Petrobras CEO says the company is ready to be the world's last oil producer.

Over the past two decades, Brazil has become a major oil-producing country—unlike many of its Latin American peers. Drilling crews have tapped massive offshore pre-salt oil fields, where crude oil lies trapped beneath geological salt layers. Petrobras operates most of these fields, while international companies such as Shell hold minority stakes. Earlier this year, upon beginning his third term, Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva appointed Prates—who stated that oil production would remain a top priority. In contrast, Petrobras’s investments in wind energy and other renewable technologies will be modest. Prates’s remarks may ease concerns among some minority investors that the new administration would prioritize non-core projects over oil and gas operations. Although Lula has consistently supported climate action—including pledges to curb deforestation in the Amazon—he remains a staunch backer of Brazil’s petroleum industry. During his first two terms, the oil boom generated steadily rising tax revenues, helping fund his ambitious social spending programs. Brazil’s daily oil output is set to reach a record 3.4 million barrels this year—and will continue growing until 2030. After that, the country will need new discoveries to sustain and expand production. Prates, aged 54, was a senator for Lula’s Workers’ Party before his appointment. He said: “As a large producer, we entered this race late—but we must keep moving forward.” He emphasized that the top priorities are developing existing pre-salt discoveries and identifying new ones, while also seeking to open new basins elsewhere in Brazil—including the so-called Equatorial Margin in the country’s far north. The geology there resembles that of nearby Guyana, where ExxonMobil discovered billions of barrels of oil. Petrobras is preparing to begin exploratory drilling in this region but is awaiting regulatory approval. Located near the mouth of the Amazon River, the site is controversial and has raised concerns from Brazil’s Environment Minister Marina Silva. Prates said: “The Brazilian government will have to decide whether this activity proceeds. All we’re doing is looking for oil.” He added that, if approved, Petrobras could start drilling an exploration well as early as April.

As of November 2025, Brazil plans to blast approximately 35 kilometers of rocky rapids along the Araguaia-Tocantins River—one of the Amazon Basin’s main tributaries—and dredge another ~177 kilometers of river channel to create a year-round grain transport highway. This initiative aims to significantly reduce transportation costs for agricultural commodities such as soybeans. The project carries an investment of up to USD 7.3 billion. Upon completion, the waterway is expected to deliver around 20 million tons of corn and soybeans annually to northern river ports—cutting pollution from long-haul trucking and lowering transport costs by roughly 60% compared with road transport. A Brazilian soybean cargo vessel carrying 69,000 tons was denied customs clearance by Chinese authorities after 10 tons of wheat contaminated with a pesticide banned in China were found inside the ship’s hold. Driven by strong Chinese demand, Brazil’s soybean exports this year are projected to hit a historic high of 100 million tons. Soybean exports in November 2025 are expected to reach 4.4 million tons—down 310,000 tons from the prior week’s forecast of 4.71 million tons, yet still up 88% year-on-year from 2.339 million tons in November 2024. Full-year soybean exports are projected to reach a record 110 million tons. Since late October, China has purchased approximately 3.5 million tons of U.S. soybeans—about 30% of its targeted 12-million-ton procurement volume. As of the week ending November 21, commercial soybean meal inventories at Chinese crushing plants stood at 1.1 million tons—up 148,000 tons week-on-week. Crushers continue urging buyers to collect shipments, while downstream buyers remain cautious. Looking ahead, sustained Chinese purchases of U.S. soybeans suggest relatively high supply pressure in Q1 next year. - As of October 2025: In 2015, Brazil and the United States together accounted for 56% of China’s grain imports; by 2024, that share had risen to 71%; and from January to August 2025, it further climbed to 77%. It is anticipated that Brazilian grain exports to China will assume a dominant position in the future. Brazilian grain storage data sources include: the National Registry of Warehousing Units (SICARM), maintained by the National Supply Company (Conab); biannual inventory surveys conducted by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE); and IBGE’s decennial agricultural census—the most recent of which was carried out in 2017. Static storage capacity in 2024: approximately 210–220 million tons. SICARM shows that 89.3% of capacity is for bulk commodities; IBGE data indicate silos account for 49%, while bulk and semi-bulk facilities make up 34%. According to the 2017 Agricultural Census storage classification: silos accounted for 60%, traditional warehouses for 23%. 88.8% of warehouses are owned by agricultural enterprises. The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) recommends that a country’s static storage capacity should equal or exceed 1.2 times its annual agricultural output. In the U.S., storage capacity stands at 131% of output; in Brazil, only 70%. In 2005, Brazil’s static relative storage capacity for all grains—defined as static capacity divided by grain output—was 92.6%, falling short of the FAO benchmark of 120.0%.

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