The U.S. may lose 16 million tons of soybean orders; South American soybean vessels keep sailing to China. Since farmers are a key voting bloc for Trump, how might this affect U.S. politics?

U.S. soybeans have achieved a record harvest of 4.5 billion bushels—yet oversupply has driven prices down to $9.50 per bushel, far below the $11–$12 cost-of-production threshold. The USDA forecasts a 20% drop in farm income for 2025. When Trump first took office in 2018, he stabilized farmers with $12 billion in aid—but that money was effectively extracted from U.S. consumers via tariffs: in 2019, each American household paid an average of $1,277 more annually due to tariffs. This year, the same logic applies: tariff revenue collected from U.S. consumers is being redirected to farmers. Yet most farmers possess pride and independence—they don’t want handouts, believing they should be able to thrive on their own. Their growing resentment is palpable. Trump consistently touts tariffs as an achievement, but soybean farmers—and the broader public—may not see it that way. According to a October 2020 study by the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), during the U.S.-China tariff war from 2018 to 2020, $6.6 billion in tariff revenue was generated—92% of which went toward compensating farmers’ losses! Yet using tariff revenue to offset agricultural losses is essentially robbing Peter to pay Paul: it neither resolves the fundamental issue of the U.S. trade deficit nor alleviates the burden borne by American consumers. Trump’s political opponents will inevitably seize upon this data to attack him—arguing that the so-called tariff war merely forces Americans to foot the bill while handing over U.S. agriculture’s international markets to South America!

U.S. agriculture is experiencing a record harvest—but cannot sell its produce. Lawmakers warn that decades of market development are being lost. Is the U.S. losing only the soybean market?

In previous years, over half of U.S. soybean exports went to China—but since May this year, China has purchased zero U.S. soybeans. According to Britain’s *The Economist*, which reviewed official U.S. records dating back to 1998, this marks the first time in nearly 30 years that China has bought no U.S. soybeans. A report by the U.S. Soybean Export Council shows that, in the seven years before 2018, an average of 28% of all U.S.-grown soybeans were exported to China—accounting for 60% of total U.S. soybean exports during that period. In the 2023–2024 marketing year (September 1, 2023 to August 31, 2024), the U.S. exported nearly 25 million tons of soybeans to China—far exceeding its 4.9 million tons shipped to the EU, its second-largest market. While the White House wages its tariff war at the expense of farmers, other agricultural exporters are seizing the opportunity to capture U.S. market share. In July 2025, Brazil introduced a policy establishing a dedicated soybean supply chain, encouraging farmers to boost exports to China through customized varieties and streamlined processes. On September 22, Argentina announced the elimination of export taxes on soybeans, soybean meal, and other agricultural products. According to a September 30 report by Hong Kong’s *South China Morning Post*, Argentina’s soybean export orders surged to a seven-year high in September—driven by Chinese importers purchasing millions of tons during Argentina’s temporary suspension of export duties. Over half of China’s recent demand now originates from South America. Previously, export taxes on soybeans, soybean oil, and soybean meal stood as high as 26% and 24.5%, respectively; now they are zero—leading to $7 billion in sales within just two days of the announcement. Meanwhile, according to a report cited by *Reference News* on October 3, China and Brazil will jointly establish an investment fund for the first time. As reported by Bloomberg on October 2, a joint statement revealed that Brazil’s National Bank for Economic and Social Development (BNDES) and China’s Export-Import Bank have agreed to co-establish a fund targeting investments in energy transition, infrastructure, mining, agriculture, and artificial intelligence. Per the statement, the new fund will invest in Brazilian bonds and equity. BNDES and China’s Export-Import Bank have already signed documents formalizing cooperation on the fund. The White House issued two 'empty promises' U.S. farmers: We want markets—not subsidies Politico notes that U.S. soybean farmers are bearing especially heavy costs from China’s latest 'purchase halt', as they have yet to fully recover from the damage inflicted on their access to the Chinese market during Trump’s first term. At that time, China accounted for roughly 60% of U.S. soybean exports. The report adds that the U.S. Midwest—home to major soybean-producing states including Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, and Indiana—is a crucial Republican political stronghold ahead of next year’s congressional midterm elections. Politico observes that China’s strategy appears to be working: agricultural lobbying groups, once staunch Trump supporters, are now voicing complaints to the White House, blaming its tariff policies as the 'root cause' behind China’s rejection of U.S. agricultural products—and farmer protests are mounting across the country. To placate them, the White House pledged two things: first, to compel other countries to purchase U.S. agricultural products as a mandatory clause in trade agreements; second, to provide direct subsidies to domestic farmers. Yet, as Politico’s analysis reveals, neither promise has been fulfilled. Take the U.S.-Japan trade agreement as an example: the U.S. demanded Japan purchase $8 billion worth of U.S. agricultural products annually—but according to data compiled by the U.S. Department of Agriculture, that figure falls short of Japan’s average annual purchases of $14.3 billion worth of U.S. agricultural goods between 2020 and 2024.

Farmers Fund Attack Ads Against Republicans Over Agri-Policy Issues

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The American Meat Producers Association spent $3 million on attack ads against Republicans, citing animal welfare laws, tariffs, and rising fuel and fertilizer costs. This spending underscores shifting alliances between farmers and the GOP ahead of US midterms.

reuters

2026-10-29

Farmers Fund Attack Ads Against Republicans Over Agri-Policy Issues

Farmers Fund Attack Ads Against Republicans Over Agri-Policy Issues

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