What is the World Bank's revised global growth forecast for 2026, and how does it compare to its previous projection?

The World Bank revised its global growth forecast for 2026 downward to 2.5%, from a January projection of 2.6%; this would be the lowest global growth rate since the Covid-19-induced global recession in 2020.

According to the World Bank, what are the main economic consequences of the Middle East war, particularly regarding energy prices and inflation?

The Middle East war has triggered a major supply shock—described by Chief Economist Indermit Gill as 'the biggest supply shock in more than 50 years'—causing a surge in energy prices, with Brent crude now projected to average $94 a barrel in 2026, up about 50% from the January forecast; this is pushing up inflation globally, with headline inflation forecast to rise to 4% in 2026 from 3.3% in 2025, and potentially reach 4.4% if the war persists.

World Bank Says Two-Thirds of Economies Face Hit From Iran War

Jun 11, 2026

The World Bank cut its 2026 global growth forecast to 2.5% due to Middle East conflict disrupting commodity flows and raising energy costs. With Brent crude projected at $94 per barrel, the bank warns of significant downside risks including potential food price spikes.

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