The Winter War Begins in August: Russia’s First Winter Without 'Cheap Diesel' Has Arrived | By Giorgio Provinciali

In fact, Russia’s seaborne exports of petroleum products dropped by 33% month-on-month in July, to approximately 3.9 million tonnes. Exports of diesel and light diesel collapsed even more sharply—by about 60%, to 750,000 tonnes. The Russian Federation could export more crude oil instead and retain available refined products domestically. Yet this solution reduces the value added from refining, intensifies port congestion, and increases dependence on tankers, pipelines, and loading capacity. The Central Bank of Russia has acknowledged that the ability to redirect crude oil for export is constrained by port and transport infrastructure. The valves are tightening continuously: sanctioned shadow-fleet tankers, rising port insurance costs, and Ukrainian strikes against oil depots and pumping stations are, in effect, squeezing alternative routes for crude exports as well. Thus, Ukraine’s strike campaign imposes a fourfold cost: reduced exports of refined products; increased fuel imports; higher expenditures on repair and protection; and longer, less efficient domestic fuel transportation. Nonetheless, an external factor continues to prop up Moscow: rising international oil prices, which market analysts expect will boost Russia’s hydrocarbon revenues for July by 60% year-on-year—even though the cumulative total for January–July remains below that of 2025. This eliminates the possibility of a near-term financial collapse in Russia. Pressure operates cumulatively: it erodes efficiency, compresses profits, diverts resources, weakens civilian services, and raises the cost of sustaining the military machine. (Figure: Information from the World Health Organization) A message released hours ago by the World Health Organization (WHO). They “forgot” to mention who destroyed the humanitarian warehouse in Dnipro—a second such attack within a week. The WHO is not the only organization in this domain to have “forgotten” who the aggressor is. In its statement on child casualties in Ukraine and Russia, UNICEF likewise failed to identify the root cause: Russia’s aggression. Amid all this unfolds another European paradox, glossed over by certain Western media outlets. Germany is not truly refusing to purchase gas. Purchasing and injecting gas into storage depends primarily on companies, utilities, and traders. Berlin currently refuses to order state-controlled firms such as SEFE and Uniper to buy gas regardless of price. By early August, Germany’s gas storage level stood at just 47%—the lowest historical level for this time of year. Germany holds over 20% of the EU’s total storage capacity, while overall European reserves stood slightly below 58%, the lowest seasonal level recorded since statistics began in 2011. Part of the problem lies in price structure. Gas purchased now is expensive, and forward prices do not guarantee sufficient profit margins for winter resale by storers. Reuters reported a lack of financial incentives for injection and estimated that reaching the EU’s 80% storage target would require an injection rate close to record highs—and possibly public intervention. European consumption is lower than in 2022, renewable energy generation has increased, and LNG import capacity has expanded. The baseline scenario points to high prices and reduced flexibility. An unusually cold winter, coupled with a prolonged disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, would significantly raise the risks of industrial rationing and competition for LNG cargoes. And this impacts Ukraine directly. Synchronization with the European power grid enables Ukraine to weather its most difficult periods—during Russia’s most intense attacks—by importing electricity. However, a more expensive European natural gas market raises marginal power-generation costs, shrinks the pool of affordable electricity, and narrows the buffer Kyiv can rely on when under attack.

What Did the Fed’s Second-in-Command Say? U.S. Stocks Plunge Late in Trading; OPEC Issues Warning, Oil Prices Tumble; This Giant Cuts 10,000 Jobs—Even It Can’t Withstand the Pressure

Most major U.S. tech stocks declined: Apple fell 0.95%, Amazon fell 2.28%, Netflix rose 3.15%, Google fell 0.74%, Meta (Facebook) rose 1.06%, and Microsoft fell 2.25%. U.S. airline stocks broadly declined: Boeing fell 2.18%, American Airlines fell 1.34%, Delta Air Lines fell 2.19%, Southwest Airlines fell 1.6%, and United Airlines fell 1.52%. U.S. bank stocks fell across the board: JPMorgan Chase fell 0.92%, Goldman Sachs fell 0.66%, Citigroup fell 2.27%, Morgan Stanley fell 1.0%, Bank of America fell 1.67%, and Wells Fargo fell 1.35%. Most popular Chinese概念股 (Chinese-American Depositary Receipts, or CDRs) rose: Miniso surged 29.42%, Dingdong Maicai rose 16.1%, Xunlei rose 11.71%, Hutchmed rose 10.91%, Canaan rose 10.04%, Tiger Securities rose 10.02%, Manbang Group rose 9.6%, Tuniu rose 9.5%, and Noah Holdings rose 8.64%. On the downside, TuChe fell 24.29%, Zhongyang Financial Group fell 9.85%, and TuSimple fell 7.55%. Among China’s EV-related CDRs, NIO fell 3.11%, XPeng rose 1.77%, and Li Auto fell 5.32%. Europe’s three major stock indices all rose on the 14th. The UK’s FTSE 100 index closed at 7,385.17 on the 14th, up 67.13 points—or 0.92%—from the previous trading day. France’s CAC 40 index closed at 6,609.17 on the 14th, up 14.55 points—or 0.22%—from the previous day. Germany’s DAX index rose 88.44 points—or 0.62%—to close at 14,313.30 on the 14th. On the New York Mercantile Exchange, the most actively traded December gold futures contract rose $7.50 on the 14th, closing at $1,776.90 per ounce—a gain of 0.42%. The U.S. Dollar Index rose on the 14th, climbing 0.34% to 106.6590 by the close of trading in New York—measuring the dollar’s strength against six major currencies. Gazprom Assets ‘Divided Up’ According to a Reuters report, Germany’s Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs announced on Monday that it would nationalize the gas importer SEFE to protect the company from bankruptcy. SEFE was formerly a subsidiary of Russia’s Gazprom and has been under German government trusteeship since April. The ministry stated that this move is necessary to ensure Germany’s energy supply, as SEFE faces imminent bankruptcy. Previously, the sharp decline in gas imports from Russia had inflicted multi-billion-euro losses on the company, forcing it—and other gas importers—to turn to expensive spot markets elsewhere for supplies. SEFE is the second company to be nationalized by Germany due to the energy crisis triggered by the Ukraine conflict, following Uniper. In addition to nationalization, the German government announced it would increase SEFE’s loan from state-owned development bank KfW from €11.8 billion to €13.8 billion.

Germany Tells State-Owned SEFE to Store Gas as Winter Nears

Sep 30, 2026

The German government has ordered state-owned SEFE to inject 8 terawatt-hours of natural gas into storage by December 15 to bolster supplies amid geopolitical tensions and unusually low winter inventories.

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Germany's SEFE Receives Ministry Order to Store 8 TWh of Gas

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Germany Tells State-Owned SEFE to Store Gas as Winter Nears

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Germany’s SEFE Promises Staff Special Bonus Tied to Its Sale

Germany Tells State-Owned SEFE to Store Gas as Winter Nears

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