What is Citigroup's revised timeline for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, and how does it differ from its previous forecast?

Citigroup has pushed back its expectation for the U.S. Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by one month, now forecasting cuts in October and December 2026, followed by one in January 2027 — a shift from its earlier projection of cuts in September, October, and December 2026.

Why did Citigroup revise its rate-cut outlook, and what key factors influenced this change?

Citigroup revised its outlook citing a more hawkish turn from Fed officials, mounting inflation concerns, and the fact that nearly half of policymakers now expect rates to rise this year; although oil prices have fallen sharply after the U.S.–Iran agreement to restore flows through the Strait of Hormuz, uncertainty remains over the deal, and the earlier Iran war had pushed up fuel prices and raised risks of inflation exceeding the Fed’s 2% target.

Citigroup Pushes Back Fed Rate-Cut Timeline Amid Rising Hawkishness

Jun 17, 2026

Citigroup revised its U.S. interest rate cut forecast to late 2026, citing hawkish Fed policy and oil price volatility affecting inflation.

reuters

2026-06-17

Citigroup Pushes Back Fed Rate-Cut Timeline Amid Rising Hawkishness

Citigroup Pushes Back Fed Rate-Cut Timeline Amid Rising Hawkishness

FAQ