Futures Morning Trading Alert, October 16, 2020

Overnight, crude oil prices dipped sharply before rebounding—exhibiting significant volatility, with the largest intraday decline exceeding 5%. The latest EIA inventory data proved relatively supportive: both U.S. crude output and inventories posted substantial declines. However, refinery utilization rates fell short of expectations. Moreover, this week’s EIA data were heavily distorted by Hurricane-related disruptions; thus, the drop in crude production lacks sustainability. Currently, fuel oil’s absolute price remains low, with valuations near historical lows—limiting further downside potential. Yet upside momentum still requires stronger catalysts. From an inventory perspective, floating storage and domestic warehouse receipts remain elevated, and the fuel oil forward curve continues exhibiting contango. U.S. refinery utilization is seasonally weakening, constraining sustained demand growth for high-sulfur fuel oil—supported only by shipping activity. Meanwhile, for low-sulfur fuel oil, diesel crack margins remain depressed, weakening upward price momentum. Short-term recommendation: adopt a wait-and-see stance. Polyolefins Overnight, crude oil dipped then rebounded; EIA data were modestly supportive—but hurricane distortions undermine sustainability. Total polyolefin inventories stood at 725,000 tons, down 10,000 tons (1.36%) from the prior trading day; year-ago inventory levels were approximately 700,000 tons. Petrochemical de-stocking has slowed, yet overall inventory pressure remains manageable; most petrochemical producers hold firm on ex-factory prices, providing cost support to the market. Today, linear LDPE futures traded sideways with slight softness; market sentiment was muted, and downstream buyers increasingly resisted high-priced cargoes—resulting in stalled high-end transactions and minor price adjustments downward. Polypropylene (PP) USD-denominated spot prices edged up slightly, but market activity cooled; some end-users adopted heightened caution toward high-priced forward cargoes, leading to僵持 (stalemate) in actual trades. Domestically, imported PP homopolymer (fiber-grade) spot prices in RMB ranged between ¥8,180–¥8,230/ton. Petrochemical plant prices remained firm, and tight supply of certain grades continued supporting the market—yet downstream purchasing capacity contracted and buyer willingness weakened. Short-term recommendation: adopt a wait-and-see stance. Ethylene Glycol (EG) Overnight, EG traded weakly—failing to follow gains seen across other polyester-chain commodities. This stemmed primarily from market rumors claiming the EU would impose anti-dumping duties on EG originating from Saudi Arabia and the U.S., effective October 21. Such news triggered concerns that displaced volumes might divert to China—boosting domestic EG import volumes. However, per official EU notifications, while the EU indeed launched an anti-dumping investigation into Saudi and U.S. EG on October 14, 2020, the European Commission’s on-site verification visits are scheduled only between January 4 and February 12, 2021—to verify questionnaire responses and other submitted information. Claims of anti-dumping duties taking effect on October 21 are baseless. Currently, low import volumes keep East China’s main ports in drawdown mode; concurrently, improved downstream textile orders have boosted polyester demand—indirectly supporting EG. Near-term EG prices will likely oscillate around the ¥4,000/ton level. PTA Overnight, PTA traded in a narrow range. Recent futures prices strengthened, driven mainly by improved end-user orders—spurring higher sales volumes for downstream polyester products (polyester filament and staple fiber), thereby indirectly benefiting PTA.

2021 Ethylene Glycol Industry Chain Full Tracking: The Ultimate Handbook

In 2021, domestic ethylene glycol (EG) prices remained generally elevated, hitting two annual peaks—in early March and late October. The year’s lowest mainstream quotation stood at ¥4,000/ton; the highest reached ¥7,400/ton; the annual average hovered around ¥5,248/ton. According to monitoring data, the March price surge resulted primarily from acute supply-demand imbalance—demand outstripping supply. The bullish rally in late October stemmed chiefly from surging thermal coal prices, which dramatically raised producers’ operating costs. Concurrently, under China’s dual-control policy on energy consumption (targeting both intensity and total volume), frequent plant shutdowns and production halts sharply curtailed supply—pushing EG prices to their yearly peak. Subsequently, as supply-demand dynamics rebalanced and national coal-price controls took effect—lowering raw-material costs—the EG market gradually stabilized. December outlook: The domestic EG market maintained a prolonged sideways consolidation pattern, breaking out downward near month-end. In East China, spot prices ranged from a high of ¥4,993/ton to a low of ¥4,772/ton—a 4.43% decline. In South China, spot prices ranged from ¥5,325/ton to ¥4,980/ton—a 6.48% decline. 2021 Key Events: ① Severe winter weather in the U.S. forced multiple plants to halt operations due to force majeure. In the early hours of February 15 (U.S. time), a winter storm swept across the United States. Persistent blizzards strained electricity supplies, causing widespread blackouts across multiple regions; extreme cold also froze roads—some even closed. Affected by this extreme weather, numerous U.S. chemical facilities declared force majeure shutdowns—including several ethylene and ethylene oxide (EO) units closely linked to EG production. This event disrupted global resource allocation temporarily: U.S. and European markets surged sharply, while Asian markets—anticipating increased regional supply—remained comparatively weaker. ② EU anti-dumping measures on EG opened arbitrage windows between China and the EU. Starting May 14, 2021, the EU imposed provisional anti-dumping duties on EG imports from the U.S. and Saudi Arabia. Consequently, EG prices in Europe held firm, opening arbitrage opportunities for Chinese EG exports to Europe. Companies possessing export channels and qualifications to Europe purchased bonded inventory for export operations. ③ Commissioning of major new facilities significantly reduced China’s EG import dependency. Satellite Chemical, Zhejiang Petrochemical Phase II, and Gulei Refining & Chemical—all came online sequentially; additionally, several syngas-based EG units commenced operation. By December, China’s total EG production capacity had risen to 20.411 million tons. From January to September, domestic EG output reached 8.75 million tons, while imports totaled 6.33 million tons—reducing import dependency to 41.9%. ④ NDRC issued the ‘Plan to Improve the Dual-Control System for Energy Consumption Intensity and Total Volume’. On September 16, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) released the ‘Plan to Improve the Dual-Control System for Energy Consumption Intensity and Total Volume’, outlining targets: By 2025, the dual-control system will be more robust, energy resource allocation more rational, and utilization efficiency markedly enhanced. By 2030, the system will be further refined—energy intensity will continue falling substantially, total energy consumption will be reasonably controlled, and the energy mix will become more optimized. By 2035, mature and institutionalized systems for optimizing energy-resource allocation and promoting comprehensive conservation will strongly support post-carbon-peak stabilization and gradual reduction of emissions.

EU launches expiry review of anti-dumping duties on MEG imports from US and Saudi Arabia

1 day ago

The EU Commission launched an expiry review of anti-dumping duties on monoethylene glycol (MEG) imports from the US and Saudi Arabia, requested by European producers. Existing measures remain in force while the investigation proceeds over the next 12 months.

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2026-11-13

EU launches expiry review of anti-dumping duties on MEG imports from US and Saudi Arabia

EU launches expiry review of anti-dumping duties on MEG imports from US and Saudi Arabia

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