Will Europe face a natural gas supply crisis during the 2024–2025 winter?

On Sunday, November 17, 2024, a strong cold front officially ushered Beijing into the 2024–2025 winter. Winter is the peak season for natural gas consumption worldwide, as natural gas serves as the primary heating fuel for many countries. Prior to the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war, Russia was the EU’s largest natural gas supplier. Unlike oil and coal, Russian natural gas remains one of the EU’s key supply sources today, despite extensive international efforts to diversify away from it. Just as the 2024–2025 winter began, Russia halted natural gas deliveries to Austria amid a commercial dispute, triggering a sharp surge in European natural gas prices. Industry analysts and media widely agree that if weather conditions remain unusually severe this winter, European countries could well face a natural gas supply crisis. European natural gas prices rose to their highest level since November 2023. According to reports from the website 'Oil Price' and other news agencies, between November 14 and 18, 2024, European natural gas prices surged to their highest level since November 2023. On Thursday, November 14, 2024, the European benchmark natural gas price spiked to its highest level since November 2023, driven by warnings from Austrian oil and gas company OMV that Russian pipeline gas supplies might be suspended—and by heightened demand for heating and electricity due to cold weather. The Dutch TTF natural gas futures contract—the benchmark for European gas trading—rose 5% earlier that day in Amsterdam. By 1:50 p.m. local time, prices had partially retreated but still closed up 4% on the day at $47.83 per MWh (€45.40). Late on November 13, OMV announced it had received an arbitration award under the rules of the International Chamber of Commerce (ICC) concerning abnormal German gas deliveries supplied by Gazprom Export, which ended in September 2022. OMV was awarded $242 million (€230 million), plus interest and costs, and stated it would 'take the necessary next steps to enforce the arbitration award immediately.' Based on the arbitration ruling, OMV warned that 'the contractual relationship under the Austrian supply agreement between OMV Gas Marketing & Trading GmbH (OGMT) and Gazprom Export may deteriorate, including potentially…'

The International Energy Agency (IEA) says global natural gas demand growth may slow significantly—what impact will this have on related markets?

In terms of individual market scale, the United States and Russia achieved substantial growth in the first half of this year, together accounting for nearly 70% of the global net increase in LNG supply. U.S. LNG supply surged sharply in Q1, primarily due to the restart of operations at the Freeport LNG plant; however, in Q2, U.S. LNG supply declined nearly 3% year-on-year, as operational issues continued to plague the Freeport LNG plant—beyond scheduled maintenance. U.S. LNG exports fell 16% in May but rebounded in June. Despite these setbacks, U.S. LNG supply for the first half of the year rose 4% year-on-year (by 2.4 billion cubic meters). In the first half of this year, Russian LNG exports grew 9% year-on-year (by 2.0 billion cubic meters). Although smaller projects also contributed to export growth, the country’s largest LNG project—the Yamal LNG project—remained the primary driver. Middle Eastern LNG supply rose 1.8% (by 1.2 billion cubic meters) in the first half of the year, mainly supported by increased exports from the UAE, a regional LNG producer. With new liquefaction capacity coming online, the IEA expects year-on-year LNG supply growth to accelerate in the second half of this year. Most of the new export capacity will come from the U.S., driven by expansions of existing plants and commissioning of new ones—including the Freeport LNG expansion, increased output from the Plaquemines LNG Phase I project in summer, and the anticipated start-up of the Corpus Christi LNG Phase III project by year-end. The Tortue FLNG facility off West Africa’s coast is scheduled to begin operations in Q4. Tighter market balance in Q2 pushes natural gas prices higher The report notes that natural gas prices across all major markets rose quarter-on-quarter in Q2. Tighter supply-demand fundamentals and geopolitical uncertainty exerted upward pressure on spot prices. Reduced LNG supply—combined with robust demand growth in Asia—tightened the global natural gas market balance, while renewed uncertainty over Russian pipeline gas deliveries to Europe added further strain. In Europe, the average TTF natural gas spot price rose 15% quarter-on-quarter in Q2 to $10/MMBtu (million British thermal units), more than double the average Q2 price between 2016 and 2020. Falling LNG inflows (down nearly 20% year-on-year), unexpected disruptions in Norwegian gas supply, and renewed uncertainty over Russian pipeline gas deliveries all contributed to upward price pressure. On May 20, Austrian oil and gas company OMV announced…

OMV expects higher energy prices to offset conflict impact

Jul 8, 2026

OMV anticipates higher energy prices will offset sales volume declines from Middle East conflicts, noting Q2 natural gas prices rose 21.5% and crude hit $97.80 per barrel. Improved production mixes are expected to counter costs despite new government margin caps.

reuters

2025-10-29

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OMV expects higher energy prices to offset conflict impact

OMV expects higher energy prices to offset conflict impact

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