What specific types of clinical trial and FDA-related outcomes will Kalshi allow betting on, and how are the betting criteria determined?

Kalshi will allow bets on outcomes of late-stage clinical trials and FDA regulatory decisions—including whether the FDA will approve specific experimental drugs like Gilead's anito-cel, Summit Therapeutics' ivonescimab, and whether AriBio's early Alzheimer's drug meets its trial's primary endpoint. Each betting contract is tied to a named public document—such as the registered primary endpoint on ClinicalTrials.gov, the FDA approval letter, or the advisory committee's voting record—and AppliedXL defines the criteria for interpreting that document before trading opens, not after results are known.

Who is eligible to trade on Kalshi’s new drug-development markets, and what restrictions apply?

All traders must undergo employment verification, and trading is prohibited for anyone who holds material nonpublic information—ensuring that only verified individuals with no insider advantage can participate in these markets.

Kalshi to Allow Bets on Clinical Trials and FDA Decisions

Jul 16, 2026

Prediction market platform Kalshi is launching new markets for clinical trial outcomes and FDA regulatory reviews in partnership with AppliedXL. Investors can now trade contracts based on specific drug approval decisions and late-stage trial results.

reuters

2026-07-16

Kalshi to Allow Bets on Clinical Trials and FDA Decisions

Kalshi to Allow Bets on Clinical Trials and FDA Decisions

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