If the Strait of Hormuz is blocked, Japan becomes the biggest 'sucker'!

LNG inventories are running critically low, straining both residential and power-generation gas supplies and bringing power rationing risks closer. Although Japan maintains 254 days’ worth of combined national and private petroleum reserves, these reserves ensure only supply continuity—not price stability or economic protection—leaving Japan no choice but to absorb soaring inflation. Medium-term (over three months): Manufacturing hemorrhages; pillars collapse Japan’s economy rests on automotive, electronics, chemical, and shipping industries—all voracious oil consumers. Its refineries are highly optimized for high-sulfur crude from the Middle East; switching crude types is impossible in the short term, leaving supply gaps unfillable. Major corporations like Toyota and Honda have cut production by over 15%; semiconductor and chemical feedstock supplies have fractured; export supply chains have ground to a halt. Diesel costs for agriculture and fisheries have surged, pushing up food prices and destabilizing supply—triggering public panic-buying. Long-term (prolonged blockade): Sharp GDP contraction and economic recession Authoritative Japanese institutions estimate that, under an extreme scenario, GDP would shrink by approximately 3%—equivalent to a medium-scale economic crisis. For every $10-per-barrel increase in oil prices, Japan’s crude import costs rise by ¥57 billion RMB—a truly massive outflow. Currently, the Japanese government is intensively gathering intelligence on the Strait of Hormuz to safeguard stable supplies of crude oil and natural gas. Japan’s three largest shipping companies—Nippon Yusen (NYK), Mitsui O.S.K. Lines (MOL), and Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha (K Line)—have immediately suspended all transits through the Strait of Hormuz. A NYK spokesperson stated that its vessels have been instructed to avoid waters near the Strait. MOL Ocean Development Co., Ltd. has directed ships to remain on standby in safe waters, while K Line confirmed it has ordered all vessels operating in the Persian Gulf region to stand by. JERA—the largest LNG buyer in Japan—warned in its latest statement: “Should the Middle East situation escalate or persist long-term, factors such as tanker navigation restrictions could affect Japan’s gas supply.” Of course, the global economy will also feel the chokehold of the Strait of Hormuz—it is the world’s energy artery, only 33 kilometers wide at its narrowest point, strategically easy to defend yet hard to breach. Yet this slender waterway carries 20% of the world’s oil shipments, 30% of seaborne oil—some 20 million barrels daily—as well as 20% of global liquefied natural gas. Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Qatar, and the UAE—the oil giants—all treat the Strait of Hormuz as their lifeline for exporting oil. Consequently, oil prices have already begun skyrocketing uncontrollably—from $70–80 per barrel toward $100 or even $150.

With the Middle East conflict raging, why is Japan the first to buckle?

Such a scenario would plunge oil-dependent countries into severe crisis—and Japan stands out as the most typical case. Following the incident, Tokyo’s stock market plunged for three consecutive days, with the Nikkei index dropping over 4,600 points—a 7.8% decline. The stock market is the barometer of the economy; its sharp fall signals impending economic damage—indicating that: On the global geopolitical chessboard, Japan may feel the war’s visceral pain even earlier than countries located within the Middle East itself. A fatal dependency and economic 'shock' As an island nation, Japan possesses extremely scarce domestic energy resources and relies heavily on imported oil and natural gas. According to Capital Economics, as of 2025, 94% of Japan’s oil imports originate from the Middle East. And nearly all Middle Eastern oil exports must pass through the Strait of Hormuz. Simultaneously, data from Japan’s Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) shows that roughly 70–80% of Japan’s oil tankers must transit the Strait of Hormuz. Thus, blocking the Strait of Hormuz would place Japan in immediate danger of complete oil supply cutoff. Japan’s three largest shipping companies—Nippon Yusen (NYK), Mitsui O.S.K. Lines (MOL), and Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha (K Line)—have already announced the immediate suspension of all voyages through the Strait of Hormuz. JERA—the largest LNG buyer in Japan—has warned: “Should the Middle East situation escalate or persist long-term, tanker navigation restrictions and other factors could disrupt Japan’s gas supply.” Yuki Toganoo, a researcher at the Japan Research Institute, forecasts that under the worst-case scenario—“a total cutoff of imports”—Japan’s real GDP would contract by approximately 3%. For an economy projected to grow by just 1.1% year-on-year in 2025, such a blow would be devastating.

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