This week, attention turns to Europe.

The密集 release period of major U.S. economic data this month has now concluded; this week’s focus shifts to Europe. First up is the European Central Bank’s (ECB) monetary policy meeting on Thursday. During China’s National Day holiday period, ECB President Christine Lagarde and other officials signaled that a third interest-rate cut at the October meeting remains possible. Markets have readily embraced this view: current pricing fully reflects two 25-basis-point cuts for the eurozone by year-end—broadly in line with market expectations for the U.S. Federal Reserve. A 25-basis-point cut in October would be a reasonably prudent decision for the eurozone: On one hand, eurozone PMIs plunged into dual weakness—both manufacturing and services—after the conclusion of the August Olympics; meanwhile, the CPI monthly rate turned negative in September, accelerating its downward trend. On the other hand, the Fed’s 50-basis-point cut in September has further widened the scope for rate cuts among other G10 nations. So far, the eurozone’s pace of easing matches that of the U.S.—a positive development for the euro. However, since a 25-basis-point October cut is already fully priced in, the more critical focus of this meeting may lie in updated economic forecasts and forward guidance on the future path of rates. If the ECB’s tone remains dovish, it could continue to dampen the euro’s rebound momentum. Having discussed the euro, let’s turn to the pound sterling. Following the Labour Party’s landslide victory, the UK’s fundamental economic recovery has remained robust—a point we’ve highlighted repeatedly in our analyses, including in the article “The Pound Is Worth the Wait.” Moreover, both the UK and the U.S. currently hold the highest policy interest rates among G10 countries; the absence of a UK–U.S. interest-rate differential is itself supportive for the pound. After two consecutive months of rate cuts in August and September, the UK’s unemployment rate and CPI data for September—due for release this week—will likely reveal how effective those cuts have been. Should CPI remain stable and unemployment avoid further increases, the pound may continue to draw support from solid fundamentals.

Serbia Top Headlines (Weekend Edition)

26–27 September 2026 (Central European Summer Time) The following text and images are sourced from authoritative Serbian media outlets: the Government of Serbia website (srbija.gov.rs), the Presidential website (vucic.rs), Tanjug News Agency, Beta News Agency, RTS National Television, Politika newspaper, Blic newspaper, and others. 1. President Aleksandar Vučić held a telephone conversation with Russian President Vladimir Putin on 26 September, informing him of his intention to resign from the presidency on 27 September. Vučić stated he hopes Serbia’s future president “will responsibly manage our foreign policy and maintain balance among all factors on the international stage.” The two leaders also exchanged views on the natural gas supply agreement—set to expire on 30 September—and on issues concerning Serbia’s state-owned oil company, Naftna Industrija Srbije (NIS). Vučić expressed confidence that the agreement would be renewed starting next Monday, enabling Serbian citizens to continue purchasing natural gas at the preferential price of €318 per thousand cubic meters—far below the current market price of €868. | Source: Tanjug 2. On the evening of 27 September, Vučić formally submitted his resignation at the Presidential Palace in Belgrade, stepping down as President of Serbia. Under the Constitution, National Assembly Speaker Ivana Dulić Marković will assume the duties of Acting President and must organize a new presidential election within three months. Vučić will run as the candidate of the ruling Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) in the early parliamentary elections scheduled for 25 October, seeking the office of Prime Minister. This personnel reshuffle is set to reshape Serbia’s domestic political landscape. | Source: vucic.rs 3. The National Bank of Serbia (NBS) released its latest macroeconomic monitoring report, showing annual inflation declined to 3.7% in August. ** On 26 September, the NBS published its most recent macroeconomic monitoring report, confirming the continued downward trend in inflation—the annual rate fell to 3.7% in August. The central bank announced it would maintain its current benchmark interest rate unchanged, continuing efforts to stabilize prices while encouraging expanded investment by manufacturing and export-oriented enterprises. Stable inflation helps lower corporate financing costs and supports the achievement of Serbia’s full-year GDP growth target. | Source: RTS 4. Vučić attended the Chinese Embassy’s National Day reception, reaffirming that China–Serbia friendship remains unaffected by changes in official positions. ** On 27 September—the final day of his presidential term—Vučić attended the National Day reception hosted by the Chinese Embassy in Serbia. He emphasized that the ironclad friendship between China and Serbia transcends individual appointments, and the two countries’ community with a shared future remains firmly anchored. | Source: Politika 5. On 26 September, severe convective weather—including hailstorms and heavy rain—struck multiple regions across Serbia, damaging crops, vehicles, and some infrastructure. Similar extreme weather also affected parts of neighboring Croatia. Meteorological authorities had issued prior warnings about the severe convective activity, urging farmers and residents to take precautions against secondary disasters. Weather conditions are forecast to gradually improve starting this weekend. Official post-disaster assessments to determine the full scale of losses are still underway. | Source: Blic et al.

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Europe Top Stories: Weekly Summary

Europe Top Stories: Weekly Summary

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