The national average for regular gasoline is $4.29 per gallon—higher than $3.19 per gallon a year ago. Diesel averages $6.06 per gallon—up from $3.71 per gallon a year ago. Note: Data was last updated at 5:00 a.m. Eastern Time on September 11, 2026. There are two main reasons: First, as the U.S.–Iran war drags on, crude oil futures have surged back above $100 per barrel. Second, there are simply not enough operating refineries to process crude oil into fuel. Refineries across the Middle East and Russia have been damaged by war. Russia—a major diesel supplier—has restricted exports to cope with domestic fuel shortages. Similarly, East Asia has imposed export restrictions to avoid its own shortages. 'Fuel refiners are already maximizing diesel production. We simply cannot squeeze any more diesel out of the entire system,' said Andy Lipow, President of Lipow Oil Associates. When fuel prices rise, gasoline garners the most attention—even though only about 3% of passenger vehicles on U.S. roads run on diesel. Yet diesel powers nearly everything else: trucks, tractors, freight trains, ships, and construction vehicles. All heavy-duty trucks and freight trains run on diesel—and they transport virtually all goods. Major trucking companies and freight railroads pass on increased fuel costs to retailers and manufacturers via fuel surcharges. These businesses will almost certainly raise prices to offset those costs. On the West Coast, California’s diesel average stands at $7.98 per gallon. The nation’s largest ports—Los Angeles and Long Beach—are about to enter the holiday shopping season, facing a surge in container volumes. This year’s transportation costs to retailers will be higher—and those costs will inevitably be passed on to shoppers. Patrick DeHaan, Head of Petroleum Analysis at GasBuddy, stated that California diesel prices could 'break through' $8.00 per gallon. Amid soaring fuel prices, the fall harvest season is just beginning. Diesel is the critical fuel for agricultural equipment—and rising diesel costs could drive up food prices. Goldman Sachs warned clients on Monday that global food prices face significant upside risk. The Wall Street bank attributes this to soaring diesel and fertilizer costs stemming from the Strait of Hormuz crisis, Black Sea tensions threatening global grain trade, and El Niño–driven droughts and extreme heat risks. However, China’s grain supply remains secure—thanks to the Party’s wise decision to ensure national food self-sufficiency.

US Fuel Sellers Warn of Price Hikes as Regulator Weighs Pipeline Fee Shift

19 hours ago

US fuel retailers warn consumers face higher prices if FERC approves a plan allowing pipeline operators to negotiate fees freely. Industry groups argue this shift would concentrate pricing power among pipeline companies despite current inflation-based rate caps.

bloomberg

2026-10-21

US Fuel Sellers Warn of Price Hikes as Regulator Weighs Pipeline Fee Shift

US Fuel Sellers Warn of Price Hikes as Regulator Weighs Pipeline Fee Shift

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