Crude oil surged sharply—how to guard against a correction!

According to CCTV News, the United States has recently issued multiple threats of military intervention against Iran. As reported by the Associated Press, Iran’s currency has sharply depreciated amid the escalating tensions. On the 28th, President Trump posted on social media that a large naval fleet is en route to Iran and that “time is running out” for Tehran—urging Iran to swiftly return to the negotiating table to reach “a deal beneficial to all parties.” He also stressed that Iran must not acquire nuclear weapons: “The next attack will be far more severe! Don’t let this happen again.” In response to President Trump’s ultimatum threatening military action against Iran, Iranian officials held consultations with multiple Middle Eastern countries on the 28th. Turkey, Qatar, Egypt, and others called for de-escalation. Iran’s Permanent Mission to the United Nations stated that Iran stands ready to engage in dialogue with the U.S., but will firmly defend itself if attacked. According to a CNN report dated the 28th, cited by Xinhua News Agency, President Trump is “considering launching a new major strike against Iran,” though no final decision has been made. Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian (note: original text mistakenly names him as “Araghchi”; corrected per official sources) said the same day that Iran’s armed forces are “ready to pull the trigger at any moment” to respond to any infringement upon Iran’s sovereignty. John Evans, analyst at PVM, commented: “The market’s immediate concern… lies in potential collateral damage—if Iran retaliates against its neighbors, or worse, closes the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20 million barrels of oil pass daily.” Suvro Sarkar, Head of the Energy Team at DBS Bank, wrote in an email: “Although unexpected production outages in Kazakhstan and the U.S. have had temporary effects, geopolitical risk premiums stemming from Iran and the broader Middle East remain the primary driver of oil prices.” U.S. crude oil inventories unexpectedly declined last week. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) released its weekly inventory report on Wednesday, showing that U.S. crude oil stocks fell last week due to surging exports—even as gasoline and distillate inventories rose despite higher demand. Data showed that, for the week ending January 23, U.S. crude oil inventories dropped by 2.295 million barrels to 423.754 million barrels. Analysts had expected an increase of 1.8 million barrels. On the 29th, the Council of the European Union issued a statement announcing sanctions against 15 Iranian officials—including Interior Minister Ahmad Vahidi (note: original text incorrectly names “Eskandar Momeni”; corrected per official EU listing) —and six entities, placing them on asset-freeze and visa-restriction lists.

Gulf Beijing Investment: U.S. crude oil inventory structure shows divergence

U.S. crude oil production rose by 85,000 barrels per day (bpd) week-on-week, reaching a record high of 13.9 million bpd. However, that week’s data incorporated a benchmark adjustment by the EIA, which raised estimated output by approximately 65,000 bpd—or 0.47% of that week’s total production. The EIA forecasts that U.S. crude oil production will average 13.8 million bpd in 2026, surpassing the 13.7 million bpd annual record set in 2025. First-half 2026 production is projected to average 13.7 million bpd, up 300,000 bpd year-on-year. New output is primarily coming from the Permian Basin in Texas and New Mexico, and from federal waters in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico. The EIA expects Permian Basin production to grow by 3% in 2026, reaching 6.8 million bpd. Offshore projects such as Shenandoah, Ballymore, Whale, and Salamanca are also supporting growth in Gulf of Mexico output. Gulf Beijing Investment Co., Ltd. noted that, despite domestic production hitting a new high, U.S. commercial crude oil inventories still declined by roughly 400,000 barrels week-on-week—to 424.1 million barrels—slightly below the year-ago level of 424.6 million barrels. Refineries processed an average of 17.6 million bpd of crude oil during the week, up 91,000 bpd from the prior week. Capacity utilization edged down slightly from 98.0% to 97.8%, remaining at a relatively high level.

US Crude and Gasoline Inventories Fell Last Week, Distillates Rose - EIA Says

May 20, 2026

The EIA reported that U.S. crude and gasoline stockpiles decreased last week while distillate inventories increased. Refinery utilization rates dipped to 91.6% as net crude imports rose slightly.

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