Trump announced 'devastating economic actions' against Iran; Iran’s control over the Strait of Hormuz is weakening.

Trump also threatened that any country permitting its financial institutions, businesses, airports, or government entities to provide any form of support to Iran would face severe economic consequences. He called on all U.S. allies to join America in isolating and defeating Iran’s threats. He listed several activities that must cease immediately: 'oil smuggling, barter channels, cash transfers, foreign exchange bureaus, ship registration, and shell companies.' The public announcement of 'devastating economic actions' against Iran—and the warning that any nation supporting Tehran or providing 'any form of assistance' to Iran would face economic repercussions—stands in stark contrast to Trump’s repeated claims over the past several weeks that negotiations were progressing smoothly and a new agreement was imminent. According to CNN, citing U.S. officials, Trump has instructed his negotiating team—including Vice President Vance, Special Envoy Witzke, and Kushner—to suspend contact with Tehran. The White House has also signaled to political allies that the U.S. strategy toward Iran is shifting—from 'striking Iran as quickly as possible' to 'slowly strangling them.' Second, U.S. officials: A new round of sanctions against Iran may be unveiled this week. U.S. officials said that although there had been some 'positive discussions' before contact was suspended, Trump remained dissatisfied with Iran’s persistent refusal to accept Washington’s terms. They indicated he intends to resume talks only after Iran’s leadership demonstrates new willingness to compromise. Officials added that the U.S. expects to impose a new round of harsh sanctions as early as this week; senior military officials—including Secretary of War Hegseth—have stated that U.S. forces stationed in the Middle East are prepared for long-term enforcement of the blockade on Iranian ports. Last week, U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent warned that 'unprecedented' economic isolation measures against Iran would be announced within the coming week, coordinated with the blockade in the Strait of Hormuz, to 'prevent any goods from entering or leaving Iranian ports.' This latest messaging from U.S. officials signals broad internal support and active alignment behind Trump’s strategic pivot—from aggressively pursuing a swift deal to suspending engagement and applying sustained pressure via long-term blockade and sanctions. Iran, meanwhile, continues to signal openness to dialogue. Mohammad Mokhber, advisor to Iran’s Supreme Leader, stated that Iran 'does not conflate negotiations with surrender,' and that military pressure and sanctions cannot force Tehran to capitulate. Three Iranian officials revealed that Iran’s leadership fears further economic sanctions could worsen living conditions, potentially reigniting social unrest and undermining governmental legitimacy. As mutual inflexibility persists, Oman’s mediation has added further complexity. Oman is currently engaging Iran directly—bypassing Washington—to discuss restoring freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz and future management arrangements. Reportedly, Trump is deeply displeased with these talks, fearing such an agreement would entrench Iran’s influence over the Strait and opposing any scheme to tax or charge tolls on passing commercial vessels. Third, multiple sources indicate Iran’s control over the Strait of Hormuz is weakening. With the Middle East’s geopolitical deadlock continuing, the latest shipping data shows Iran’s de facto control over the Strait of Hormuz has markedly weakened compared to one month ago. According to Kpler, a maritime analytics firm, over the past two weeks more than 80% of vessels transiting the Strait have opted to use the channel closer to the Omani side.

The U.S. and Iran reached a framework memorandum for a 60-day ceasefire; unrestricted navigation through the Strait of Hormuz has resumed; oil prices plunged and gold rose—what information deserves attention?

During the 60-day negotiation period, the U.S. and Iran will discuss possible sanctions relief and the unfreezing of Iranian funds—actual implementation contingent upon Iran’s compliance. U.S. troops will remain stationed in the Gulf region throughout the negotiation period. The war between Israel and Hezbollah has ended. Then come Iran’s conditions—as reported by The New York Times and Al Jazeera: — The U.S. and Israel halt hostilities on all fronts, including Lebanon. — Iran reopens the Strait of Hormuz. — The U.S. lifts its naval blockade against Iran. — Unrestricted commercial exchanges with Iran are permitted. — The U.S. unfreezes previously seized Iranian assets. — Iran pledges not to develop nuclear weapons. — The U.S. and Iran will hold nuclear-related negotiations within 30–60 days. — U.S. forces withdraw from the Gulf region. Shared points of agreement, as presented by both sides: — Both the U.S. and Iran agree that Israel must cease military operations on the Lebanese front. — Iran agrees to lift its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz (though wording differs), while the U.S. agrees to lift its blockade of Iranian ports. — The U.S. permits (temporarily) Iranian oil exports. — Both sides agree to defer nuclear issues—including uranium enrichment—to negotiations scheduled over the next ~60 days. Points of divergence, as presented by each side: — Unfreezing of seized Iranian funds: The U.S. proposes gradual unfreezing over the subsequent 60-day negotiation period, conditional upon progress in talks; Iran states the U.S. has agreed to unfreeze the funds outright, without stipulating preconditions. — Continued U.S. troop presence in the Gulf: The U.S. maintains that its forces will remain stationed in the region during negotiations; Iran claims the agreement calls for full withdrawal of U.S. forces from the Gulf. — Opening of the Strait of Hormuz: The U.S. declares that Iran will 'reopen' the Strait; Iranian media reports state that Iran merely agreed to restore the number of transit vessels to pre-war levels—not necessarily reinstating 'freedom of navigation' as it existed before the conflict.

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In a blog post for Chemicals & The Economy, Paul Hodges notes that hopes for an early reopening of the Strait of Hormuz are fading amid ongoing talks.

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Hopes Fade for Early Return to Free Passage in Strait of Hormuz

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