Why did Dow raise its Q2 operating EBITDA guidance by 10%, and what specific supply disruptions drove this revision?

Dow raised its Q2 operating EBITDA guidance by 10% to $2.2 billion due to supply disruptions in polyethylene (PE) caused by the war in the Middle East and constrained supply of polyurethane (PU) chemicals from plant shutdowns, while demand for both remained stable or seasonally strong. Specifically, PE supply was disrupted globally, but Dow’s North and South American crackers and PE plants remained operational and advantaged by low-cost ethane feedstock; meanwhile, PU chemical supply was tightened by Covestro’s force majeure on MDI from Baytown, Texas, and LyondellBasell’s delayed restart of its Bayport, Texas propylene oxide plant — a key input for polyols.

How is Dow’s PE business performing relative to global peers, and what explains its competitive advantage amid the Middle East conflict?

Dow’s PE business is outperforming global peers because its North and South American crackers and PE plants remained unscathed by the Middle East conflict and continue to benefit from low-cost ethane feedstock — giving it a significant cost advantage over much of the world that relies on oil-based naphtha. While global PE supply was disrupted and demand remained robust — especially in the Americas — Dow’s facilities are running at full capacity, and industry-wide US Gulf HDPE margins have stayed above $1,500/tonne for nine consecutive months, the longest such stretch since Winter Storm Uri in 2021 — but unlike 2021, this time there have been no domestic feedstock, energy, or production disruptions.

Dow Raises Q2 Guidance by 10% on Strength in PE, PU Chems

Jun 9, 2026

Dow raised Q2 operating EBITDA guidance by 10% to $2.2 billion, citing supply disruptions in polyethylene and polyurethane chemicals amid Middle East tensions and seasonal demand spikes.

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