How should we view the Houthi movement's renewed conflict with Saudi Arabia in 2026 and its strikes against targets inside Saudi territory? Could the resulting crude oil shortage cause industrial shutdowns in certain countries?

As of September 13, numerous Saudi oil facilities have been struck. Saudi Arabia holds approximately 15% of the world’s oil reserves, but its actual production share is lower. In 2025, Saudi crude oil output accounted for roughly 12% of global production; when including all petroleum liquids (crude oil, condensates, and natural gas liquids), Saudi output represented nearly 11% globally. Its refining capacity is even smaller—just over 3% of global refining output—and is expected to decline sharply in 2026 due to the conflict. If hostilities persist, Saudi oil infrastructure could be comprehensively destroyed, inevitably triggering significant global repercussions. China’s imports of Russian and Iranian oil remain largely secure. The U.S. is also highly unlikely to allow itself to face an oil shortage. The countries most at risk are those that neither purchase oil from Russia or Iran nor receive allocations from the U.S.—for example, Japan. On September 15, a Saudi refinery was struck. On October 3, the Saudi Aramco oil storage facility south of Riyadh was attacked; on October 5, the Rabigh Aramco refinery was hit; and on October 10, the Ghawar oil field—the world’s largest onshore oil field—was struck.

Saudi Aramco earned a staggering 104.7 billion yuan—but why has it sounded a red alert? What is the world’s most profitable oil company actually afraid of?

At the same time, the company announced its first-ever share buyback program—valued at $3 billion over an 18-month period—marking a departure from its longstanding reliance on massive dividend payouts to shareholders. Progress in business expansion: • The Jafurah gas field has commenced production; the Tanajib gas plant has entered operation; the company continues advancing toward its 2030 target of increasing natural gas sales volume by approximately 80% compared to 2021 levels. • The Marjan crude oil expansion project has entered commercial operation; the Berri crude oil expansion project has initiated water injection operations—enhancing operational flexibility to respond to market fluctuations. • In 2025, the company realized $5.3 billion in technological value from artificial intelligence, digitalization, and other solutions—bringing its cumulative technological value since 2023 to $11.3 billion. Its iktva program achieved a local procurement rate of 70%, with a 2030 target of 75%. Geopolitical crisis: The 'chokepoint' of the Strait of Hormuz Outstanding financial results cannot mask the deep concerns of CEO Amin H. Nasser. Speaking on the March 10 earnings call, he explicitly stated that the ongoing U.S.-Israeli war against Iran has brought the Strait of Hormuz—the global energy lifeline—nearly to a standstill. Strait closure and supply risks: The Strait of Hormuz handles about 20% of global oil trade, serving as the indispensable maritime corridor for Middle Eastern crude exports—and effectively the ‘chokepoint’ for one-fifth of the world’s oil commerce. Recent U.S.-Israeli military actions against Iran have virtually closed the strait. Shipping data shows a sharp drop in tanker transits, with near-total cessation of navigation. Several regional oil-producing nations have consequently been forced to cut output. On March 10, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) of Iran declared unequivocally that, if the U.S. and Israel continue their attacks, not “a single liter of oil” will be allowed to exit the Middle East. Earlier, Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson had warned CNBC that tankers passing through the strait must “exercise extreme caution.” Direct impact on Saudi Aramco: On March 2, a drone strike hit Saudi Aramco’s Ras Tanura refinery, triggering a fire. Although quickly contained and expected to resume operations shortly, the incident has already triggered global supply panic. A social media screenshot dated March 2 shows thick smoke rising from Saudi Aramco’s Ras Tanura refinery in Saudi Arabia. Photo source: Xinhua News Agency / Reuters As the “cash cow” of the Saudi economy, Saudi Aramco accounts for more than half of the government’s revenue. The Kingdom directly owns nearly 81.5% of the company, while the Public Investment Fund holds another 16%. Its operational stability is thus directly tied to Saudi Arabia’s national finances. Oil price volatility and global risks: This geopolitical crisis has directly caused severe oil price fluctuations: Brent crude surged to nearly $120 per barrel on March 9 before retreating to around $91.40 per barrel on March 10. Nasser warned that global oil inventories have fallen to their lowest level in five years—and are declining at an accelerating pace. If the situation deteriorates further, the chain reaction triggered by the conflict could spread beyond shipping into aviation, agriculture, automotive manufacturing, and plastics industries—inflicting catastrophic consequences on global oil markets and the world economy. He described this as “the greatest crisis” ever faced by the oil and gas industry across the region.

Saudi-Owned Refinery Bought Oil from Cyberattacked Tanker

17 hours ago

Saudi Aramco subsidiary Motiva received crude from the VL Prosperity tanker after it was hacked en route to Texas. The incident raises maritime safety concerns and potential impacts on US crude prices ahead of midterm elections.

bloomberg

2026-10-13

Saudi-Owned Refinery Bought Oil from Cyberattacked Tanker

Saudi-Owned Refinery Bought Oil from Cyberattacked Tanker

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