Is the new energy sector about to undergo a major shift?

I. Germany Abandons Its 'Carbon Neutrality by 2035' Goal Germany’s move is not necessarily a slowdown in new energy development, but rather a reluctant response to circumstances. As is widely known, the Russia-Ukraine conflict erupted in February this year. Ukraine is backed by the United States and a host of developed European countries—Germany included. Russia, meanwhile, stands alone. To curb Russia as much as possible, Western countries have imposed numerous sanctions—spanning politics, economics, arts, and even wildlife ownership—pulling out all the stops. Yet the 'Polar Bear' is no pushover. Though powerless against the U.S. across the Atlantic, Russia holds considerable leverage over its neighboring European nations. Cutting off oil and gas supplies is one of its most potent weapons. Recall that Russia has long been Europe’s most critical energy supplier—so vital, it’s been dubbed Europe’s 'milk mother.' As the world’s second-largest crude oil exporter and fourth-largest natural gas exporter, Russia supplied 53% of Europe’s crude oil and 83% of its natural gas in 2021. Last month, however, Russia slashed gas deliveries via Nord Stream 1—the key pipeline supplying Europe—by 60%. Energy is the 'lifeblood of industry.' Now that Europe’s industrial lifeblood is being choked off, can European countries remain calm? But Europe initiated the confrontation, and with the U.S. watching closely, capitulation to Russia is politically unthinkable. Thus, Europe must seek alternative 'milk sources.' Where else might abundant 'milk' be found? New energy remains too underdeveloped for immediate large-scale substitution; waiting for it to mature would leave citizens freezing through winter. Oil from the Middle East or the U.S. is too distant—'distant water cannot quench immediate thirst,' and reliance on such imports still leaves Europe vulnerable to external pressure on its lifeline. That leaves only 'traditional energy'—coal. Hence, Germany’s 'coal revival' is a forced measure—not a rejection of new energy. Moreover, Britain, France, and other European nations have recently also ramped up coal consumption. This energy crisis will likely prompt European countries to prioritize new energy development even more urgently. After all, no one wishes to remain perpetually at the mercy of others’ control. From a longer-term perspective—and pending a breakthrough in controllable nuclear fusion technology—new energy remains the sole viable path toward lasting 'energy independence' for Europe and the world alike. Conventional fossil fuels, after all, are finite. II. Xu Xiang’s Ex-Wife Bears a Negative View on Tianqi Lithium Xu Xiang’s ex-wife’s statement reflects more a short-term outlook on Tianqi Lithium than skepticism toward the broader industry. 'Tianqi Lithium’s 'Davis Double Play' has peaked; its stock price is now overvalued.' What is the 'Davis Double Play'? Simply put: 'Earnings and valuation rise simultaneously, driving explosive stock gains.' Let’s examine Tianqi Lithium’s situation. On the earnings front, the company’s net profit surged 1,442.65% year-on-year in Q1 2022—an outstanding performance. On the stock price front, since its low point on April 27, Tianqi Lithium soared 155.9% in just over two months—indeed achieving the Davis Double Play. As Xu Xiang’s former spouse, Ying Ying likely absorbed some of his trend-investing 'secrets.' Thus, her bearish stance likely signals an expectation that the 'Lithium King' has risen too sharply in the short term, resulting in stretched valuations and mounting correction pressure.

