UBS: How Intel's Stock Price Can Be 'Rided' Like This

[The Disappearing P/E Ratio: Valuing Heritage Instead of Profits] UBS has abandoned the traditional price-to-earnings (P/E) valuation method for Intel and instead adopted a 'sum-of-the-parts' (SOTP) approach. Normally, a company’s stock performance is assessed based on how much it earns (EPS). Yet, as Intel’s profitability declines, UBS has split the company into two distinct entities for valuation purposes: its 'Products' division and its 'Foundry' (wafer fabrication) division. The Products division is assigned a valuation multiple of just 15x. The Foundry division, meanwhile, is valued using 'enterprise value per wafer' (EV/Wafer). The core logic here is this: since TSMC’s production capacity commands an exceptionally high market value, Intel’s vast factory infrastructure and equipment—even though its technology and yield rates lag behind TSMC’s (UBS applies a 45% discount)—still represent a massive book-value asset. In other words, the foundation supporting UBS’s $49 target price is no longer Intel’s future earnings power—but rather its 'piggybacking' on TSMC’s asset valuation. This explains why Intel’s stock rating could be upgraded even while the company remains unprofitable: TSMC is being valued on profitability; Intel, on its balance-sheet assets. Interestingly, if TSMC performs even better in 2026, Intel’s stock price will rise accordingly under this model. [Parasitic Valuation: Intel’s Stock Gains Value Solely Because TSMC Is Profitable] To justify Intel’s $9 share-price increase, UBS abandoned the conventional P/E ratio and adopted the SOTP methodology. The most absurd aspect of this logic is that it creates a 'parasitic relationship': UBS argues that because TSMC is performing so well, the market-wide 'enterprise value per wafer' (EV/Wafer) has surged. And since Intel owns factories of comparable scale, its 'book-value assets' should rise too—even if those facilities sit idle or suffer from poor yields. Under this logic, Intel’s shareholders need not monitor the company’s operational performance at all; instead, they might as well light a prayer candle for TSMC’s CEO at a temple. The higher TSMC’s stock climbs, the more 'valuable' Intel’s factories become—and the higher UBS’s calculated target price rises. It’s akin to your neighbor opening a Michelin three-star restaurant whose booming business drives up real-estate valuations—so a property agent knocks on your door and says: 'Your kitchen may never produce gourmet meals and has posted losses every year, but since you use the same gas stove as your neighbor, your restaurant is now worth more—and your rent must go up.' TSMC is valued on profitability; Intel, on asset replacement cost. This signals Wall Street’s complete loss of faith in Intel’s core business profitability. [The Technological Cost Hidden in 38%] Once the valuation sleight-of-hand is stripped away and fundamentals are revisited, UBS forecasts Intel’s full-year 2026 gross margin to land around 38%. While TSMC comfortably holds above the 60% threshold, Intel remains mired near the 38% trough. That 22-percentage-point gap reflects the steep price of technological backwardness.

UBS: Significantly Lowers Spotify’s (SPOT.US) Target Price to $185, Maintains 'Neutral' Rating

Guron Finance, April 5 — UBS issued a research report stating it has lowered Spotify’s (SPOT.US) target price from $275 to $185, while maintaining its 'Neutral' rating. Analyst Batya Levi noted that Spotify’s revised target price reflects intensifying geopolitical and macroeconomic headwinds, as well as recent increases in investment spending, which will constrain the company’s gross margin expansion. Nonetheless, the firm believes Spotify’s Q1 KPIs remain stable in the absence of geopolitical disruptions. Levi also stated that Spotify’s recent in-app billing agreement with Google (GOOG.US) represents another step in the right direction, reducing friction in converting ad-supported subscribers to paid subscriptions.

Orion Launches PRINTEX Product as UBS Cuts Stock Target

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Orion Engineered Carbons launched PRINTEX chroma 450 BEADS for engineered plastics, though UBS cut its stock target to $6.50 following a missed earnings expectation despite higher revenue.

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Orion Launches PRINTEX Product as UBS Cuts Stock Target

Orion Launches PRINTEX Product as UBS Cuts Stock Target

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