The Iran conflict is reshaping the Middle East.

The UAE claims it successfully intercepted 93% of incoming projectiles. Other Gulf states, however, have not released detailed figures. Arab and Western officials say these countries are currently coping reasonably well. Interception stockpiles are highly classified intelligence—but two regional military intelligence sources indicate that their defensive firepower could sustain operations for several weeks against Iran’s current rate of fire. Even so, the war’s costs are mounting rapidly. At least seven people have been killed and dozens injured in Iran’s retaliatory strikes. Several of the world’s busiest aviation hubs—watching thousands of flights canceled—stand by helplessly. Iran has declared the Strait of Hormuz ‘closed’ to shipping; its attacks on oil, gas infrastructure, and tankers have thrown energy markets into chaos. Merely the cost of air-defense interceptions has already reached several billion dollars. Perhaps the most severe—and hardest to quantify—damage lies elsewhere. For years, Gulf states have cultivated reputations for security and stability to attract global elites to settle there. The UAE, in particular, has successfully drawn diverse visitors—from Arabs fleeing regional conflicts to Europeans escaping high taxes and strict pandemic controls. When Putin invaded Ukraine, both Russians and Ukrainians flocked to Dubai as a refuge. Bad news elsewhere has often been good news for the Gulf. Now, bad news has arrived at their doorstep. Many Gulf residents are deeply anxious. Some are spending thousands of dollars on last-minute rides to Riyadh or Muscat in search of airports still operating. In a region extremely inhospitable to human life—where air conditioning is essential year-round and natural freshwater resources are scarce—the prospect of widespread Iranian airstrikes is profoundly alarming: a successful strike on even a few power plants or desalination facilities could be catastrophic. Iran’s regime hopes such fear will pressure Gulf monarchs to urge Trump to cease hostilities. After all, they spent two full months trying to dissuade Trump from launching war in the first place. Yet, so far, these countries’ resolve has proven sturdier than Iran anticipated. Saudi Arabia is furious over attacks on its refineries and the U.S. embassy compound in Riyadh’s diplomatic quarter—and is openly debating whether to join the war with missile and drone strikes against Iran. The UAE is holding similar discussions. Even Qatar—which shares a massive natural gas field with Iran and has long sought friendly ties with Tehran—has recently adopted unusually sharp rhetoric. Rather than urging Trump to end the war, Gulf monarchs are now privately advising him to continue fighting—because the alternative is worse. If the U.S. halts operations now, Gulf states would find themselves sharing a border with a wounded, embittered Iran. They also warn that Iran would draw a deeply unsettling lesson: that attacking GCC states effectively alters U.S. behavior. In any future conflict, Tehran would undoubtedly strike its neighbors harder and faster. As always, it remains unclear whether Trump will heed this counsel. He says he wants to “bring freedom to the Iranian people,” then declares he’ll negotiate a deal with the Iranian regime. This war may last two or three days—or four or five weeks. He has publicly voiced all these positions—even offering contradictory statements on the same day.

Trump’s TACO Again: From Hard-Hitting to Holding Back—Four Truths About the U.S.-Iran Conflict.

The F-35 is the U.S. military’s most advanced fighter jet, costing nearly $100 million per unit. Once the impression that 'six F-35s were destroyed' takes root in the public mind, Trump will face immense political pressure over the war’s soaring costs. Iran is waging an information-warfare campaign built on 'asymmetric information'—where truth and falsehood matter less than its success in manufacturing uncertainty. Truth Three: The conflict is 'spreading outward'—burning simultaneously across three fronts. U.S.-Iran hostilities have expanded beyond the Persian Gulf to engulf the entire Middle East, escalating concurrently along three axes. First layer: Direct attacks on U.S. bases. On July 17, Iranian missiles breached U.S. air defenses and struck the Muwaffaq Salih Air Base in Jordan, killing three U.S. troops and wounding four. On July 30 and August 1, Iran twice announced the destruction of F-35s at Jordan’s Azraq Air Base. On July 31, Iran launched drone attacks against Kuwait’s Jaber Air Base. U.S. bases in Jordan and Kuwait are shifting from 'rear-area support nodes' to 'frontline targets.' Second layer: The 'Axis of Resistance' launches full-scale operations. Iran’s proxy network has activated across the board. In Iraq, on July 29, U.S. and Saudi forces jointly conducted airstrikes against the Iran-backed Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), striking targets across seven provinces—killing at least 20 and wounding 32. In Lebanon, clashes between Israel and Hezbollah persist: the IDF has destroyed Hezbollah’s underground tunnels, while Hezbollah drones have precisely targeted Israeli military convoys. Israel explicitly stated that any U.S.-Iran ceasefire 'does not apply to Lebanon.' In the Red Sea, the Houthi movement has blockaded the Bab al-Mandeb Strait. On August 1, Saudi Arabia spearheaded the formation of a 14-nation maritime defense coalition to respond—issuing invitations to over 50 countries and ultimately securing joint declarations from 14. Hezbollah, the Houthis, and Iraqi militias are acting in concert, stretching battle lines and muddying the waters—forcing the U.S. to fight on multiple fronts simultaneously. Third layer: Spillover into new countries. On July 29, a U.S.-owned liquefied natural gas vessel caught fire after a drone attack at Egypt’s Damietta Port—the first time Egypt has been drawn into the conflict. The attack occurred less than 100 kilometers from the northern entrance to the Suez Canal—the 'last safe shipping lane' for Saudi crude exports. Fire has now reached countries previously uninvolved in the conflict. Three fronts, three layers of pressure: U.S. bases under direct assault, proxy frontlines expanding, and neutral nations drawn in. None show signs of cooling down. Truth Four: Allies are also 'mediating'—Saudi Crown Prince personally hits the brakes. On August 1, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman personally called Trump to express concern over Washington’s plans for large-scale strikes against Iran—and urged the U.S. not to proceed. Qatar, the UAE, Turkey, Pakistan, and others likewise issued calls for de-escalation. Saudi Arabia had just joined U.S. airstrikes targeting Iran-backed militias inside Iraq—yet now pivots to urging Washington against escalation. This seemingly contradictory posture—'cooperating while applying the brakes'—reveals Gulf states’ deep-seated anxiety: they seek to contain Iran, yet dread being consumed by the flames. A Strategic Dead End Trump now faces a three-way impasse: fight, but cannot win; negotiate, but cannot reach agreement; withdraw, but cannot afford to. 'The hard-hitting approach was scrapped—not out of peace-mindedness, but because the cost of continuing the war has already exceeded its benefits.' Only 29% of Americans approve of Trump’s handling of the conflict; allies are urging him to stand down; ammunition stocks are running low; and Iran continues detonating its 'F-35 destroyed' propaganda bombs.

Gulf States Urge Trump to Avoid Escalation With Iran

15 hours ago

Gulf Arab states urge President Trump to de-escalate tensions with Iran to protect energy supplies and economies. Conflict disruption has raised Brent crude prices by 63%, impacting GCC growth and global inflation.

bloomberg

2026-09-22

Gulf States Urge Trump to Avoid Escalation With Iran

Gulf States Urge Trump to Avoid Escalation With Iran

FAQ