Guanghui Energy (600256) Research Report

Therefore, based on field market research, Guanghui’s LNG heavy-duty truck replacement project—substituting traditional diesel trucks—exhibits extremely strong substitutability, owing to its substantial fuel-cost advantage. Complementing this, given the LNG heavy-duty truck segment’s potentially huge market, the rollout of refueling stations naturally follows. However, considering the mutual dependency between trucks and refueling infrastructure—and the need for synchronized progress—we identify execution risk in this initiative. Accordingly, close monitoring of the project’s advancement is warranted. The Company currently operates 33 LNG refueling stations in Xinjiang and aims to expand to 300 by end-2015. It currently owns 198 LNG heavy-duty trucks, targeting 1,500 units by year-end. The Company plans to reach 100 refueling stations and 6,000 trucks by 2010, and ultimately 300 stations and 30,000 trucks by 2015. II. Earnings Forecast 1. Earnings Estimate for 2009–2010 We conservatively estimate that the Company’s 2009 earnings will continue to rely on its traditional businesses—real estate, stone materials, and natural gas. Field research indicates robust real estate sales, generating approximately RMB 2 billion in cash inflows from property sales this year, plus roughly RMB 300 million in profits from 300 million cubic meters of natural gas sales. Preliminary earnings estimates thus range between RMB 0.55 and RMB 0.60 per share. In 2010, the Company completed its targeted share issuance, increasing its total shares by 111 million to 1.064 billion. Accounting for share dilution, and incorporating newly launched coal operations (conservatively estimating 1 million tons of coal transported externally at RMB 100/ton profit) and additional natural gas sales (200–300 million cubic meters), we conservatively forecast 2010 earnings at RMB 0.75–0.80 per share. 2. Earnings Forecast Beyond 2011 Our 2011 earnings projection assumes successful completion of the 2010 share issuance, granting the Company a 67% equity stake in the Hami project (the Company plans to fully divest its traditional businesses in 2011 and inject the remaining 33% stake in the Hami project; if realized, this would further boost our earnings expectations). Equity stakes in the Zaisang oil & gas project, Jimunai project, and Fuyun project stand at 49%, 79%, and 51%, respectively—with the remaining 49% stake in the Fuyun project also expected to be fully injected into the Company, further enhancing earnings if realized. According to the Company’s internal calculations, even after allocating all costs—including depreciation, amortization, labor, utilities, and other expenses—the fully loaded production cost of methanol from this coal-chemical project amounts to only RMB 667/ton. This includes coal input (4.56 million tons/year at RMB 30/ton), electricity, water, and other raw material processing costs estimated at RMB 200 million annually; depreciation and amortization at RMB 300 million/year; labor costs at RMB 100 million/year; and other operating expenses totaling approximately RMB 800 million/year. All remaining revenue constitutes profit. Clearly, the Company’s integrated coal-chemical production model confers significant cost advantages, making profitability highly probable and associated risks relatively low. 2.1 Hami Coal-Chemical Project ● Coal Production Capacity: The Company’s Nuomao Lake open-pit coal mine boasts an exceptionally low extraction cost of only RMB 30/ton. With the Lanzhou–Xinjiang High-Speed Railway Line II scheduled to commence operations after 2012, and under the national 'Coal Transport from Xinjiang to Eastern China' strategy, Hami’s annual coal export quota is set at 150 million tons starting in 2013. Given Guanghui’s dominant coal reserves share in Hami, its massive follow-up investments there, and its substantial contribution to local economic development, we estimate Guanghui will secure at least 20% of this quota—i.e., 30 million tons. Based on the long-term coal supply agreement signed between the Xinjiang Autonomous Region and Chongqing Municipality, the delivered price of Xinjiang coal in Chongqing averages RMB 650/ton. With the Ministry of Railways’ freight rate at RMB 0.12/ton-km, rail transport costs (including loading/unloading) from Hami to Chongqing amount to RMB 350/ton. After deducting extraction costs (RMB 30/ton) and miscellaneous taxes and fees (RMB 120/ton), Guanghui’s gross profit per ton reaches RMB 150, and net profit RMB 100/ton. Assuming conservative sales volumes of 5 million tons in 2011 and 10 million tons in 2012, this business alone could generate net profits of RMB 500 million, RMB 1 billion, and RMB 1.5 billion, respectively.

Naturgy posts earnings beat on higher energy prices

Apr 28, 2026

Spanish energy firm Naturgy reported a 5% rise in Q1 net profit to 530 million euros, beating forecasts due to higher energy prices and generation volumes. The company maintained its annual outlook despite revenue declines, citing improved 2026 visibility amid geopolitical gas price pressures.

reuters

2026-04-28

Naturgy posts earnings beat on higher energy prices

2026-07-22

Naturgy Expects Higher Core Profit This Year After Resilient First Half

Naturgy posts earnings beat on higher energy prices

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