What oil price does Citi forecast if the Strait of Hormuz disruption lasts another month, and what inventory loss does it associate with that scenario?

Citi forecasts oil prices could rise to $110 per barrel if traffic in the Strait of Hormuz remains disrupted for another month, and associates that scenario with global crude and product inventory losses rising to an estimated 1.3 billion barrels.

According to Citi, what is the projected total decline in global crude and product inventories if a ceasefire extension is signed this week and shipping gradually resumes through May?

If a ceasefire extension is signed this week and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz — along with production — gradually resumes through May, Citi expects total global crude and product inventories to decline by roughly 900 million barrels: 500 million barrels already lost and another 400 million barrels of anticipated losses due to ramp-up delays and conflict-related damages.

Citi Forecasts Oil at $110 if Hormuz Disruption Lasts Another Month

Apr 20, 2026

Citigroup predicts oil prices could reach $110 per barrel if Strait of Hormuz disruptions continue, citing potential global inventory losses of 1.3 billion barrels. Even with a ceasefire, inventories are expected to hit eight-year lows by June.

bloomberg

2026-04-20

Citi Forecasts Oil at $110 if Hormuz Disruption Lasts Another Month

Citi Forecasts Oil at $110 if Hormuz Disruption Lasts Another Month

FAQ