The Nasdaq hits a new all-time high; tech stocks ignore the Fed’s hawkish tone; AMD’s market cap exceeds $1 trillion; crude oil and gold prices fall—what’s your take? Will the tech rally continue?

The Nasdaq and AI-related stocks signaled strength last week: despite the strong headwind of rising long-term Treasury yields, growth stocks still outperformed value stocks, momentum factors rebounded, and the semiconductor sector’s structural outlook remains positive. Yesterday brought favorable tailwinds and catalysts: both oil prices and long-term Treasury yields fell. Meta launched its personal AI agent app ‘Muse’, which surged to #1 on app download charts—and its stock jumped 11%. Users trigger a compute cycle each time they ask Muse to perform a task. If millions of users adopt Muse as a daily habit, total compute demand could surge rapidly—and crucially, this is a consumer-facing (to-C) business, not a B2B one. Investors love that narrative. But the market won’t focus solely on Meta—it will search for other platforms with the same three ingredients: massive existing user bases, robust payment infrastructure, and habitual, high-frequency daily engagement. Tencent meets all three criteria. Meanwhile, China’s internet stocks have recently performed well: the KWEB ETF (tracking Chinese internet companies) has roughly formed a double bottom, sitting right near a key support zone. You don’t need to hold long-term—but the risk-reward profile here looks attractive. Over the weekend, I reviewed the overall U.S. equity landscape. What should we watch next week? How do we analyze financial conditions? How do we assess whether the semiconductor and AI rally is truly reviving? At that time, I set a benchmark for semiconductor recovery: Can the Semiconductor HOLDRS Fund (SMH) outperform the broader market? Specifically, can the SMH/SPY ratio break above its August high of 0.76? Well, yesterday, SMH/SPY rose to 0.77—and broke through a critical trendline, turning upward. That’s a positive signal. Still, both the Nasdaq and semiconductor ETFs are technically in limbo: they’re hovering precisely at the inflection point of trend reversal—not yet confirmed bullish. We’ll keep watching closely this week. One more note: For this AI rally to sustain, breadth across the U.S. equity market must improve.

Can the U.S. stock market sustain its rebound?

Immediately after the latest rate hike was fully priced in, markets bounced back sharply today. The S&P 500 posted its largest single-day gain in six weeks, while the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index—the best proxy for AI-driven tech—soared 3.14%. This wasn’t just a simple oversold bounce. A critical factor was oil prices falling for the second consecutive day: Brent crude dropped to around $105 per barrel. Simultaneously, the 10-year Treasury yield retreated from its prior peak near 5% down to the 4.93%–4.95% range. For tech stocks, oil prices and Treasury yields matter far more than any sentiment indicator. Just days ago, markets fretted over this transmission chain: rising oil → revived inflation expectations → Fed forced to hold rates higher for longer → 10-year yield breaches 5% → tech valuations crushed. Today, however, falling oil reversed that logic—delivering a major tailwind for tech. Yet although tech rallied strongly last night, the broader U.S. equity market did *not* see broad-based gains. Internal divergence is intensifying. Take last night: the tech sector rose 2.20%, but financials edged lower. Strip out AI-related names, and the S&P 500 barely moved versus Tuesday’s close. On the Nasdaq, more stocks hit new lows than new highs. Going forward, stock-level divergence will only widen. Mega-cap tech leaders—Apple, Microsoft, Google, Amazon—are likely to remain tightly clustered. As financing costs rise, smaller firms face mounting survival pressure; companies with weak cash flow become increasingly vulnerable to price collapse. Real estate, manufacturing, and highly leveraged firms will be the first drained by high rates. In contrast, tech giants sit on mountains of cash and rarely rely on debt to fund operations. The more sensitive markets become to rate-hike fears, the less willing investors are to touch small caps—leaving capital concentrated in just a handful of AI titans and chip leaders. That dynamic may produce a paradox: many U.S. companies suffer severe declines in the real economy, yet the major indices stay propped up at lofty levels. So future U.S. equity gains won’t come from broad-based rallies—but rather from a few heavyweight stocks single-handedly lifting the index.

US Stock Futures Flat as Tech Bounce Meets Crude-Driven Caution

23 hours ago

US stock futures traded sideways as tech stocks rallied amid rising crude oil prices and geopolitical tensions. Biopharma firm Summit Therapeutics jumped 22% following a $2 billion investment deal with AstraZeneca.

reuters

2026-09-29

US Stock Futures Flat as Tech Bounce Meets Crude-Driven Caution

US Stock Futures Flat as Tech Bounce Meets Crude-Driven Caution

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