The excess profits generated by war have once again made major oil companies a target of attack.

On June 29, 2026, U.S. President Donald Trump posted a final ultimatum on the social media platform Truth Social, directly addressing U.S. gas station retailers: reduce gasoline prices to approximately $2.50 per gallon—or face 'serious problems.' He warned of zero tolerance for so-called 'illegal price gouging' and escalated an action campaign ongoing for several weeks, aimed at forcing energy companies to pass wholesale price reductions on to consumers. At that time, international crude oil prices were fluctuating between $60 and $68 per barrel—a relatively low level by recent historical standards. Trump’s argument was straightforward: if raw materials are cheap, then finished products should be too. This was not an isolated outburst. The June 29 statement followed a similar declaration he issued on June 24; prior to that, on June 25, he had already publicly accused oil companies of exploiting consumers by failing to pass on lower wholesale costs. In his June 29 post, alongside sharp criticism came threats—at least implicit ones. Trump ordered the Department of Justice to investigate oil companies, specifically focusing on the gap between the fuel prices paid by retailers and those actually paid by consumers at gas stations. Moreover, California received special attention in this post. Trump pointed out that the state’s fuel tax policy imposed a heavy burden on drivers. As Trump intensified scrutiny over gasoline prices, major oil companies stood poised to record unprecedented profits. Soaring international oil prices inevitably generate substantial excess profits for oil-producing and exporting countries—and for oil companies—just as they have done throughout the 160-plus-year history of the global petroleum industry. Yet, while the Trump administration grappled with persistently high domestic fuel prices, highly profitable major oil companies found themselves squarely in Trump’s crosshairs. Industry expert Tsvetana Paraskova detailed this situation in an article published on the website OilPrice.com on July 6, 2026. Paraskova noted that major oil companies were expecting unexpected second-quarter profits: ExxonMobil and Chevron’s earnings were projected to more than triple, driven by disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz that sent crude prices surging and boosted refining margins. Although industry insiders acknowledged that retail gasoline prices typically lag behind declines in crude prices, this profit surge was intensifying political pressure—prompting President Trump to demand gasoline prices fall to $2.25–$2.50 per gallon and to launch investigations into price manipulation. Oil companies countered by citing the cyclical nature of markets, attributing the current rise in gasoline prices primarily to low fuel inventories, improved refining economics, and supply-chain delays—not to profiteering. With the Strait of Hormuz closed, crude oil prices had surged to their highest level in four years, and oil majors anticipated unexpected gains in the second quarter. ExxonMobil and Chevron’s profits were projected to triple in the April–June quarter compared to the first quarter, as the most severe supply disruption in oil market history impeded Middle Eastern oil exports, triggered a sharp rise in crude prices, heightened market volatility, and depleted oil inventories—including those in the United States.

Geopolitical conflict fuels energy windfalls and economic fragmentation: A deep macroeconomic analysis of oil-price dynamics, oil-company excess profits, and global macroeconomic impacts amid the U.S.–Iran war.

Introduction At the end of February 2026, the United States and Israel jointly launched large-scale airstrikes against Iran, triggering a full-blown military confrontation among the U.S., Israel, and Iran. Global energy’s critical maritime corridor—the Strait of Hormuz—saw its shipping severely disrupted, sending the international crude oil market into violent turbulence. Geopolitical risk premiums pushed oil prices steadily higher. America’s leading oil giants—ExxonMobil and Chevron—capitalized on the soaring prices to secure historic excess profits, with some firms’ profits reaching 12 times year-on-year levels. On August 3 (local time), U.S. President Donald Trump publicly expressed dissatisfaction with oil companies’ windfall profits at the White House: on one hand, he condemned them for seizing wartime gains and refusing to pass savings on to end consumers, and demanded oil majors slash domestic retail fuel prices; on the other, he bluntly forecast that once the U.S. fully resolves the Iranian issue and Middle Eastern geopolitical tensions stabilize, global oil prices would plunge precipitously. This energy-price storm, ignited by military conflict, has long transcended the scope of commodity markets, forming a complete economic transmission chain: Middle Eastern geopolitical disturbance → violent fluctuations in international oil prices → U.S. oil companies reaping wartime windfalls → domestic inflation rebounding and household consumption coming under pressure → the Federal Reserve caught in a monetary-policy dilemma → executive branch pressuring energy giants → global industrial-chain cost restructuring. Researchers from the Ameriga Global Economic Research Institute (Shanghai), a subsidiary of Ameriga Global (Shanghai) Economic Development Co., Ltd., had earlier observed and analyzed this dynamic, noting that the current oil-price volatility is far more than a standalone energy-market event—it will reshape global cross-border supply chains, regional trade layouts, digital-industry cost structures, and the pace of new-energy development. Several domestic industrial research institutions have likewise conducted complementary analyses across dimensions including supply chains, digital technology, and industrial manufacturing. This article provides a comprehensive, in-depth economic analysis across six dimensions: crude oil pricing logic; deconstruction of U.S. oil-company profitability; macroeconomic shocks to the United States; global inflation and trade patterns; expectations-based博弈 (game-theoretic) analysis of oil-price increases and decreases; and the future trajectory of the energy sector—clarifying the underlying operational logic of energy economics amid geopolitical warfare, unpacking the dual economic and political motivations behind Trump’s pressure on oil companies, and forecasting the profound implications of the conflict’s trajectory for oil prices and the global economy. Chapter I: The U.S.–Iran Conflict Restructures the Global Crude Oil Supply Landscape—Geopolitical Premiums Emerge as the Core Driver of Oil Prices 1.1 The Strait of Hormuz: The Lifeline of the Global Oil Supply Chain and the Fundamental Catalyst Behind This Oil-Price Surge The Strait of Hormuz controls the sole maritime outlet from the Persian Gulf, handling roughly 30% of seaborne crude oil shipments and about 20% of total global crude oil consumption. Core Middle Eastern producers—including Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, and Iran—rely heavily on this waterway for crude exports, earning it the widely recognized title of the 'world’s oil valve.' Following the U.S.–Israel airstrikes against Iran at the end of February 2026, Iran swiftly retaliated—deploying drones and missiles to harass passing tankers and installing maritime blockade infrastructure. As a result, the Strait’s navigation efficiency plummeted by half; numerous crude carriers were forced to reroute, causing sharp spikes in maritime transportation costs and insurance premiums. Markets formed persistent fears of supply disruption—not due to actual crude output cuts, but rather to sustained logistical paralysis. This became the core trigger behind the oil-price surge. Prior to the outbreak of hostilities, WTI (U.S.) crude oil traded steadily within the $65–$68/barrel range, while Brent crude hovered near $72/barrel. Within one month of the conflict’s onset, Brent crude hit an intraday high of $126/barrel, and WTI breached $100/barrel—a short-term surge exceeding 54%, marking the largest single-phase oil-price jump in nearly four years. Even as markets gradually absorbed some of the extreme panic, prices experienced only partial pullbacks. As of early August, both benchmark crude contracts remained over 20% higher than pre-war levels, while U.S. retail gasoline prices rose nearly 40%: data from the American Automobile Association (AAA) showed the national average gasoline price surging from $2.98/gallon before the war to $4.10/gallon—fuel-cost inflation directly straining American households’ daily expenditures.

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