What is Bank of America's Francisco Blanch's best-case scenario for Brent crude oil prices for the rest of the year, and what condition must be met for that scenario to hold?

Bank of America’s Francisco Blanch said his best-case oil-price scenario is Brent averaging $90 for the rest of the year, and this outcome depends on the end of the US and Iranian blockade of the Strait of Hormuz that is currently bottling up shipments from the Persian Gulf.

According to Blanch, what is the current global oil supply deficit, and why does it prevent prices from falling to $60–$70 per barrel?

Blanch stated that the market is running '14 million, 15 million barrels a day short, 14% to 15% short, of what we need to see for prices to stabilize, go down to $60 or $70 a barrel,' meaning the current supply deficit is so large that prices cannot decline without a significant increase in available supply.

BofA’s Blanch Says $90 Brent Is Oil Market’s Best-Case Scenario

May 18, 2026

Bank of America analyst Francisco Blanch forecasts Brent crude averaging $90 this year due to tight global supplies and Iran-related geopolitical risks. He warns that continued blockades in the Strait of Hormuz could drive prices to $120-$130 by mid-year.

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