Gasoline prices to rise nearly 0.3 yuan per liter tonight; Grade 95 gasoline approaches the '9-yuan era'

At 24:00 on September 11, the domestic refined oil price adjustment window opens again. Comprehensive calculations by multiple institutions indicate that retail prices for gasoline and diesel are expected to increase by approximately 360–400 yuan per ton in this round—equivalent to a rise of about 0.30 yuan per liter. If implemented at this magnitude, national Grade 92 gasoline prices will universally exceed 8 yuan per liter, while Grade 95 gasoline will approach the 9-yuan threshold. This will mark the 18th domestic fuel price adjustment of 2026—and the 12th increase this year. 01 The tankers in the Strait of Hormuz are the true price setters The core driver behind this round of price hikes lies thousands of miles away—in the Strait of Hormuz. Since the start of this pricing cycle, mutual attacks between the U.S. and Iran have kept the Strait effectively closed. According to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), daily volumes of crude oil and liquid fuels transiting the Strait of Hormuz have plummeted from 21.6 million barrels in Q4 2025 to just 4.9 million barrels in Q2 2026—a roughly 77% decline. The EIA notes that average monthly Middle Eastern crude production losses rose to 6.7 million barrels per day in August, up from 5.0 million barrels per day in July; global oil inventories have declined by approximately 400 million barrels so far this year. This supply-side contraction has directly pushed up international oil prices. On September 9, Brent crude futures surged past $100 per barrel—the first time since July 24—and have risen over 60% year-to-date. As of September 10, ICE Brent crude futures for November delivery stood at $102.13 per barrel, while NYMEX WTI crude futures traded at $97.21 per barrel. The EIA has raised its 2026 forecast for the average Brent spot price to $91 per barrel; Goldman Sachs warns that if disruptions persist, prices could climb as high as $120 per barrel. 02 'Twelve hikes, five cuts, one suspension': This year’s fuel price adjustment pattern is now set Once this round of adjustments takes effect, 2026’s overall adjustment pattern will be formally locked in as 'twelve hikes, five cuts, one suspension.' Cumulatively, across the first seventeen adjustments, domestic gasoline and diesel prices have risen by 1,720 yuan and 1,655 yuan per ton respectively compared to end-2025 levels.

Fuel price adjustment: Attention—expected increase of 330 yuan/ton; upward adjustment magnitude further widened!

Attention: International oil prices have crossed the $100-per-barrel threshold. Attention: Yesterday, U.S.–Iran maritime hostilities escalated dramatically—Iran announced attacks on ten vessels near the Strait of Hormuz, while the U.S. military sank five Iranian oil tankers. This marks the largest wave of vessel strikes since the conflict erupted, sharply intensifying market concerns over potential Middle Eastern supply disruptions. Here’s yesterday’s performance in the crude oil market: U.S. crude rose 3.25%, closing at $96.05 per barrel; Brent crude rose 3.36%, closing at $101.21 per barrel—the first time breaching $100 since July 24—and both reached their highest levels in nearly seven weeks. Today, international oil prices remain elevated: as of press time, U.S. crude trades near $96, while Brent crude trades above $101. On the Middle East front, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) announced it had struck two U.S. Navy destroyers, causing severe damage; meanwhile, the Houthi movement launched repeated attacks on Saudi Aramco energy infrastructure in Abha, Jizan, and Najran—several facilities caught fire and temporarily shut down, marking the first large-scale spillover of conflict onto Saudi Arabia’s domestic energy infrastructure. Former U.S. President Trump stated this conflict would be 'immediately ended' after the November midterm elections—but oil price recovery will take longer. Additionally, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has raised its oil price forecasts for both this year and next. Global oil inventories have already declined by roughly 400 million barrels in 2026, and the EIA has lifted its forecast for this year’s average Brent price by nearly 5% to approximately $91 per barrel. In shipping, crude throughput via the Strait of Hormuz has fallen to about 70% of pre-conflict peak levels; only six bulk commodity carriers passed through on Tuesday—far below the 10-day average of roughly twelve. Overall, international oil prices still hold upside potential in the near term. Short-term direction hinges on whether U.S.–Iran attacks continue escalating and whether navigation through the Strait of Hormuz can resume. With this round’s price adjustment window approaching, closely monitor related developments. How much will fuel prices rise this round? Let’s keep watching! Timing of this round’s fuel price adjustment: 24:00 on September 11 Region Grade 92 Gasoline Grade 95 Gasoline Grade 98 Gasoline 0# Diesel Beijing 8.09 8.61 10.11 7.81 Jiangsu 8.05 8.57 10.64 7.72 Chongqing 8.14 8.61 10.39 7.82 Liaoning 8.15 8.72 9.55 7.65

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EIA Raises Global Crude Oil Price Expectations for This Year and Next

EIA Raises Global Crude Oil Price Expectations for This Year and Next

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