With 96% of its oil imports choked off, how long can Japan’s oil reserves last?

According to NetEase News on May 17, prior to the outbreak of hostilities in the Middle East, Japan imported approximately 2.4 million barrels of crude oil per day—equivalent to about 381.57 million liters, enough to fill 240–250 Olympic-sized swimming pools. Roughly 94% of this oil came from the Middle East, including major producers such as the UAE. This crude is refined at Japan’s 19 refineries into gasoline, heavy fuel oil, kerosene, and other fuels. This oil crisis—triggered by Middle Eastern hostilities—has been dubbed Japan’s "Reiwa-era oil crisis" by domestic media. Objectively, the crisis has permeated every facet of Japanese society: roughly half of all gas stations have lost their suppliers; regular gasoline prices surged by 50 yen per liter within a week; transport companies’ fuel costs are nearing breaking point; even the familiar colorful packaging of potato chips has been switched to black-and-white—to save petroleum-based printing ink. Even after the government released two rounds of strategic petroleum reserves totaling the equivalent of 70 days’ domestic consumption, the shortfall caused by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz remains unfilled. Japan’s three largest shipping companies—Nippon Yusen (NYK), Mitsui O.S.K. Lines (MOL), and Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha (K Line)—have immediately suspended all navigation through the Strait of Hormuz. NYK has instructed its vessels to avoid waters near the Strait; MOL Ocean Development Co., Ltd. has directed ships to remain on standby in safe waters; and K Line has confirmed it has ordered all vessels operating in the Persian Gulf region to stand by. To curb domestic fuel prices, Japanese authorities urgently tapped into petroleum reserves: the first release occurred on March 16, amounting to approximately 80 million barrels—equivalent to 45 days of domestic consumption. The second release took place on May 1, totaling roughly 36–36.48 million barrels—equivalent to 20 days of domestic consumption. Simultaneously, the government introduced gasoline price subsidies, barely managing to cap regular gasoline prices at around 170 yen per liter. In March this year, Japan’s combined national and private petroleum reserves—calculated against prevailing consumption levels—were sufficient to sustain the country for approximately 254 days. However, this figure reflects official statistics; actual petroleum consumption exceeds the officially reported numbers. Real crude oil consumption stands at 3.2 million barrels per day; based on this figure, reserves would last only about 146 days. If we further deduct essential refinery operating inventories (approximately 45 days) and the 80 million barrels already released from reserves, the number of truly usable days may fall short of 100.

Cutting off supplies to Europe! Saudi crude oil redirected to Asia—oil tankers earning ¥8 million per day

Yet insiders report that no such deliveries will occur next month—a decision applying to all European buyers. Saudi Aramco declined to comment on the matter. With Saudi crude supply absent, European buyers have been forced to seek costlier alternative sources. According to Italian news reports dated September 19, the Italian government plans to dispatch up to four naval vessels to the Bab el-Mandeb Strait to safeguard maritime passage. After pipeline damage halted oil exports to Europe, Saudi Aramco pivoted its sales strategy—shifting its flagship products—Arabian Light, Arabian Medium, and Arabian Heavy crude oils—to Asian markets, exporting them via the Strait of Hormuz. Sources indicate that Saudi Aramco has already sold approximately 60 million barrels of crude oil, scheduled for loading this month and next via ship-to-ship transfers at Sohar Port in Oman. Chinese and South Korean refiners are the primary buyers of these spot cargoes, with additional volumes destined for India and Japan. Satellite data shows that over the past six days, Saudi Arabia’s average daily oil throughput via the Strait of Hormuz stood at 2.9 million barrels—far exceeding the August average of 700,000 barrels per day. Ship-to-ship crude transfers conducted in the Gulf of Oman constitute a critical mechanism enabling Saudi Arabia to maintain exports: smaller vessels carry crude through the Strait of Hormuz, then transfer cargo to large tankers anchored outside the Strait—thereby avoiding the risk of attacks on large tankers entering the Persian Gulf. According to CNBC’s reporting citing vessel-tracking data, such transfer volumes have surged from 1.5 million barrels per day in August to 2.7 million barrels per day. The increased export volume from the Gulf region is a significant boon for Asian buyers—with Japan among the most affected countries. On September 17, the Japan Petroleum Association stated that domestic refiners have secured sufficient crude supplies through the end of November, crediting ship-to-ship transfers conducted outside the Strait of Hormuz. Shunichi Kito, President of the Japan Petroleum Association, noted that in certain cases, Saudi Arabia assumes the risk of transporting crude across the Strait of Hormuz before transferring it to Japanese-bound vessels outside the Gulf. Thus, crude oil supplies from Saudi Arabia have not been fully severed.

Japan Petroleum Association: Japanese Refiners' Crude Oil Inventories Sufficient Until November

1 day ago

The Japan Petroleum Association confirms crude oil inventories suffice until November despite Middle East supply risks. However, rising logistics costs and naphtha dependency challenge the chemical sector as Japan seeks to reduce regional reliance.

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2026-09-28

Japan Petroleum Association: Japanese Refiners' Crude Oil Inventories Sufficient Until November

Japan Petroleum Association: Japanese Refiners' Crude Oil Inventories Sufficient Until November

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