This round of oil price increase discussion

From a professional perspective, the rapid rise in international oil prices this round is fundamentally driven by heightened expectations of supply-side disruptions, leading to a sharp increase in risk premium. Oil prices breaking above $105 per barrel are primarily propelled by two factors. First, geopolitical risks in the Middle East have intensified: the Strait of Hormuz—a critical global energy shipping route—has raised market concerns over potential transport disruptions and consequent crude supply reductions. Shipping data show a recent decline in the number of tankers passing through the region, indicating that market concerns over supply-chain security are not purely emotional but grounded in tangible reality. Second, offshore oil production facilities in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico have been temporarily shut down due to hurricane impacts, further strengthening short-term expectations of supply contraction. However, the swift pullback after the price surge reflects that market trading involves not only fundamentals but also substantial sentiment-driven factors. Once the U.S. signaled a pause in military escalation, extreme market expectations of supply interruption eased, causing part of the embedded risk premium to dissipate rapidly. Put simply, markets had previously priced in worst-case scenarios—effectively adding a ‘war insurance’ premium to oil prices—and this portion naturally unwound once risk perceptions softened. From a trading standpoint, assessing commodity price trends requires more than headline news; it demands attention to real data. What truly shapes oil’s long-term trajectory is actual supply change—such as daily vessel transit volumes through the Strait of Hormuz, recovery speed of affected oilfields, and shifts in global crude inventories. In contrast, military rhetoric, political statements, and market speculation about extreme outcomes mainly drive short-term sentiment volatility. This is a classic case of “expectation-driven trading” in commodity markets. Short-term prices reflect investors’ forward-looking expectations of future supply-demand shifts—not current, realized supply-demand gaps. This round of oil price increase can thus be understood as the combined result of “genuine supply disruption + sentiment-driven panic premium.” Once sentiment cools, the artificially inflated component is rapidly squeezed out—but the underlying supply pressure does not vanish instantly just because of a conciliatory statement.

Oil price adjustment: Attention—expected increase of 140 RMB/ton; oil prices surging!

Today marks the fourth working day of the new oil price adjustment cycle. Current projections indicate an upward adjustment of 140 RMB per ton, equivalent to a 0.11–0.13 RMB per liter increase for gasoline. Compared to yesterday’s forecast, the expected increase has risen by 40 RMB per ton—surpassing the threshold for an upward adjustment, confirming that oil prices are surging. Attention: International oil prices remain volatile at elevated levels. Attention: Yesterday, tensions between the U.S. and Iran escalated again: Iran launched retaliatory strikes against Jordan, Bahrain, and Kuwait—countries hosting U.S. military forces—causing a marked decline in shipping volume through the Strait of Hormuz and further supporting oil prices via sustained geopolitical risk premium. Here’s a summary of yesterday’s crude market performance: WTI crude rose 0.90%, closing at $91.01 per barrel; Brent crude rose 1.00%, closing at $95.63 per barrel. Today, international oil prices continue trading at high levels: as of this report, WTI is hovering near $91 per barrel, while Brent remains above $95 per barrel. On the Middle East front, U.S. President Trump stated he is “ready to strike Iran again at any time,” adding that the next round of strikes would “not last long.” Iran, citing U.S. violations of prior agreements, has refused to return to the June Memorandum of Understanding and insists the Strait of Hormuz falls under Iranian control—warning it will impose punitive measures on vessels violating its regulations. On the data front, U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) figures show that U.S. crude oil inventories fell by 4.45 million barrels for the week ending August 28—far exceeding the market expectation of a 1.1-million-barrel decline—providing strong support to oil prices. Additionally, OPEC+ may maintain its October production policy unchanged at Sunday’s meeting; Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak also noted ongoing market shortages, reinforcing expectations of continued supply tightening. According to a research note from Mark Schaefer, Director at U.S. brokerage Liquidity Energy (cited by Reuters), this new round of strikes signifies a significant escalation between the U.S. and Iran after roughly one month of relative calm. The oil market’s key concern now is whether this flare-up will further impair actual crude oil flows across the region. Overall, international oil prices still hold upside potential. Short-term direction hinges on the evolution of U.S.–Iran tensions and the outcome of this weekend’s OPEC+ meeting. Close monitoring of Strait of Hormuz transit dynamics is strongly advised. How much will this round of domestic fuel prices rise? Let’s keep watching! Next domestic oil price adjustment timing: 24:00 on September 11. Region 92# Gasoline 95# Gasoline 98# Gasoline 0# Diesel

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Occidental Petroleum Reports 32.6% Surge in Realized Oil Prices Amid Supply Concerns

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