Why have Goldman Sachs and Absa concluded that the Bank of Ghana will not cut interest rates in the second half of 2024?

Goldman Sachs and Absa concluded that the Bank of Ghana (BoG) will not cut interest rates in the second half of 2024 due to renewed geopolitical tensions from the escalation of the Iran war, which has restricted traffic through the Strait of Hormuz—causing spikes in fuel and urea prices—and contributing to higher oil prices, a weaker cedi, and upward pressure on inflation; as a result, Goldman revised its inflation forecasts higher and expects the BoG to remain on hold until year-end, while Absa analysts cited the same Middle East conflict–driven fuel price increases (3.8–6% in July’s second pricing window) as key reasons for expecting the policy rate to stay unchanged through the second half of the year.

What recent inflation data prompted analysts to revise their outlook for Ghana’s monetary policy?

Annual inflation in Ghana quickened to 5.3% in June—the fastest pace this year—up from 3.7% in May, prompting analysts to revise their outlook; this acceleration, combined with projected gradual rise into the BoG’s 6%–10% target band, risks from potential utility tariff adjustments, and heightened geopolitical uncertainty, led both Goldman Sachs and Absa to abandon earlier expectations of a third-quarter rate cut and instead forecast no easing through year-end.

Goldman, Absa Say Iran War Has Closed Window for Ghana Rate Cuts

Jul 23, 2026

Goldman Sachs and Absa report that Middle East tensions disrupting Strait of Hormuz traffic have spiked fuel and urea prices, forcing the Bank of Ghana to pause rate cuts amid rising inflation pressures.

bloomberg

2026-07-23

Goldman, Absa Say Iran War Has Closed Window for Ghana Rate Cuts

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