The 2026 international liquefied natural gas (LNG) market, characterized by oversupply and heightened vulnerability to geopolitical shocks

According to the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) Q1 2026 ‘Gas Market Report’, global natural gas demand in 2025 totaled 4.286 trillion cubic meters, with growth sharply decelerating from 2.8% in 2024 to just 0.82%; production stood at 4.264 trillion cubic meters, up 0.94% year-on-year. Industry data indicate that global LNG exports in 2025 are projected to reach 445 million tonnes, a 7% increase year-on-year; demand is expected to reach 430 million tonnes, up 6% from 2024. The United States was the largest contributor to LNG supply growth in 2025, with cumulative LNG exports forecast to reach as high as 117 million tonnes—up 32% year-on-year. This abundant supply has driven sharp declines in international natural gas prices: the Dutch TTF 2025 futures price fell by €22.394 per MWh, a staggering 44.29% drop—far exceeding the同期 18.79% decline in Brent crude oil futures. Market consensus anticipates that the commissioning of numerous new LNG export facilities—primarily in the United States—will trigger severe oversupply in the international LNG market in 2026, pushing prices down further. On January 25, 2026, industry expert Felicity Bradstock wrote on the website 'Oil Price' that the U.S. set a new record in LNG trade in 2025, exporting an estimated 111 million tonnes; even more new capacity is slated to come online in 2026, exerting further downward pressure on prices. While surging U.S. LNG exports were initially welcomed by Europe as a replacement for Russian gas, they have now sparked concerns over growing overreliance on U.S. energy supplies. The IEA has revised its earlier forecasts, now projecting continued global LNG demand growth through 2050—driven primarily by rising electricity demand from the technology sector and delays in achieving renewable energy capacity targets. As multiple countries ramp up LNG production and export efforts—and with a record-breaking 2025 followed by a wave of new LNG projects scheduled to commence operations in 2026—supply may soon outstrip demand. This raises a critical question: amid expanding global renewable energy capacity, how much LNG will truly be needed to ‘bridge the gap’? 2025 marked a record year for LNG trade, with export volumes surpassing numerous industry forecasts. U.S.-driven growth accounted for most of this expansion: the country exported over 100 million tonnes of LNG in 2025, thanks to newly commissioned liquefaction plants across the nation. According to data from the London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG), U.S. LNG exports in 2025 are estimated at 111 million tonnes—23 million tonnes higher than the previous year—significantly exceeding Qatar, the world’s second-largest exporter, whose 2025 exports totaled 20 million tonnes. In 2025, U.S. LNG exports accounted for approximately 25% of total global LNG exports.

The intensifying competition in the 2024 international natural gas market

In April 2024, Canada’s Red Cedar LNG project signed its second 20-year LNG sales agreement with Pembina Pipeline Corporation, covering 1.5 million tonnes per year—following a similar agreement signed with ARC Resources in 2023. Woodfibre LNG signed its third and final sales agreement—with BP—fully securing its production capacity. Meanwhile, Mexico Pacific LNG, headquartered in Texas, completed marketing for the first three liquefaction trains. Overall, Wood Mackenzie expects LNG sales contract activity to remain robust in 2024—a highly favorable development for the U.S. and North American LNG industry, where additional off-take agreements are essential to advance project development. Among U.S. LNG sales contracts signed in 2024, the most notable was Venture Global LNG’s acquisition of regasification capacity at a new LNG terminal in Greece, announced in September 2024. According to Reuters, Venture Global LNG—a U.S. producer based in the North American basin—secured five-year regasification rights starting in 2025 at the new Alexandroupolis LNG terminal in Greece, enabling annual throughput of approximately one million tonnes of LNG. Reuters noted that the new North–South Gas Corridor will bolster European energy security by facilitating imports to replace regional gas supplies. Mike Sabel, CEO of Venture Global, stated in a press release: “This move further integrates our business across the LNG value chain—including liquefaction, transportation, and regasification—by expanding our asset footprint. As a strategically vital infrastructure gateway for LNG into Central and Eastern Europe, this facility will transform regional energy diversification and enhance access to secure, reliable energy supplies.” “Venture Global is proud to serve as a strategic partner in these efforts, supporting them with output from the Plaquemines LNG project and future Phase II volumes from the Calcasieu Pass LNG project.” (II) Offering more attractive terms: Middle Eastern nations aggressively compete for LNG market share Beyond U.S. LNG exporters, Middle Eastern LNG suppliers have seized the opportunity presented by the Biden administration’s temporary pause on U.S. LNG export authorizations to steadily capture market share from their American competitors. Qatar—the former world leader in LNG exports—is striving to reclaim that position, aiming to expand its liquefaction capacity from 77 million tonnes per year to 126 million tonnes per year by 2027. Building upon a contract originally signed in 1999, renewed in 2015, and set to expire in 2028, QatarEnergy and Petronet—the largest LNG trader in India—signed a new 20-year LNG supply agreement on February 6, 2024, guaranteeing annual deliveries of 7.5 million tonnes to India. In 2023, India imported 10.6 million tonnes of LNG from Qatar—approximately half of India’s total LNG imports that year.

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