The EU has just formally adopted a regulation comprehensively banning imports of Russian natural gas. Given the multitude of sanctions imposed, how much longer will the war last before Russia is dismembered?

In people’s imagination, opposition is simply binary—positive versus negative—but real-world contradictions are far more multifaceted and complex. —————————————— It’s widely said that Europe’s comprehensive ban on Russian natural gas imports amounts to pulling the ‘oxygen tube’ from Russia. But then the question arises: Why would a patient on the verge of death dare pull their own oxygen tube? Don’t they need to breathe? The answer is simple: This patient has another ‘oxygen tube’—TotalEnergies. This Africa-to-Europe supply route: 1) does not cross the Pacific Ocean; 2) bypasses the Middle East entirely; and is wholly independent of both Russia and the United States. _________ Immediately, some ‘adorable little friends’ ask: Nigeria and Africa are China’s sphere of interest—won’t France and China clash? You’ve hit the crux. Indeed, competition over African interests inevitably generates tensions between China and France. However, when confronted with: 1) the traditional threat posed by Russia, and 2) the desperate last-gasp maneuvers of the West’s incumbent hegemon—the United States—China represents a comparatively far lesser threat. ———————————— What you’ll witness next includes: 1. France taking the lead in making concessions to Chinese new-energy vehicles. 2. Although the U.S. has intervened in Venezuela and seeks to do the same in Iran, the EU—led by France—has refrained from triggering a full-blown crisis. On African issues, the U.S. and Russia may even form an odd alliance to destabilize countries like Nigeria. 3. Even on the Iranian front, France and Germany will actively engage to secure oil development rights. 4. In Syria, the government and Kurdish forces are now clashing over local oil resources. Evidence follows below (source: Zhihu Direct Answer): French Oil & Gas Companies in Africa p.s. French Oil & Gas Companies in Africa France has long dominated the oil and gas sector across Africa, with TotalEnergies and Perenco standing out as the two most influential firms. The former leverages its century-old colonial legacy and deeply entrenched resource networks to control key oil and gas blocks across West and Central Africa; the latter focuses on mature field operations and natural gas development, establishing itself as a major player across Francophone Africa. TotalEnergies: The ‘Invisible Controller’ of Africa’s Energy Landscape As France’s energy giant, TotalEnergies’ African strategy combines deepwater exploration with regional integration. In the Republic of Congo, its operated Moho field produces 100,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day—accounting for over 50% of the country’s total output. In September 2025, the company secured the Nzombo offshore exploration license, planning new well drilling to expand capacity—and rapidly developing resources via existing floating production units (FPUs). In Nigeria, TotalEnergies recently signed production-sharing contracts for PPL 2000 and PPL 2001 blocks, partnering with local firms to develop the Western Delta Basin—a continuation of its six-decade presence in the country.

Rushing toward Final Investment Decision (FID)! The Mozambique Rovuma LNG project secures $1.1 billion in equipment contracts, significantly accelerating progress.

• OneSubsea (UK + Norway) secured the largest contract, responsible for engineering, procurement, and manufacturing of subsea production systems, control systems, and umbilical cables—with Aker Solutions Mozambique providing local support. • Advanced Technology Valve (Italy) is responsible for engineering, procurement, manufacturing, testing, and delivery of large-bore production valves. • Corinth Pipeworks (Greece) handles manufacturing, coating, testing, corrosion protection, and storage of submerged arc-welded subsea pipelines. • Sumitomo Corporation (USA) handles manufacturing, coating, testing, corrosion protection, and storage of seamless pipes. • Zhejiang Julong Special Materials Co., Ltd. (China) is responsible for manufacturing and supply of mechanically lined pipe (MLP), induction bends, cladding products, and associated piping systems. Notably, just days earlier—on August 6–7—the Area 4 partners issued a Letter of Intent (LOI) for midstream and downstream engineering and procurement to the SMDC consortium (led by Saipem, with McDermott, South Korea’s Daewoo Engineering & Construction, and China Petroleum Engineering & Construction Corporation—CPECC), valued at approximately $32 million. These two contracts—covering upstream equipment procurement and midstream/downstream engineering—form a dual-track advancement strategy propelling the Rovuma LNG Phase I project toward FID. Business Opportunities and Procurement Needs From force majeure suspension in 2021 to resolution by end-2025, and then to intensive contracting in August 2026, Rovuma LNG’s timeline is clear: first finalizing FEED (completed by the SMDC consortium in August 2024); then issuing the midstream/downstream LOI (early August 2026); followed immediately by awarding upstream equipment contracts (August 17). This is the classic pathway for mega-LNG projects to lock in supply chains ahead of FID—issuing long-lead equipment procurement contracts early to secure manufacturing capacity, enabling direct transition into execution upon FID approval. For suppliers, pre-FID investment contracts represent both commercial opportunity and a critical entry ticket. Once FID is approved, subsequent EPC contracts will convert directly into formal manufacturing orders—orders substantially larger than those awarded in this round. The Rovuma LNG Phase I project carries a total investment of approximately $30–32 billion. The current $1.1 billion covers only the initial pre-investment for upstream long-lead equipment. Subsequent procurement releases will include: • Manufacturing contracts for 12 modular liquefaction units (main EPC already awarded to the SMDC consortium, to be formalized post-FID); • Additional batches of subsea production systems, Christmas trees, and manifolds; • FPSO/floating facilities (if required later in the project); • Further subsea pipeline and umbilical cable orders; • Onshore LNG plant auxiliary process equipment, electrical equipment, and instrumentation & control (I&C) systems; • Modular construction and transportation services. Chinese Supply Chain Entry Point: Zhejiang Julong’s inclusion in this round for mechanically lined pipe supply demonstrates that Chinese specialty pipe manufacturers have now qualified to enter the upstream equipment supply chain of Africa’s mega-LNG projects. Following FID, large-scale procurement will unleash significantly larger orders—including steel, pipe fittings, valves, electrical equipment, and I&C systems—where Chinese suppliers can leverage cost advantages and reliable delivery timelines to capture market share.

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Nigeria's NNPC confirmed a final investment decision on an $800 million offshore gas project by Amni International and TotalEnergies, which will supply Nigeria LNG's Train 7 expansion and boost annual production capacity to 30 million tonnes.

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