Why does Goldman Sachs view the UAE's exit from OPEC as a greater medium-term oil supply upside risk than short-term?

Goldman Sachs states that the UAE's exit from OPEC and OPEC+ poses a greater upside risk to oil supply over the medium term because it weakens the producer group's control over global supplies and could eventually give Abu Dhabi more room to raise output once Gulf export routes—particularly the Strait of Hormuz—reopen; the bank notes the Strait's current effective closure limits UAE output in the short term, but the exit implies upside to its base case of UAE crude production recovering to 3.8 million barrels per day by October 2026, with estimated potential production reaching just over 4.5 million bpd by February 2026.

What is Goldman Sachs' estimate for UAE crude production capacity by early 2026, and how does it compare to pre-war levels?

Goldman Sachs estimates the UAE's potential crude production at just over 4.5 million barrels per day by February 2026, compared to 3.6 million bpd before the war, and above its base-case projection of 3.8 million bpd by October 2026; this reflects upside risk tied to the UAE's OPEC exit and anticipated reopening of Gulf export routes.

Goldman says UAE's exit from OPEC raises medium-term oil supply upside risk

Apr 29, 2026

Goldman Sachs warns the UAE's OPEC exit poses medium-term upside risks to oil supply, estimating production could reach 3.8 million bpd by October 2026. ADNOC aims to expand capacity to 5 million bpd by 2027 amidst geopolitical tensions affecting Gulf exports.

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Goldman says UAE's exit from OPEC raises medium-term oil supply upside risk

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