Semiconductor Materials: A Twelve-Dimensional Analysis — Who Is Choking Whom?

Introduction: An Era of Mutually Assured Vulnerability On April 22, 2026, a committee of the U.S. House of Representatives passed the Multilateral Advanced Technology Control for Hardware Act (MATCH Act), dubbed by industry insiders as 'the strictest-ever chip export control against China.' Three days later, China’s spokesperson responded at a routine press briefing: 'Pursuant to the consensus reached during the Kuala Lumpur Sino-U.S. economic and trade consultations, the relevant export control measures announced on October 9, 2025, will be suspended until November 10, 2026.' The wording was measured and diplomatic—but the subtext was unmistakable: suspension, not cancellation—the rare-earth 'knife' remains suspended overhead. In the same month, the Netherlands added DUV lithography machines for mature 28-nm and 45-nm processes to its export ban list. Japan, having placed high-end photoresists under export controls since November 2025, slashed export quotas by nearly 30%; in the first two months of 2026, China’s imports of high-end photoresists stood at zero. One side is choking your neck; the other side is gripping your lifeline—semiconductor materials competition has entered an unprecedented era of 'mutually assured vulnerability.' This article systematically dissects fourteen critical domains within semiconductor materials—from photoresists to rare earths—annotating, for each, the global supply landscape, domestic production status, and severity of 'neck-pinching' risks. Core conclusion upfront: Areas where China is constrained include manufacturing-end materials such as photoresists, ultra-high-purity quartz sand, and 12-inch silicon wafers; areas where China holds leverage include strategic mineral resources such as rare earths, gallium, and germanium; and silicon carbide (SiC) is transitioning from being 'constrained' to 'running neck-and-neck.' Additionally, indium phosphide (InP) substrates, tantalum capacitors and MLCCs (multilayer ceramic capacitors)—passive components—and high-end copper foils and electronic fabrics—foundational PCB materials—are currently overlooked yet critically vulnerable chokepoints. I. Global Landscape: Japan Dominates Half the Market Market Structure: A $20.5 Billion Market, with Japan Capturing 52% Share To grasp the competitive dynamics of semiconductor materials, one must first confront a stark reality: half the global semiconductor materials market lies firmly in Japanese hands. According to data from Zhongshang Industry Research Institute, mainland China’s semiconductor materials market size reached $20.5 billion in 2024—a 13.89% year-on-year increase—ranking first globally and accounting for 28.40% of the worldwide total. By 2026, this figure is projected to reach $35.3 billion. China is the world’s largest buyer—but not its strongest player. Globally, Japanese firms command 52% of the semiconductor materials market share. More critically, among the 19 core materials required for chip manufacturing, Japanese companies hold the top global market share in 14—including silicon wafers, photoresists, and CMP (chemical-mechanical planarization) polishing materials. The United States leads in R&D for high-end semiconductor materials; South Korea excels in memory-chip-specific materials; while China—despite being the largest consumer market—still suffers severely low self-sufficiency rates in high-end materials. Domestic Production Status: Systemic Shortcomings, Not Isolated Bottlenecks This reveals a harsh truth: China faces systemic weaknesses—not isolated bottlenecks—in semiconductor materials. Multiple links across the entire value chain remain simultaneously dependent on foreign suppliers. From photoresists to ultra-high-purity quartz sand, from 12-inch silicon wafers to CMP polishing pads, domestic localization rates generally range between 10% and 40%, with technical gaps between Chinese and Japanese/American products often spanning five to ten years or more.

Semiconductor Materials Surge: Why Target Materials and Electronic Specialty Gases?

Many people know the Strait of Hormuz is important—but how important, exactly, may not be fully appreciated. The Strait of Hormuz lies between Oman and Iran, connecting the Persian Gulf and the Arabian Sea. At its narrowest point, it spans only 33 kilometers—roughly the diameter of Beijing’s Fifth Ring Road. Yet through this slender waterway, approximately 17 million barrels of crude oil pass daily. To put that in perspective: over 20% of global seaborne oil trade—and more than 15% of total global oil consumption—flows here. In other words, one out of every six barrels of oil consumed worldwide passes through this strait. Should the Strait of Hormuz close, the impact would extend far beyond oil prices. Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, Iraq, and Qatar—all rely almost exclusively on this strait for petroleum exports. If shipments cannot exit, global oil supply would instantly shrink by over 15%. According to basic economics principles of supply and demand, a 15% supply reduction would drive prices up by at least 100%. That’s why nonferrous metals stocks surged today. You might ask: What does rising oil prices have to do with nonferrous metals? Because oil is the lifeblood of industry: higher oil prices → higher transportation costs → higher production costs → higher commodity prices. That’s the transmission chain. And this isn’t even the most alarming part. Today, the Jordanian military announced it had intercepted 20 missiles launched from Iran. Meanwhile, Trump stated he would launch a 'very severe' strike against Iran—but also affirmed his continued desire to reach a negotiated agreement. This 'fight-while-talk' posture signals that the conflict will not end anytime soon. What many commentators omit is this historical fact: the Strait of Hormuz’s most severe closure occurred during the 1980–1988 'Tanker War,' when oil prices nearly tripled—triggering a global economic recession. Though the current situation falls far short of that scale, markets fear not what has already happened—but rather, the unknown: 'What else might happen?' II. Semiconductor Materials Surge: Why Target Materials and Electronic Specialty Gases? Returning to China’s A-share market: Today, the semiconductor materials sector surged strongly against the broader market trend. Target materials, electronic specialty gases, and photoresists all rallied sharply—with multiple related stocks hitting daily trading limits and maintaining a board-lock rate above 70%. Intriguingly, while major indices declined, semiconductor materials rose—indicating large institutional capital is rotating out of AI and film & television sectors into semiconductor materials. Why semiconductor materials? Knowledge Point 2: Semiconductor Target Materials—The 'Invisible Champion' of Chip Manufacturing You’ve likely heard the term 'semiconductor' frequently—but rarely 'target material.' Target material—more precisely, 'sputtering target material'—is a critical raw material used in chip fabrication. Simply put, chips contain dozens—or even hundreds—of thin-film layers; these films are deposited layer-by-layer using a process called 'sputtering.' The target material is the 'target' bombarded during sputtering. Sounds abstract? Consider this analogy: Imagine painting a wall—the wall is the silicon wafer, the paint is the metallic thin film, the paintbrush is the physical vapor deposition (PVD) equipment, and the 'paint' loaded onto the brush is the target material. The global target materials market is dominated by an oligopoly: Japan’s JX Metals, Tosoh, Sumitomo Chemical, and Mitsui collectively account for over 60% of global market share. Although China is catching up, the domestic self-sufficiency rate for high-end target materials remains below 20%.

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