Stable supply! China plans to resume exports of three major fuels starting in May

Russia: As China’s largest crude oil supplier, Russia exported 10.067 million tonnes to China in March (approximately 2.37 million barrels per day), up 13.8% year-on-year. Brazil: Imports from Brazil surged 154% in March, reaching 5.03 million tonnes. Malaysia: Imports stood at 5.14 million tonnes, up slightly by 5% year-on-year. Indonesia: Indonesia jumped to third place among suppliers, with imports reaching 5.579 million tonnes that month—up dramatically from just 45,000 tonnes in the same period last year. According to market sources, much of the crude arriving from Indonesia is likely not domestically produced, but rather re-exported crude originating from a certain country (readers can probably guess which one). Through adjustments in its import structure, China has largely maintained stable total crude oil imports. This is no small feat: many countries are currently facing oil shortages, yet these exporting nations are willing to allocate newly added production capacity to China—even at relatively favorable prices—a testament both to strong bilateral relations and to China’s long-term diplomatic and commercial engagement. III. Supplementary News Items 1. UAE Aims to Boost Production According to Beijing Business Daily, having withdrawn from OPEC, the UAE seeks to increase crude oil output. Given that China has historically been its largest export destination, increased production will very likely translate into higher exports to China, enabling China to further optimize its crude import mix. 2. Pakistan Opens Six Overland Trade Routes Per India Today, Pakistan has officially launched six overland trade corridors, linking its three major ports—Gwadar, Karachi, and Port Qasim—with the Iranian border crossings of Gabd and Taftan. Due to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, Iran’s trade has suffered disruptions; these new land routes will help alleviate such constraints to some extent. 3. China’s May Export Resumption Is Modest According to OilPrice, China’s approved fuel export volume for May stands at 500,000 tonnes—only about 31% of the average level seen during the same period last year. Primary destinations include Cambodia, Laos, Australia, Bangladesh, the Maldives, and Myanmar, with priority given to supplying jet fuel to Asian countries whose aviation fuel inventories have fallen to critically low levels. Personal suggestion: Extend assistance only to friendly countries; those perpetually causing trouble should be left to bear the consequences—it would do them good. Summary: Amid today’s energy crisis, persuading exporters to allocate newly added production capacity to China—at relatively low prices—is exceptionally difficult. That China has achieved this reflects decades of sustained diplomatic and economic cultivation. As a major crude importer, China has long pursued supply diversification while securing large volumes of long-term contracts to suppress prices and ensure stability. Since the outbreak of the current conflict-triggered oil crisis, China has broadly guaranteed stable, unrestricted domestic supply. Although import prices have risen significantly, they remain below global benchmarks—evidence of China’s strong bargaining power and energy resilience. References: 1. Fortune Times: “China Plans to Resume Exports of Three Major Fuels” fortunetimes.sg/cn/?... 2. East Money: “May Refined Fuel Exports Fully Liberalized” caifuhao.eastmoney.com/... 3. Jinkuangchuang: “March Crude Imports from the Middle East Declined Sharply, While Russian Imports Surged” wap.315i.com/wapInfo/js...

2026 Commodity Import-Export Analysis: Crude Oil

• Supply Side: Production policies of OPEC+, Qatar/Australia (LNG), and Indonesia/Australia (coal) • Demand Side: China’s manufacturing PMI, winter temperatures in Europe and North America, and India’s industrialization progress • Geopolitical Factors: Conflicts in the Middle East, the Russia-Ukraine war, sanctions and counter-sanctions Commodity Import-Export Analysis: Crude Oil Analysis Date: April 2026 Data Version: V1.0 Part I: Export Analysis (Supply Side) 1.1 Top 15 Crude Oil Exporting Countries Rank Country Export Volume (thousand bpd) Share of Global Total Export Value (billion USD/year) Major Export Markets Core Enterprises Geopolitical Risk Implication for Trading 1 Saudi Arabia ~700–800 16.3% 210.6 China, Japan, South Korea, India, USA Saudi Aramco Medium (Middle East conflict) The ‘central bank’ of global oil prices, holding the world’s largest spare capacity—capable of stabilizing or spiking prices via production adjustments 2 Russia ~500–600 9.1% 117.2 China, India, Turkey Rosneft, Lukoil Very High (sanctions) A ‘discount supplier’ operating under sanctions; exports increasingly redirected toward Asia, deepening dependence on China 3 USA ~400–450 9.1% 117.2 Europe, South Korea, Japan, India ExxonMobil, Chevron Medium An ‘elastic producer’ post-shale revolution; production cost ~USD 40–60/bbl—the de facto ‘price ceiling’ 4 UAE ~300–350 8.6% 111.0 Japan, India, China, Singapore ADNOC Medium (Middle East conflict) A core Gulf producer; export capacity constrained by Strait of Hormuz blockades 5 Canada ~400–450 7.7% 99.6 USA (97%), China, Europe Canadian Natural Resources, Suncor Low The ‘dedicated supplier’ to the U.S. market; exports highly dependent on U.S. demand and U.S.-Canada relations 6 Iraq ~350–400 7.7% 99.5 China, India, USA, South Korea INOC High (political instability) OPEC’s second-largest producer; political volatility remains the biggest supply-side uncertainty 7 Norway ~150–200 3.9% 50.2 Europe, UK Equinor Low A stable source of light crude for Europe 8 Nigeria ~120–150 3.8% 48.9 Europe, India, USA NNPC, Shell High (pipeline theft, outages) Africa’s largest producer; output chronically undermined by theft and unplanned shutdowns 9 Kuwait ~150–200 3.3% 42.7 China, India, Japan, South Korea Kuwait Petroleum Corporation Medium (Middle East conflict) A core Gulf producer; exports vulnerable to Strait of Hormuz disruptions 10 Brazil ~150–200 3.3% 42.6 China, USA, Europe Petrobras Medium Pre-salt deepwater fields represent the main future growth driver 11 Kazakhstan ~120–150 2.8% 35.4 Europe, China, Russia Tengizchevroil Medium A key Caspian supplier; export capacity reliant on Caspian pipelines 12 Angola ~100–120 2.5% 31.3 China, India, Europe Sonangol Medium A vital African crude source for China 13 Libya ~80–100 2.2% 27.3 Europe, China NOC Very High (civil war) Output is extremely volatile—making Libya a ‘pulse variable’ for oil prices 14 Oman ~80–100 2.0% 25.8 China, Japan, India Oman Oil Medium A stable non-OPEC Gulf producer 15 Mexico ~80–100 1.7% 21.7 USA, Spain, India PEMEX Medium Output continues declining, eroding export capacity

Indonesia secures UAE oil supply commitment for up to 30 million barrels

17 hours ago

Indonesia secured a commitment from the UAE to supply up to 30 million barrels of oil to ensure fuel security amid Middle East disruptions. The agreement allows Indonesia to draw from the supply anytime, according to SKK Migas head Djoko Siswanto.

reuters

2026-10-27

Indonesia secures UAE oil supply commitment for up to 30 million barrels

Indonesia secures UAE oil supply commitment for up to 30 million barrels

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