Chemical Industry Dynamics | The 'Golden Age' of European Refining and Petrochemicals Ends Amid a Wave of Closures; China, India, and the Middle East Lead the Global Restructuring of the Refining and Petrochemical Landscape

Europe — The 'Golden Age' Is Over, Deep in a 'Wave of Closures' According to data from the European Petrochemical Association reported by MantaRay, approximately 30 refineries in Europe have shut down since 2009, and European refining capacity has contracted by 37% over the past decade. Analysts project that 60% of Europe’s total refining capacity is now at high risk—accounting for 45% of all high-risk refining capacity globally. By 2035, an estimated 40–50 refineries in Europe may close, concentrated primarily in France, Germany, and Italy, representing over 30% of Europe’s total refining capacity. In recent years, multiple petrochemical giants have withdrawn from the European petrochemical market. On October 6, INEOS announced it would shut down two key facilities in Rheinberg, Germany, eliminating approximately 175 jobs. These units produce epichlorohydrin (a core raw material for epoxy resins), chlorine, and caustic soda. On October 7, INEOS issued another announcement stating it would cut 20% of its workforce at its acetyl plant in Hull, UK—the largest production base for acetic acid and acetic anhydride in the Anglo-European region. Additionally, INEOS plans to shut down its phenol plant in Gladbeck, Germany (650,000 tons/year phenol, 409,000 tons/year acetone); shut down its propylene oxide and propylene glycol production units in Cologne, Germany; and withdraw from relevant working groups of the European Chemical Industry Council (Cefic) by 2026. In early October, ExxonMobil officially announced the suspension of two chemical recycling projects—in Antwerp, Belgium, and Rotterdam, the Netherlands—with an investment of €100 million. As a former major participant in the European petrochemical market, ExxonMobil previously sold portions of its polyolefin businesses in Europe (primarily in the UK and the Netherlands) to INEOS, significantly reducing its downstream petrochemical footprint in the region. In April 2024, ExxonMobil announced the permanent shutdown of its ethylene steam cracker and associated units in Gravenchon, France, with a capacity of 425,000 tons/year. In March, Shell announced it was exploring strategic partnerships in the U.S., while simultaneously planning to close certain European facilities—including its ortho-/para-xylene assets in Wesseling, Germany, and its methyl ethyl ketone (MEK) facility in Pernis, the Netherlands. In July 2025, the company upgraded its 'scope assessment' to a 'formal exit plan', deciding to shut down aromatic and olefin units at its integrated Rheinland refinery-petrochemical complex in Germany, as well as selected olefin and derivative units at Moerdijk, the Netherlands. It also plans to phase out its cracking unit at Mossmorran, UK, between 2026 and 2027. BP has sold all its petrochemical assets in Europe to INEOS, completely exiting traditional basic chemical businesses and markets in Europe. BP also plans to cut one-third of the capacity at its Gelsenkirchen plant. Meanwhile, Livorno in Italy has suspended crude oil processing, and Grangemouth in the UK may also face closure. LyondellBasell, between March 2024 and June 2025, implemented a series of exit measures, intending to sell four of its European olefin and polyolefin assets and related businesses to AEQUITA. The transaction is expected to be completed in the first half of 2026.

Global Ethylene Industry: How Much Capacity Has Been Shut Down in the Past Two Years—and What Are the Long-Term Impacts?

How much ethylene capacity has been shut down globally in the past two years—and what are the industry impacts? According to the latest statistics, over 9 million tons of global ethylene capacity have either already been shut down or are slated for shutdown since 2024—representing 4% of current global capacity. Wood Mackenzie’s ethylene asset benchmarking model estimates that 55 million tons of global ethylene capacity faces shutdown risk—24% of current global capacity. These high-, medium-, and low-risk capacities span 330 ethylene facilities worldwide, of which 114 have been assessed as facing high shutdown risk. The global ethylene industry is undergoing transformative changes that will significantly reshape the industrial landscape. This article provides a detailed overview of these ethylene capacities that have already been shut down—or are planned for shutdown. If any information herein is inaccurate or incomplete, we welcome corrections and feedback from our readers. I. How Much Ethylene Capacity Has Been Shut Down in the Past Two Years? ExxonMobil • 425,000-ton/year steam cracker in Gravenchon, France—permanently closed in April 2024. This unit had incurred cumulative losses of €500 million since 2018; its shutdown was driven primarily by high operating costs and outdated technology. INEOS • Announced in June 2024 its plan to shut down its 430,000-ton/year styrene production facility in Sarnia, Ontario, Canada, by June 2026. • Announced in July 2025 its plan to close its 500,000-ton/year olefin unit in Lavéra, France. • Plans to decommission its 350,000-ton/year ethylene unit at Grangemouth, UK, by the end of 2026. SABIC • Permanently shut down its 530,000-ton/year Olefin III unit at its Geleen plant in the Netherlands in April 2024. The plant’s 700,000-ton/year Olefin IV ethylene unit remains operational. • Announced in June 2025 the permanent shutdown of its Olefin VI unit at Wilton, Teesside, UK, with a capacity of 865,000 tons/year. This unit, commissioned in 1979, has remained idle since its maintenance shutdown in October 2020. Shell • Officially announced in July 2025 the shutdown of its olefin derivatives facility in Moerdijk, the Netherlands. • Officially announced in July 2025 the shutdown of aromatic and olefin units at its Rheinland integrated site in Germany. • Officially announced in July 2025 the phased shutdown of its 830,000-ton/year cracking unit at Mossmorran, UK, scheduled for 2026–2027. Eni Group • Its subsidiary Versalis restructured its Italian chemical operations and announced the retirement of cracking units in Brindisi and Priolo, with a combined capacity of 980,000 tons/year. Also retired were polyethylene plants in Sicily. The primary reason cited is the 'structural and irreversible decline' of Europe’s basic chemical industry. Dow Chemical • Announced in July 2025 its plan to shut down its ethylene cracker in Böhlen, Germany, in Q4 2027, with a capacity of 510,000 tons/year. TotalEnergies • Plans to permanently shut down its NC2 cracker in Antwerp, Belgium, by the end of 2027, with a capacity of 550,000 tons/year.

EPCA Analysis: European Olefin Industry Enters 'Capacity Reduction Competition' Era

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During the EPCA annual meeting, industry leaders projected sustained European olefin oversupply through 2027, driven by seven cracker closures and high production costs outweighing weak downstream demand.

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EPCA Analysis: European Olefin Industry Enters 'Capacity Reduction Competition' Era

EPCA Analysis: European Olefin Industry Enters 'Capacity Reduction Competition' Era

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