Trump Himself and His Policies (03) — The Century-Long Trade War

As the saying goes, 'If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles.' Why did—and dare—Trump launch this smokeless, century-scale trade war targeting the entire world, key allies, and the Eastern great power—a conflict some call the Third World War? Was it impulsive recklessness or a long-premeditated strategy? Is there method to his madness—or is it simply chaotic brawling? I. A Century-Long Trade War with Clear Precedents 1. What Do 'Make America Great Again' and 'America First' Mean? First, we must fully understand what 'Make America Great Again' (MAGA) and 'America First' truly signify. 'Make America Great Again,' in its Version 2.0 iteration, upgrades economic nationalism in the economic domain: 'Buy American, Hire American.' It advocates using tariffs and industrial policy to bring manufacturing back home. 'America First,' concretely manifested in economic terms, means: • Prioritizing U.S. interests over international cooperation. • Imposing 'reciprocal tariffs'—claiming to levy 60% tariffs on Chinese goods and additional tariffs on countries that do not use the U.S. dollar. • 'Ending inflation and restoring purchasing power.' Blaming the Biden administration’s 'printing-press policy' for the worst inflation crisis, Trump pledges to curb prices through increased domestic energy production and supply-chain reorganization. 2. Early Signals Upon Taking Office Upon assuming office on January 20, Trump 2.0 immediately signed executive documents ordering a comprehensive review of U.S. trade policy—with findings scheduled for public release on April 1. On March 4, in a speech, Trump announced plans to impose 'equal tariffs' on certain countries by April 2, and stated he would study nations with the largest trade surpluses and highest tariff barriers. Unfortunately, these signals failed to attract sufficient market attention. 3. Incentives for Energy and Agricultural Policy In the early 2000s, the U.S.-developed shale oil extraction technology transformed America into a net petroleum exporter. Yet later, environmental regulations significantly raised extraction costs. Upon taking office, Trump swiftly lifted all restrictions on oil and gas drilling—especially environmental ones—voluntarily withdrew from the Paris Climate Agreement, relaxed methane-emission regulations, streamlined permitting procedures, provided subsidies, expanded fossil-fuel leasing on federal lands and offshore areas, and restarted construction of shale oil and natural gas pipelines. Comprehensive analysis shows that, in the short term, core shale-producing regions (e.g., the Permian Basin) can remain profitable at oil prices of $50–$60 per barrel; traditional onshore fields (e.g., Texas) enjoy even lower breakeven costs ($20–$40 per barrel), granting them greater resilience. Long-term technological advances—including automated drilling and AI-driven optimization—could further reduce costs by 10%–15%. Coupled with an improved pipeline transportation network, the U.S. could cap its overall oil production cost below $45 per barrel. Thus, as a major oil producer, the U.S. could both withstand and stabilize oil prices within the $55–$60 range—greatly anchoring domestic consumer prices (CPI). Likewise, in agriculture, Trump implemented multiple measures: cutting regulatory and environmental constraints, relaxing restrictions on fertilizer and pesticide use (substantially lowering compliance costs), increasing farm subsidies, and offering tax breaks for agricultural machinery and equipment purchases. Moreover, falling oil prices further reduced input costs for agricultural production. Energy and food together account for roughly 20%–30% of the U.S. CPI weight.

Will the successive moves now being carried out by Trump and Musk change the United States?

Over the past month since the Trump administration resumed operations, it has launched a coordinated multi-pronged campaign. In summary, I describe it in twelve characters: 'Loosen regulation, lower tariffs, cut budgets, shed responsibilities.' 1. Loosening Regulation Is the Top Priority This includes not only curtailing antitrust investigations and interventions against tech and internet companies, but also restricting the federal Department of Labor’s enforcement of minimum wage, overtime pay, and workplace safety requirements across all enterprises—aimed squarely at reducing corporate compliance burdens. In finance, the administration curbs the authority of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB), easing oversight of financial institutions. It raises the asset threshold for small and mid-sized banks, thereby lowering their capital requirements and stress-test mandates. In environmental policy, the U.S. withdraws from the Paris Climate Agreement and reduces federal carbon-emission restrictions. Methane-emission rules for oil and gas operations are relaxed, permitting more drilling and extraction activities. The National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) is repealed or revised to accelerate infrastructure project approvals. In healthcare and pharmaceuticals, more states gain waivers allowing work requirements for Medicaid recipients—reducing government healthcare spending. The FDA’s approval processes for certain drugs and medical devices are streamlined to speed up time-to-market. In energy, federal land-based oil and gas leasing is expanded, slashing corporate compliance costs. Drilling bans in certain wildlife refuges are rescinded. Fuel economy standards are lowered, and emissions restrictions on gasoline-powered vehicles—as well as production limits—are lifted. 2. Lowering Tariffs Contrary to appearances, the Trump administration’s repeated threats to raise tariffs are, in fact, strategically aimed at lowering tariffs—not just in the U.S., but globally. Namely: pressuring other countries to slash tariffs, value-added taxes, consumption taxes, and other non-tariff barriers imposed on U.S. exports.

Trump to Ease Oil Well Methane Curbs in Bid to Lower Costs

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President Trump plans to ease federal methane emission regulations for oil and gas operations to boost domestic production and lower consumer costs. The proposed EPA rule aims to generate $45 billion in savings while increasing oil and gas output through 2050.

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