How has the U.S. EIA revised its estimate of Middle East oil supply disruptions due to the Iran war, and what is the new projected peak production loss?

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) revised its forecast to reflect a much larger and longer-lasting hit to global oil supplies from the Iran war, moving its assumption of the Strait of Hormuz closure from ending in April to lasting through the end of May. It now estimates that 10.5 million barrels per day (bpd) of oil output was shut in across the Middle East in April, rising to a peak of 10.8 million bpd this month — up from its earlier forecast of a peak loss of 9.1 million bpd in April — citing Iran’s forced output cuts due to the U.S. blockade of its exports through the Strait of Hormuz and regional storage tanks reaching maximum capacity.

What are the EIA’s updated forecasts for global oil inventory draws and Brent crude prices in 2024, and how does a further delay in reopening the Strait of Hormuz affect those projections?

The EIA now forecasts global oil inventories will fall by 2.6 million bpd this year — sharply up from its prior estimate of a 300,000 bpd draw — reflecting much bigger draws due to prolonged supply disruptions. It projects Brent crude oil prices will average around $106 per barrel in May and June, then decline to about $89 per barrel in the fourth quarter as Middle East production recovers. The agency also warned that if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed through June — one month longer than its current assumption — oil prices would be approximately $20 per barrel higher over the near term compared to current forecasts.

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