Crude Oil Research Report: Crude Oil Prices Hit a Three-Month High—Geopolitical Premium Drives Price Gains

【Answer 1】 1. Evolution of the Middle East geopolitical situation: Tensions between the U.S. and Iran have escalated; conflict between Saudi Arabia and the Houthi movement in Yemen continues, leaving the Middle East’s geopolitical outlook highly uncertain. 2. Navigational access through the Strait of Hormuz remains obstructed: Iranian officials have explicitly stated that the Strait will not be opened without authorization and plan to designate restricted zones there soon, further escalating risks of supply disruption. Chapter I: Review of International Crude Oil Market Trends Markets monitor geopolitical developments; weekly crude oil prices rise This week (September 3–9), international crude oil prices trended upward overall, with the weekly average price rising on a week-on-week basis. Key geopolitical factors influencing prices this week included: — U.S.–Iran tensions: Tensions showed no signs of easing this week, and navigation through the Strait of Hormuz remained blocked. Both sides launched new rounds of military engagements, and Iran reiterated repeatedly that the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, intensifying market anxiety. — Rising uncertainty in the Middle East geopolitical landscape: In addition to U.S.–Iran tensions, Saudi Arabia and Yemen’s Houthi movement engaged in renewed military clashes this week, damaging some energy infrastructure in southern Saudi Arabia. International Crude Oil Spot Prices Rise International crude oil spot prices rose this week; representative trading activities across major markets were as follows: 1. Middle East Crude Oil Market Iraq National Oil Marketing Organization (SOMO): SOMO offered August-loading cargoes of Basrah Medium and Basrah Heavy crude oil to long-term contract customers last month, at discounts of USD 25–29.80 per barrel relative to their Official Selling Prices (OSPs). 2. Asian and African Crude Oil Spot Markets Indian Oil Corporation (IOC): Procured 4 million barrels of West African crude oil via tender, including: — 1 million barrels of Angolan Nemba crude from Chevron Corporation; — 2 million barrels of Nemba crude and Nigerian Okwuibome crude from Glencore International AG; — 1 million barrels of Ghanaian Jubilee crude from Glencore International AG. Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited (BPCL): Procured approximately 2 million barrels of U.S. WTI crude oil for November delivery via tender, at a price premium of about USD 13 per barrel over prompt Brent; sellers included Totsa and Glencore International AG. Chapter II: Key Events in the Crude Oil Market OPEC+ Maintains October Production Policy Unchanged Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman reaffirmed their commitment to market stability. On September 6, 2026, the seven countries held a video conference to jointly assess global market conditions and prospects, deciding to keep October’s daily crude oil production quotas unchanged from September’s levels. Specific quotas are as follows: Saudi Arabia—10.478 million barrels per day; Russia—9.949 million bpd; Iraq—4.431 million bpd; Kuwait—2.676 million bpd; Kazakhstan—1.628 million bpd; Algeria—1.007 million bpd; Oman—0.841 million bpd.

Crude Oil Research Report: Markets Await Geopolitical Developments Amid Sideways Crude Oil Price Movement

【Answer 2】 Markets Monitor Middle East Developments Amid Sideways Crude Oil Price Movement This week (October 22–28), international crude oil prices exhibited volatility overall, with the weekly average price rising on a week-on-week basis. Markets continued tracking geopolitical developments in the Middle East, while disruptions to Libyan crude exports also drew attention to available supply resources. Geopolitical developments and regional shipping concerns: According to public reports, relevant U.S. officials stated that U.S. forces stationed in the Middle East remain at appropriate readiness levels; Iran publicly responded, emphasizing that external military actions would trigger severe chain reactions. Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian noted that, under the impact of recent conflicts, the regional strategic landscape has undergone significant transformation, and management and navigational conditions in the Strait of Hormuz will face renewed scrutiny. Libyan crude export constrained by force majeure: The management of Libya’s National Oil Corporation (NOC) reported that valves along the pipeline connecting the Hamada and Tahara oilfields to the Zawiya port have been shut, causing declines in output and export volumes from both fields. International Crude Oil Spot Prices Rise International crude oil spot prices rose this week; representative trading activities across major markets were as follows: Middle East Crude Oil Spot Market: BPCL management indicated that, amid rising maritime transport costs and narrowing discounts on Russian crude delivered to Asia, Middle Eastern crude has become relatively more economical to procure. Trade sources revealed that IOC procured 3 million barrels of Iraqi crude oil for December delivery at Indian ports via tender, including: — 1 million barrels of Basrah Heavy crude delivered at Mundra port, sold by Trafigura at a discount of approximately USD 7.20 per barrel to the November Dubai benchmark; — 2 million barrels of Basrah Medium crude delivered at Paradip port, sold by Totsa at a discount of approximately USD 2.25 per barrel to the November Dubai benchmark. Asian Crude Oil Spot Market: Due to limited availability of spot crude circulating in the region, spot assessments for December-loading Malaysian Miri and Labuan crudes rose. Additionally, tender documents indicate that Indonesia’s state-owned oil and gas company Pertamina issued a tender seeking crude oil and condensate cargoes for delivery in Q1 2027. These cargoes are intended for its Cilacap and Balikpapan refineries, as well as its Balongan and TPPI Tuban petrochemical complexes. Chapter II: Key Events in the Crude Oil Market OPEC+ Likely to Maintain Production Policy Unchanged in December The seven OPEC+ producing nations (Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan, and Oman) will hold their monthly oil production meeting online on November 1. According to market insiders, participants are expected to maintain December’s daily crude oil production targets unchanged—a stance consistent with the market’s broad expectation that no further production adjustments will occur before year-end. At the time of this online meeting, several Gulf member states are gradually resuming oil export operations previously disrupted by earlier geopolitical conflicts; however, most members’ current actual output remains below their nominal production quota targets.

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