Risk of U.S.-Iran conflict叠加 'one entity monopolizes one-third of global tanker capacity': Global tanker freight rates surge to a six-year high

The global Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC) market is undergoing its most severe freight-rate shock in six years. A dual impact—war-risk premiums and an unprecedented wave of fleet consolidation—is pushing freight rates to record highs, with spillover effects now being felt across physical crude oil prices and the broader tanker market. On February 25, Bloomberg reported that Saudi National Shipping Company Bahri recently chartered five VLCCs at a daily rate of $200,000—the highest level recorded by the Baltic Exchange in six years. One vessel, the DHT Jaguar, even fetched $208,000 per day. Meanwhile, Polymarket data shows the market-implied probability of a U.S. military strike against Iran before March 15 has risen to 47%. The risk of a Strait of Hormuz blockade is now rapidly being priced into freight rates and Brent crude futures, which remain above $70 per barrel. Another critical driver behind the rate surge cannot be overlooked. As previously reported by Wall Street Insights, Bloomberg cited multiple industry veterans stating that South Korea’s Sinokor Group has rapidly acquired or chartered a large number of vessels over the past one to two months, now controlling approximately 120 VLCCs—roughly one-third of the globally available, tradable VLCC fleet. Ole Hjertaker, CEO of shipping company SFL Corp., stated bluntly: “Effectively, one party—or a group of collaborators—controls about one-third of the available or actively traded VLCC fleet.” This highly concentrated market structure is reshaping global tanker pricing mechanisms. War premium: Strait of Hormuz risk returns to the core of market pricing Reports indicate the Strait of Hormuz has once again become the most sensitive geopolitical nerve center for global energy markets. According to CCTV News, Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian led an Iranian delegation to Geneva, Switzerland, on the evening of February 25, ahead of the third round of Iran-U.S. talks scheduled for February 26. Wall Street Insights noted that U.S. President Donald Trump recently acknowledged he was considering launching a “limited military strike” against Iran. With U.S.-Iran relations remaining tense, market expectations of potential U.S. military action have surged rapidly, and war-risk insurance premiums have been swiftly incorporated into VLCC charter rate quotations. Polymarket’s probability pricing for “Will the U.S. strike Iran before March 15?” has reached 47%, directly reflecting the market’s heightened vigilance toward disruption risks in the Strait of Hormuz. Analysts believe that if Iran were to close the Strait, global energy markets would face immediate panic-driven shocks—and VLCCs, as the primary carriers of Middle Eastern crude exports, would see their charter rates hit first and hardest. At the same time, Brent crude futures are also reflecting this risk premium, trading above $70 per barrel in Thursday’s early session.

Soaring tanker freight rates: the wildest industry amid the U.S.-Israel-Iran war

According to data released by the Baltic Exchange on January 23, 2026, the weekly freight rate assessment for the TD3C voyage—from the Middle East Gulf to China, carrying 270,000 metric tons—stood at WS126.5, equivalent to a standard Baltic VLCC’s daily round-trip Time Charter Equivalent (TCE) of $112,394. In the Atlantic market, the TD15 voyage—carrying 260,000 metric tons from West Africa to China—was assessed at WS117.31, translating to a one-way TCE of $101,263. The TD22 voyage—from the U.S. Gulf of Mexico to China—was quoted at approximately $13.65–13.7 million, implying a daily round-trip TCE slightly below $93,500. Since the start of 2026, U.S.-Iran tensions have continued escalating. On January 31, 2026, U.S. President Trump warned Iran that a “massive naval fleet” was en route to the Persian Gulf. On Friday, January 30, tanker freight rates surged more than 60% in a single day. Bloomberg, citing Baltic Exchange data, reported that on Monday, February 2, a VLCC transporting crude oil from the Middle East to China saw its daily rate jump to $129,000—a 5.1% increase that day and the highest since November 2025. By February 18, VLCC rates had climbed to $150,000 per day; on February 24, the daily charter rate for a VLCC capable of carrying 2 million barrels soared to $170,000—tripling from early-2026 levels and reaching a six-year high. On February 28, 2026, war broke out among the United States, Israel, and Iran. Global VLCC average freight rates surged sharply, reaching $280,941 per day as of March 2, 2026—the highest level since at least 2008. Moreover, according to the Baltic Exchange’s TD3C MEG-China index, on March 2, 2026, the daily charter rate for a VLCC capable of transporting roughly 2 million barrels of crude oil hit a new all-time high of $423,736—the highest ever recorded for this freight-rate benchmark, driven specifically by the Middle East-to-China route on that day. On March 5, 2026, insurers began suspending war-risk coverage, triggering a period of frenzied freight-rate escalation. According to Bloomberg’s compilation of Baltic Exchange data, on Monday, August 17, the benchmark VLCC freight rate for the Persian Gulf-to-China route surged to $510,000 per day. On Thursday, August 27, the freight rate for the Saudi Arabia-to-China super-tanker route spiked to a record $647,000 per day—more than ten times higher than the same period in 2025 and nearly 27% above the $510,000 level reached just ten days earlier. Meanwhile, freight rates rose even outside the Strait of Hormuz: on August 27, the daily freight rate for a tanker sailing from Oman to China stood at approximately $220,000—up from $131,000 per day just one month earlier. On September 10, 2026, the benchmark VLCC daily freight rate for voyages from the Middle East to China surged to a historic high of nearly $800,000; the benchmark freight rate for voyages from the Gulf of Oman to East Asia reached nearly $386,000 per day—an 85% surge since the index’s inception.

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