The direction of energy diversification, clean energy transition, and low-carbon development remains unchanged in 2026.

From the perspective of global politics, in 2026, great-power rivalry, regional conflicts, and political polarization will coexist. Among these, intensifying great-power competition and worsening political polarization will exacerbate domestic political instability across countries, heightening geopolitical risks. Regional situations will remain unstable: the European geopolitical conflict is likely to persist at a low intensity or in a state of 'ceasefire without peace'; the Middle East conflict may flare up repeatedly—and even escalate temporarily and spill over—but its overall trajectory will remain manageable; uncertainty in the Caribbean region will increase, warranting close monitoring of maritime security risks triggered by potential hot wars. Impacted by U.S. tariff policies, global economic and trade growth will further slow in 2026. According to the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) October 2025 World Economic Outlook report, global GDP growth in 2026 is projected at 3.1%, down 0.1 percentage point from 2025—1.6% for advanced economies and 4% for emerging markets and developing economies. The World Trade Organization’s (WTO) October 2025 Global Trade Outlook report forecasts that global trade growth in 2026 will sharply decelerate to just 0.5%. The global trade landscape will accelerate toward regionalization and diversification: trade among regions outside the United States will continue expanding, with South–South trade becoming a key driver. Enterprises are steadily advancing the 'China + N' strategy—using China as a core production base while establishing supply chain footprints across multiple countries or regions—and developing countries, epitomized by the 'Global South,' are demonstrating heightened autonomy, refusing to take sides; this will open new opportunities for international cooperation. From the perspective of the global energy industry, the overarching trend of energy transition remains unchanged, though market pressures will intensify. In the short term, U.S. policy shifts and bottlenecks in integrating wind and solar power generation will constrain the pace of transition. In the long term, however, rapid technological advances in wind, solar, energy storage, hydrogen, and new-energy vehicles—as well as AI-driven efficiency gains and even disruptive innovation—will make the global shift toward diversified, clean, and low-carbon energy systems irreversible.

The core driver of global economic growth

The core drivers of global economic growth in the near term (2025–2026) can be summarized as four pillars: emerging markets (especially China and India), investment in AI and green technologies, supply-chain restructuring, and fiscal and consumption resilience—forming an overall pattern of 'Asia-led growth, technology-enabled advancement, and structural hedging.' I. Emerging Markets (Primary Engine) - China: The IMF projects GDP growth of 5.2% in 2026, contributing 26.6% of global growth—making it the single largest engine. Key drivers include manufacturing upgrading (e.g., new-energy vehicles and photovoltaics), domestic demand recovery, and green investment. - India: Growth is expected at approximately 6.2%, contributing 17%; driven by demographic dividends, infrastructure development, and consumption upgrades. - ASEAN/Southeast Asia: Growth is projected at around 4.7%, benefiting from supply-chain relocation, electronics manufacturing, and regional integration (e.g., RCEP). - Together, China and India will contribute over 43% of global growth, while Asia as a whole accounts for roughly 60%. II. Technological Revolution: AI and Green Transition (New Growth Momentum) - Artificial Intelligence: Expected to lift global GDP growth by approximately 0.5 percentage points annually between 2025 and 2030; U.S. AI investment exceeds USD 600 billion per year, and enterprise-level digital and intelligent transformation is delivering significant productivity gains. - Green Energy: Declining costs for photovoltaic (PV), wind, and energy storage technologies; Chinese PV exports surged 35% year-on-year in Q1 2026; Europe’s energy transition and accelerating global electric vehicle adoption are also key catalysts.

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