Why are China's private soybean crushers avoiding U.S. soybeans despite rising Brazilian prices and tightening supply?

China's private soybean crushers are avoiding U.S. soybeans primarily because of the 10% import tariff imposed by Beijing, which makes U.S. cargoes unprofitable even when priced competitively; as one crusher stated, 'We are not considering U.S. soybeans because of the tariffs,' and they would only recalculate crush margins 'if tariffs are reduced.'

What is the current state of crush margins for Brazilian and U.S. soybeans destined for China in October–December shipments?

Theoretical crush margins for both Brazilian and U.S. soybeans — excluding the additional 10% tariff — were negative, ranging from 150 to 230 yuan ($22.35 to $34.27) per ton in the red for October–December shipments, according to analyst Rosa Wang of Shanghai JC Intelligence Co. and three other traders and analysts.

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