Global LNG Industry Outlook — Short-Term Capacity Constraints Persist, Long-Term Supply Structure Improves

At the project level, among the world’s top ten operational LNG projects each with annual capacity exceeding 10 million tonnes, the United States hosts three, Australia two, and Qatar, Nigeria, Malaysia, Russia, and Oman each host one. Except for Australia’s Gorgon LNG project, all other LNG projects are operated by domestic entities in their respective countries. Notably, QatarGas LNG—Qatar’s flagship project—has a design capacity of 77.1 million tonnes per year and is currently undergoing expansion to become the world’s first LNG project with an annual output exceeding 100 million tonnes. Globally, the growth rate of LNG liquefaction capacity has slowed, while capacity utilization remains high. Upstream gas supply constraints, geopolitical rivalry, and limited national capabilities collectively restrict further increases in global capacity utilization, resulting in relatively limited supply elasticity. The United States and Qatar will serve as key drivers of future liquefaction capacity growth. In terms of liquefaction technology, mainstream global technologies include AP-C3MR (Air Products’ propane-precooled mixed refrigerant process), ConocoPhillips’ Optimized Cascade, and Shell’s Dual Mixed Refrigerant (DMR) technology. AP-C3MR—developed by Air Products and Chemicals—currently commands nearly 60% of the global market share for large-scale LNG projects. Regarding existing capacity: In 2024, global design liquefaction capacity reached 490 million tonnes per year—exceeding同期 global LNG trade volume (410 million tonnes)—with a modest year-on-year growth of only 1.3%. Currently, LNG export facilities are operated across 22 countries and regions. The top three liquefaction capacity holders are the United States (97.5 million tonnes/year), Australia (87.6 million tonnes/year), and Qatar (77.1 million tonnes/year), collectively accounting for 53.0% of global design liquefaction capacity. Since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in February 2022, Europe has increased LNG imports to offset reduced pipeline gas imports from Russia, thereby lifting global liquefaction capacity utilization. In recent years, global liquefaction capacity utilization has remained at a relatively high range of 80–90%. In 2024, the global average utilization rate stood at 86.7%, down slightly by 2 percentage points year-on-year—mainly due to weather-related factors and scheduled equipment maintenance. Major exporting countries largely maintained over- or full-capacity operations: Russia and Qatar exceeded 100% actual utilization, while the United States, Australia, and Malaysia each surpassed or approached 90%. LNG supply elasticity is superior to that of pipeline gas but significantly lower than that of crude oil. It can respond effectively to minor fluctuations in demand on the LNG consumption side, yet its ability to cope with sharp short-term demand surges remains limited. At present, numerous factors impede rapid expansion of global actual liquefaction capacity: First, upstream gas supply constraints—for example, Egypt, Nigeria, and Trinidad and Tobago face declining gas fields and natural disasters, preventing their LNG projects from operating at full capacity; Second, geopolitical rivalry—for instance, U.S. sanctions have hindered progress on Russia’s Arctic LNG 2 project (designed annual capacity: 19.8 million tonnes), making near-term additions to liquefaction capacity highly challenging; Third, insufficient national capability—as seen in Nigeria and Malaysia, where outdated infrastructure and aging energy equipment undermine operational stability.

A New Wave of LNG Supply Triggers Concerns Over Oversupply

Analysts suggest that the tight LNG market of the first half of this decade may shift to substantial oversupply in the latter half of the 2020s. However, medium-term demand remains highly uncertain. Some market observers note that if demand rises in Asia and Europe—and especially if new power demand from data centers continues surging—any oversupply could be absorbed faster than previously anticipated. — A New Wave of LNG Supply Qatar is currently the world’s second-largest LNG exporter, trailing only the United States. The country is executing an ambitious expansion plan aiming to increase its export capacity by 85% by 2030. QatarEnergy has drilled appraisal wells in the world’s largest natural gas field—the North Field—which it shares with Iran, and discovered “substantial additional gas reserves.” It is now advancing the “North Field West” project. This Gulf nation has recently signed 27-year LNG supply agreements with multiple European and Asian countries—including Italy, France, the Netherlands, and China. Qatar’s main competitor in these markets is the United States—the world’s largest LNG exporter—which offers greater flexibility in cargo delivery, including buyers’ rights to resell cargoes. New U.S. projects are coming online this year. President-elect Trump is expected to strongly support the LNG industry and exports, potentially leveraging LNG as a bargaining chip in tariff negotiations with trade partners. Supply from the United States is expanding with the startup of Venture Global’s second Louisiana facility, Plaquemines LNG, and the commissioning of Cheniere’s third phase at Corpus Christi. Both Plaquemines LNG and Corpus Christi Phase III received their first natural gas deliveries in late December 2024 and are expected to ramp up operations and exports this year. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) stated in its December Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) that U.S. LNG exports are projected to grow by 15% in 2025—to nearly 14 billion cubic feet per day—driven by enhanced export capacity at Plaquemines LNG and Corpus Christi LNG Phase III. President-elect Trump has warned that Europe faces “full tariffs” unless it purchases significantly more U.S. oil and gas. Consulting firm Rystad Energy noted last month that the Trump administration could use LNG as a negotiating tool in trade talks with Europe. The incoming U.S. administration is also expected to reverse President Biden’s pause on LNG export permits—a move likely to encourage U.S. developers to make final investment decisions (FIDs) on new projects in the coming years. According to the EIA, overall North American LNG export capacity is projected to more than double between 2024 and 2028—from 11.4 billion cubic feet per day in 2023 to 24.4 billion cubic feet per day in 2028—if currently under-construction projects come online as scheduled. Per EIA data, LNG export capacity is expected to rise by 0.08 billion cubic feet per day in Mexico, 2.5 billion cubic feet per day in Canada, and 9.7 billion cubic feet per day in the United States between 2024 and 2028. Currently, ten new projects are under construction across these three countries.

Commonwealth LNG Plans Expansion That Will Nearly Double Export Capacity

Sep 15, 2026

Commonwealth LNG plans to nearly double export capacity with a second phase adding five units, backed by Kimmeridge Energy and Abu Dhabi’s sovereign wealth fund. The move aligns with Trump administration policies boosting US LNG exports amidst supply disruptions.

bloomberg

2026-09-15

Commonwealth LNG Plans Expansion That Will Nearly Double Export Capacity

Commonwealth LNG Plans Expansion That Will Nearly Double Export Capacity

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