So far, this earnings season has been the best in history.

So far, this earnings season has been the best in history. This latest earnings season has only been underway for two weeks, yet 25% of S&P 500 constituent companies have already reported their quarterly results. According to a report released by FactSet last Friday, among these 25% of companies that have reported, 84% delivered earnings per share (EPS) above market expectations—a figure significantly higher than the historical average. For comparison, even during the robust bull market of 2020, the full-year average was only 77%. If this 84% beat rate holds through the end of the season, it will mark the strongest earnings season since FactSet began tracking such data in 2008. Moreover, this earnings season is not only broad-based—exceeding expectations across numerous sectors—but also exceptional in magnitude: the average EPS surprise among reporting companies stands at +23.6%, the highest since 2008; by contrast, the average over the past year was just +14.5%. Notably, both pandemic-beneficiaries—such as tech stocks—and pandemic-hard-hit traditional sectors—like airlines—have delivered remarkably strong results. Likewise, financials—the first sector to report this season—have posted uniformly strong earnings. So far, nearly every sector has performed exceptionally well, collectively driving what may become the strongest earnings season on record. In my main-channel video, I analyzed Goldman Sachs’ and JPMorgan’s earnings in detail; viewers interested in those insights are welcome to revisit that episode. Additionally, the report tracked forward guidance issued by companies. Among the 17 firms that provided guidance, 12 offered notably positive outlooks.

Continuing its rally! Is the U.S. stock market’s current rebound now firmly established? What lies ahead?

From a technical perspective, the S&P 500 index has today closed above all its short-term moving averages, indicating sufficient near-term upward momentum. However, judging from today’s daily candlestick pattern, the S&P 500 has reached the neckline of a ‘W’ double-bottom formation—making it uncertain whether the index will break through decisively in one go or first pull back slightly before ultimately breaking out and closing above the neckline. The Nasdaq Composite’s daily chart has not yet broken above all its short-term moving averages. It appears to be awaiting this week’s earnings reports from several major technology giants. Should those tech titans post better-than-expected results, the Nasdaq could likely surge upward and break out; conversely, if their earnings disappoint, the index may continue consolidating sideways—awaiting direction from next Wednesday’s Federal Reserve interest-rate decision. The Dow Jones Industrial Average has recently shown relatively strong performance, buoyed by a rebound in the energy sector. Today, the Dow’s daily chart has already climbed to its quarterly moving average, suggesting solid short-term upside momentum. That said, some traders believe the energy sector’s strong showing may not persist—citing potential headwinds such as a global economic slowdown or weakening commercial activity reducing oil demand, all of which institutional bears could exploit as justification for short positions. From a fundamental standpoint, starting this week, Federal Reserve officials have entered their pre-FOMC meeting blackout period and are prohibited from public commentary. During this time, the dovish signals the Fed sent last Friday will continue shaping market sentiment. Simultaneously, this week marks the peak of Q3 earnings season: approximately 150 S&P 500 constituents—roughly one-third of the index—will release results, including the U.S.’ five largest tech companies: Google, Amazon, Apple, Microsoft, and Meta. Market participants widely believe that as long as these mega-cap tech firms deliver solid earnings, overall U.S. corporate profitability will remain resilient—and the broader market may regain upward momentum via earnings revisions. According to FactSet data, among the roughly 20% of companies that have already reported, 72% have exceeded earnings expectations—suggesting corporate profits are holding up better than many investors had feared. Consequently, investors broadly anticipate that this week’s five tech giants will deliver further optimism to the market.

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