NVO Research | Novo Nordisk vs. Eli Lilly: The Dual Oligopoly’s Battle for the 'Taxation Rights' over the Global Healthcare System

Let’s put this number in context: Pfizer trades at 14x, and Merck at 13x. The market is now pricing Novo Nordisk—once a high-growth star—as a 'zero-growth traditional pharmaceutical company.' This represents an extreme valuation misalignment. Base Model Data (Q4 2025): ・P/E: 13.59x. ・EPS: $3.63. Profitability remains robust—not negative. This means the company is still generating profits; investors simply believe it won’t grow its earnings going forward. ・Vs. Eli Lilly: As analyzed earlier, Lilly trades at 55x P/E. These two were once co-dominant oligopolists—but their valuations now differ by 4x. This signals the market’s conviction that 'Lilly won, Novo Nordisk lost.' Bayesian Probability Projection (Next 1–3 Years): Scenario A: Comeback (Bull Case) — Probability 20% ・Assumption: Amycretin (oral weight-loss drug) delivers stunning Phase I data, outperforming Zepbound on weight loss. Market sentiment reverses. ・Valuation logic: Re-rating to growth-stock multiple of 30x P/E. ・Projected share price: $120+ (more than doubling). Scenario B: Oligopoly Restoration (Base Case) — Probability 40% ・Assumption: Market overreacted. Though Lilly holds an edge, the obesity market is vast (hundreds of millions of patients), easily accommodating two giants. CagriSema (Novo Nordisk’s next-generation combination therapy) shows strong clinical data. ・Valuation logic: Valuation recovery to a premium pharmaceutical industry average of 20x P/E. ・Projected share price: $4.00 EPS × 20 = $80 (a 62% upside). Scenario C: Nokia Moment (Bear Case) — Probability 40% ・Assumption: Lilly’s next-generation drug Retatrutide launches with overwhelming superiority over Wegovy. Oral-weight-loss market captured by Pfizer or Roche. Novo Nordisk relegated to a low-growth insulin-only business. ・Valuation logic: Sustained 'utility-like' P/E of 12x–13x. ・Projected share price: $3.80 EPS × 12 = $45.60 (continued gradual decline). Weighted Expected Value: ($45.60 × 0.4) + ($80 × 0.4) + ($120 × 0.2) = $74.20 Margin of Safety: Current share price ($49.25) is far below the expected value ($74.20). Conclusion: Offers a substantial margin of safety (~50%). This appears to be a classic 'contrarian investment' opportunity. Part III: Simulated Expert Interview & Falsification (Scuttlebutt & Disconfirmation) Simulated Expert Perspectives (Scuttlebutt): ・Pharmaceutical Sales Representative: 'Doctors do prefer prescribing Zepbound—it’s slightly more effective. But Wegovy’s brand recognition is so strong that many patients request it by name. Right now, the bottleneck isn’t demand—it’s Novo Nordisk’s supply capacity.' — Demand remains intact; supply is the constraint. ・Hedge Fund Manager: 'We’re long Lilly and short Novo Nordisk—a classic “pairs trade.” We believe the technological edge lies with Lilly. But at 13x P/E, we’re starting to consider covering our short position—it’s just too cheap.'

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RENDER has delivered an extraordinary historical performance—surging from $0.47 to $13.64, an astonishing 2,791% gain. This feat underscores its growth potential and sends a powerful bullish signal, fueling market expectations for new all-time highs. Currently, RENDER is building momentum ahead of its next breakout. Its price sits slightly above its 100-day moving average and is approaching a key resistance level at $6.02. A successful breakout above this threshold could trigger a short-term rally of 20%–30%. Riding this wave, achieving a 250% gain by year-end is not out of reach. Render Token is the core utility token of Render Network—a decentralized platform leveraging GPU-powered rendering to help creators reduce costs. The network efficiently utilizes underutilized GPU resources from node operators to deliver high-performance solutions for animation and visual effects production. In return, node operators receive RENDER tokens as rewards—creating a self-sustaining ecosystem. As demand for rendering resources continues to surge, RENDER offers a novel, real-world solution. With its distinctive use case and rapid development pace, Render Token has the potential to emerge as a leader among altcoins—especially amid the prevailing bullish trend. ONDO Ondo Finance’s native token, ONDO, has recently experienced notable market volatility, driven upward by positive catalysts. This month, integration with PayPal’s stablecoin PYUSD propelled ONDO’s price up by 35%. Over the past week, it rose a further 9%, reaching $1.05. Cumulatively, ONDO gained 13% last week—indicating sustained investor interest. On November 15, Ondo Finance announced a strategic partnership with PayPal’s PYUSD—a major milestone. This collaboration enables users to instantly convert between PYUSD and Ondo’s short-term U.S. Treasury product (OUSG). This initiative does more than expand stablecoin utility—it marks a significant step toward integrating DeFi with traditional financial systems. Ondo Finance plays a pivotal role in harmonizing these two domains. Looking ahead, ONDO’s market outlook is widely viewed as highly optimistic.

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